Actual health reform opposition bears little resemblance to health reform debate

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 13:49


Gallup did a great service to the health reform debate yesterday.  In addition to asking people if if they would like to see their member of Congress vote for the health reform bill or not, they asked an open-ended follow-up question: why?

If you are interested in what people actually think about the health reform bill, you really should read all of the responses.  Not only are they great data points, but they have a level of honesty almost entirely lacking in the national media discourse on the bill.  You can read them all here.

While reading through the reasons people gave for opposing the bill, several things stuck out:

  1. Little of the opposition comes from the left.  Of the 508 responses for people who opposed the bill, only 20 gave reasons that strongly suggested left-wing opposition.  75 others gave either entirely vague responses that might have been left-wing opposition, or focused entirely on the mandate without offering up any obvious indicators of right-wing opposition.  433 gave responses that were very unlikely to be based on left-wing opposition.  I have sorted all of the responses here, so you can judge my sorting for yourself (note: the file shows 436 responses that unlikely to be left-wing, but there are three doubles I can't identify).

    Even in the highly unlikely scenario where all 75 of the unclear responses were based on left-wing opposition, that still means that only 19% of the people who oppose health reform do so from the left.  In the more likely scenario where the unclear results are split, or skewed significantly to the right, then only between 4-11% of the country opposes the bill from the left.   Those numbers would represent 5% of the population or under.

    This data is superior to vaguer questions such as "does the bill go far enough," which can have many conflicting meanings to the general population.

  2. People don't care about process.  Only about 3% of those who opposed the bill focused on process issues like not being bipartisan, moving too quickly, or the use of budget reconciliation. Most of the opposition was substantive-opposed to the methodology) or ideological (opposed to the purpose).

    A such, it seems that Democrats should do well when Republicans are complaining about process.  The main arguments that seem to be working for Republicans are complaints about the cost, socialized medicine, government takeover, and that you shouldn't have to pay for other people's insurance.  When Republicans are not hitting on those points, they are ignoring the most successful arguments against the bill.

  3. Abortion a minimal factor. Even though Stupak bloc seems to represent the biggest obstavle to passing the bill, only 2-3% of those who opposed the bill mentioned "funding abortions" as their primary reason.  Stupak and his allies are catering to a very narrow constieuncy.
Good stuff.  I wish more polling outfits would ask open-ended questions like these, and release all of the responses online.  It provides much more clarity into what the country is actually thinking than just the topline poll numbers themselves.
Chris Bowers :: Actual health reform opposition bears little resemblance to health reform debate

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Cool! (4.00 / 5)
These three in a row were particularly priceless:

958 female 36 Florida Vote against I'M A HEALTHCARE PROFESSIONAL,AND IT'S RIDICULOUS.

Well, that settles it then!

961 female 40 Utah Vote against I JUST DON'T AGREE WITH IT. I LIKE CHOOSING MY HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS.

Whoever your insurer is, they must be the best-kept secret in America if they let you do that!

962 female 25 Utah Vote against I THINK IT SHOULD BE UP TO US IF WE WANT TO HAVE HEALTHCARE OR NOT.

Not to mention education, police & fire departments & the military!

Who needs civilization, when barbarism is soooo much cheaper!  And fun!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


I also liked... (4.00 / 2)
710 male 62 Illinois: EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE THEIR OWN HEALTH CARE, AND IF YOU CAN'T AFFORD IT, YOU SHOULD JUST DIE.

Gotta love the honesty of the answer.


[ Parent ]
I would think (0.00 / 0)
that most of the people who have "left-wing" objections are liberals who want the bill passed, like you Chris.

Reading through the responses, I was struck by how effective the right-wing propaganda has been. Good thing for Obama and the Dems that the Right never focused on the mandate.  


I hope they do (0.00 / 0)
especially if a mandate with no public option passes.  There's something really odious about the mandate that draws opposition across ideological lines.

This was always meant to be a temporary interim measure, even with a public option.  Without one it's even more so.  Let the people backlash against the mandate and blow up the whole jury-rigged system we're putting together.  This will force lawmakers to either return to the current status quo or have to do something real like Medicare for All or making every insurance company not-for-profit.


[ Parent ]
Move-On voters overwhelmingly support passage (0.00 / 0)
Not the leftest of the left but important nonetheless. Move-On supporters favor passage by 83%-17%.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

I've always wondered if pollsters could do this type of thing (0.00 / 0)
especially when idiot pundits on TV argue endlessly about why people are against the HCR bill, and I'm thinking, just ask the damn people.

But I'm worried that this could be somewhat unscientific, as more people would decline to answer the question of why than the simple yes or no on health care question.


Like I've said before, the reason why the opposition from the left isn't strong is because we didn't sell it well (4.00 / 1)
Outside of this and a few other blogs, I don't think we've convinced people that a mandate with no public option amounts to a giveaway of our freedoms to the insurance industry.

Too many of us have kinda just accepted this as a matter of course, as if passing a corporatist law requiring people to pay tribute to an insurance company as a condition for life (do we have anything else like that? auto and house insurance aren't the same) was a typically liberal or progressive thing.  What has happened to liberals in this country?  It looks like Kos wasn't the only one who was body-snatched.


what happened? (0.00 / 0)
Reagan and PATCO and the end of the Cold War, among other things.  there's been little organised internal pressure or external competition for the corporate elite in the u.s., and there still isn't (though a bit more, like this site).

[ Parent ]
very difficult choice (0.00 / 0)
Sometimes I feel like we're being played.

Everything we "win" has been watered down to the point of being a 49/51 victory. Whial everything they win is substantialy entact. Even when we have control, we can't gain back what was lost the last time the right was in power.

Something has to change, or the prophesy of Revelation is upon us.

Government by organized money is just as dangerous as government by organized mob..... FDR


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