The trend in this poll covers the entire period of Clinton’s slow rise, both in Iowa and nationwide. It was with the release of this poll five months ago that Clinton reached her lowest point in Iowa, dropping into third (22.5%) in the polling averages behind Edwards (27.5%) and Obama (22.8%). Overall, the reason for the larger pro-Clinton swing in this poll is probably simply because of when the previous poll was taken. While the most recent ARG poll showed her lead increasing by only one point, and the latest Strategic Vision poll showed her moving from two points down to two points ahead, this fourteen point swing covers nearly five months, while the other two polls covered only one (see here for more information).
This consistent, slow Clinton rise reminds me of Dean’s consistent, slow rise during much of 2003. In the absence of major campaign events, both candidates dominate media coverage of the race. In a sense, Howard Dean was the “main character” in the 2003-4 primary campaign, even though he didn’t win. This time around, Hillary Clinton is the “main character” in the 2007-8 primary campaign, even though she hasn’t won yet. The key similarity is that both Dean and Clinton received more news coverage than other Democrats throughout most of their respective campaigns, which led to a consistent, slow, across the board rise in their poll numbers during time periods when there was no major campaign news story. Pew has consistent data showing Clinton dominating coverage (here and here, both PDF), and back in 2003 when I ran the ill-fated “empirical cattle call,” my data consistently showed Dean dominating news coverage during the second half of 2003. Until Clinton stops dominating news coverage, that coverage turns sharply negative, or a major campaign event happens that changes the direction of news coverage altogether, I imagine that this trend will continue.
And now, onto the numbers:
All State Polls Taken September 6th through September 29th Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
5
27.0%
22.8%
21.8%
10.2%
New Hampshire
Jan 08?
6
39.3%
19.5%
12.7%
8.7%
National
Feb 05
NA
38.5%
21.7%
13.5%
3.0%
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain
Hukabee
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$12.1M
$14.7M
$2.8M
$0.1M
$0.4M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
6
26.2%
15.7%
15.3%
8.3%
9.5%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
7
27.1%
21.9%
10.6%
17.2%
4.4%
South Carolina
Jan 19
3
16.5%
20.5%
20.3%
14.3%
5.3%
National
Feb 05
NA
8.6%
27.1%
18.7%
14.5%
4.2%
The Republican campaign remains extremely tight. McCain isn’t a player in Iowa, while Thompson isn’t a player in New Hampshire. Huckabee is starting to slip, and his time seems to be either ending or already over. Giuliani and Romney remain the top contenders, as they are 1-2 in virtually everything. Go Romney.
My averages are different from those at Pollster.com, because I use a simple mean while they use a trendline system. Mystery Pollster writes about that here.
Only announced candidates with 5% or more in most polling averages are shown.
National polling averages taken from Pollster.com. Virtually all early state polls can also be found at Pollster.com.
“Net Available Cash” equals cash on hand minus debts minus amount raised for general election. More information can be found at Open Secrets. Current numbers are not precise, as all data is not yet available.
For Democrats, early state polls that only include Clinton, Edwards and Obama in the questions were not included.
For Democrats, early state polls that include Gore in the question were only included when Gore-less results were unavailable.
February 5th is not actually a national primary, but due to the large number of states holding nomination events on that date, national polls are used as a placeholder.
