Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 52-48 (assuming no caucus switches)
Senate forecast overview
Dems*
GOP
Not up for election
41
23
Currently safe
8
12
Sub-total
49
35
Current polling
2.67
13.33
Projected total
52
48
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
The 16 Senate seats that might switch partisan control Republicans would have to win all 16 of these campaigns to take control of the Senate (Campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18.5% or more are considered "safe," and not listed) Democrats: 2.67 (3)
Republicans: 13.33 (13)
In an attempt to make the Senate forecast a little easier on the eyes, I have produced a chart showing the polling averages only for the current frontrunners for the Democratic and Republican nominations. The full chart, which includes all of the primary campaigns and potential general election matchups, can be found in the extended entry. the methodology and notes to these charts can be found there, too
As disastrous as this looks, it is still possible for Democrats to have a more effective Senate majority in 2011 than they have right now. With filibuster reform pending, a 52-seat Democratic majority might actually be stronger than the current 59-seat incarnation. If the Democratic electoral situation improves, which could happen if the jobless rate declines and if Rasmussen polls become a smaller percentage of the averages, Democrats could keep a 54 or 55 seat majority. If combined with filibuster reform, a majority of that size would make Mary Lanrieu, Ben Nelson, and Joe Lieberman irrelevant.
There is still hope for change yet. More info in the extended entry.
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