While Dennis Kucinich's opposition to the health reform bill has taken up a good deal of attention online, a look at the vote count shows that the difficulty in passing the health reform bill comes overwhelmingly from the right-wing of the party.
Using Progressive Punch and David Dayen's latest whip count, here are how the "yes," "no" and "maybe" camps break down among Democratic members of Congress:
| Vote for HCR bill? |
Democrats |
Crucial votes, lifetime |
Crucial votes, 2009-2010 |
| Yes |
191 |
81.2 |
75.7 |
| Maybe |
37 |
52.6 |
44.5 |
| No |
25 |
53.1 |
39.5 |
The "maybe" group includes anyone from "lean no" to "lean yes."
The final group of members who need to be won over have voted pretty conservatively, both in 2009-2010 and throughout their careers. In order to win those votes over, some of the largest progressive organizations are now bringing the hammer down. MoveOn.org, whose members endorsed the bill by a vote of 83%-17%, is raising money for primary challenges against any Democrat who votes "no." SEIU is threatening to not only withdraw all support from Democrats who vote "no," but is even suggesting primary challenges, too.
The shift in focus from MoveOn and labor, combined with the ideological orientation of the Democrats who are publicly undecided, shows we have entered a different phase of the fight. While there will inevitably be some continued left-wing opposition to the bill, as we enter the final week of the process in the House the main focus is going to be about twisting the arms of enough center-right Democrats to finish the job.
In fact, even the activists and the organizations who continue to make efforts to improve the bill are an important part of the effort of passing the bill. While the focus in shifting overall, if the weight of progressive demands to improve the bill is lifted from the scale entirely, the balance shifts even more toward conservative Democrats. From that point, the bill could be further watered down, or sunk entirely.
In 2009, the left did a remarkable job raising public hell over the inadequacy of the health reform bill. Left-wing dissatisfaction was more than just an occasional, minor news story from August through December. They were a very big deal, and resulted in some important concessions. In fact, that there were any concessions at all, and that the bill didn't get even worse than the Senate Finance Committee version, is actually a pretty remarkable achievement. Usually, the only direction that legislation moves in at every point in the legislative process is to the right.
It was a hell of an effort, but agitation is winding down. Now it is time to force the right-wing of the party to pass the damn bill.
|