|
Iowa is close to picking a date:
State Republican leaders met via conference call last Friday night and agreed to "recommend" Jan. 3rd as their caucus date. Democrats have not picked a date yet, but Democratic sources say that -- contrary to rumors flying around last week -- the two parties are unlikely to split their caucuses over two different nights. So there ya have it folks, Iowa will be Jan. 3 (probably announced the week of Oct. 15 in a bipartisan way if it gets negotiated in time). It may have been necessary for Iowa to hurry up and grab a date before New Hampshire's Bill Gardner decided to snatch either the 3rd or the 5th. Now, N.H. either goes the 8th or leapfrogs to December.
While not a done deal, this is also not a huge surprise. by moving to January 15th, Michigan had put Iowa and New Hampshire in a real bind. A December caucus would have been a joke with a shadow of its traditional influence on the campaign. Now, the most likely calendar is as follows:
- Thursday, January 3rd: Iowa
- Tuesday, January 8th: New Hampshire
- Tuesday, January 15th: Michigan
- Saturday, January 19th: South Carolina, Nevada
- Tuesday, January 29th: Florida
- Tuesday, February 5th: Super Tuesday
If this is the calendar, the question is whether Iowa will still have the same impact it traditionally has on both New Hampshire and national polls.
On the one hand, in 2004, Kerry peaked in New Hampshire on January 24th, five days after the caucus. At that point, his average poll advantage on Dean rose to 15.4%, from a Sunday, January 18th, caucus eve average of Dean +10.7%. In 2000, Bush had basically no Iowa bump, moving from a deficit of 5.8% to McCain in New Hampshire on the eve of the caucus, to just 4.6% three days after the caucus. Gore's post Iowa bump had also hit its peak about three to five days after the caucus. So, having only five days between Iowa and New Hampshire could actually increase New Hampshire's impact on Iowa, as recent Iowa bumps had reached their peak, and begun to dissipate, within five days of the Iowa result.
On the other hand, it is important to remember that post-Iowa bumps are basically caused by a massive wave of positive, free media for the winning candidate. However, with a shorter window between Iowa and New Hampshire, the amount of free media time given to the Iowa winner will be restricted to, at most, the Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning following the caucus. By Sunday morning, the media will have moved on, and begun to focus on New Hampshire. Also, with both Democrats and Republicans holding contested caucuses, the amount of free media available to the winner will be smaller than in 2004. Keep in mind that the largest Iowa and New Hampshire bounces in history occurred in 1984, 1996, and 2004, the three cycles when only one party had a competitive campaign. By way of contrast, the most wide open primary season in the last three decades, 1988, saw the third place finishers in Iowa on both sides go on to win New Hampshire eight days later.
My guess is that the bounces the Iowa winners receive will be smaller than 1984, 1996, and 2004, but larger than 1988. On the Democratic side, it means that Edwards and Obama both have a chance at New Hampshire, but they will have to win Iowa and pull a little closer in New Hampshire before Iowa to pull it off. On the Republican side, it means that Romney probably won't score a knockout blow with a double win in Iowa and New Hampshire, which will set up South Carolina on January 19th as a huge, three-way showdown for the nomination between Giuliani, Romney and Thompson. This also means that it is entirely possible Democrats will know our nominee by January 9th, or possible even January 4th. If Clinton wins either Iowa or New Hampshire, the campaign is probably over.
Oh, and I should add that there are only 87 days and a few hours between now and the start of the Iowa caucuses. Many of those days are holidays. Overall, there is less than twelve weeks of campaign time between now and Iowa. In 2004 terms, today would be the equivalent of October 24th, five full weeks after Clark had already entered the campaign. It is getting late.
|
STATE BLOGS
