Rep. Stephen Lynch to vote no, endangers passage

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 14:04


Representative Stephen Lynch, who voted for the health reform bill in November and had been considered a "yes" in David Dayen's whip count, is now a "solid no" on the current bill:

Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) is a firm "no" on health care reform -- in large measure because he opposes the idea of any kind of excise tax on Cadillac plans, even one that's delayed for years and years.

That puts the vote count at 204 in favor, and 211 opposed, with leaners.  Pretty dicey on passage, to say the least, especially when you look at the 16 undecided, non-leaning votes in the count:

Jason Altmire
Melissa Bean
Chris Carney
Travis Childers
Henry Cuellar
Kathy Dahlkemper
Brad Ellsworth
Bill Foster
Marcy Kaptur
Jim Matheson
Harry Mitchell
Solomon Ortiz
Earl Pomeroy
Nick Rahall
Zack Space
Harry Teague

Additionally, I now expect Stephen Lynch to receive loads of concessions on future legislation.  By voting against this bill, be becomes more powerful in future negotiations, right?  So, let's track his rise to power after this vote.

Chris Bowers :: Rep. Stephen Lynch to vote no, endangers passage

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He's Massachusetts, right? (4.00 / 1)
Guess he's afraid of being Coakleyed.

All the MA reps are freaking out... (0.00 / 0)
Capuano, for example... some great leadership form Ted Kennedy's state... NOT!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
I do consider this leadership, actually. (4.00 / 3)
Why should working people be the ones to pay for covering the uninsured?  It's not exactly consistent with Obama's specific campaign promise to only raise taxes on people making over $250k, is it?  Not to mention that he ran very effective attack ads against McCain ridiculing the idea of taxing health care benefits.

I can't say it's "great" leadership because it's too little, too late; this issue should have received major attention at the outset, and this tax should have been a non-starter.


[ Parent ]
It would seem that Lynch is the only (4.00 / 1)
person in Congress opposing the bill from the left

"There's a difference between compromise and surrender, right? And this is a complete surrender of all the things that people thought were important to health care reform," Lynch told reporters. When asked what might cause him to vote for the bill, Lynch said: "There's one thing. If they put reform back in the health reform bill, that would change my position."

"We're paying the ransom, but at the end of the day, the insurance companies still hold the hostages, even after this is all done," Lynch added. "This is not meaningful reform."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...


[ Parent ]
I'm sure that Clyburn's whip count had him as a no... (0.00 / 0)
...before, 'cos he's been refusing phone calls and stuff like that... They should have known, at least...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


Wow (4.00 / 1)
Chalk this up to Brownophobia.

John McCain won't insure children

What concession would bring Lynch back to the "Yes" side? (4.00 / 3)
As long as its not a concession to the left, he may get it.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


Thought I just read that Kaptur was a no... (0.00 / 0)
Which would make this even worse...

Kaptur's an enigma... (0.00 / 0)
She's been talking up the bill for days, voted to move it through the budget committee... She sounds like a firm, yes, then she goes off into Stupakville with some of her comments, and then you think no...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
First Read: 5 votes away (4.00 / 1)
I'm consistently more optimistic than everyone.  Commenting about the First Read report, Jonathan Chait places the chance of passage at 75%. In light of the CBO report, I put it at 90%.

Hope you're right.... (0.00 / 0)
Intrade has it up to 78% as well...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
It would be really helpful (4.00 / 1)
It would be really helpful if you could post how that list voted last time and who was in the Stupak bloc.

If this passes it is no doubt going to be with some surprise last-minute flippers...

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.


And now d-day says Shuler undecided (4.00 / 1)
All sorts of nuttiness happening.


John McCain won't insure children

TPM says Lynch meeting with Obama this PM (4.00 / 2)
I wonder if Rahm will be there yelling at Lynch naked.

John McCain won't insure children

[ Parent ]
Well, sans the "naked" part. (0.00 / 0)
I can imagine F-bombs galore.

[ Parent ]
The "Cadillac" Tax is fine by me (0.00 / 0)
Right now, health insurance premiums paid by employers or to union members really constitute a huge gift to insurance companies, which, as we all know, do not pay out nearly as much as they take in.

Offering 'insurance' has been the way companies avoid raising wages--by betting that their employees will be afraid of major illness and keep them 'happy' by giving them these "Cadillac plans."

But it's been a con game all along, and I don't see why anyone really objects to breaking this stupid cycle.


Employer-Based Health Insurance (4.00 / 3)
I don't think anybody objects to breaking the cycle of escalating healthcare costs, as long as quality is maintained or improved. However, hope is not a plan. For a variety of political and special interest reasons the most effective cost controls are not contained in the current legislation. Thus the excise tax stands out as one of the few sacrifices that increasing numbers of middle-class workers are going to be making. Also, unions (among others) have a lot of concerns about the excise tax and whether it will disproportionately affect workers in high-risk occupations, for example.

The excise tax would be far more understandable and defensible if paired with real cost-saving and quality-enhancing improvements, notably:

* Availability of Medicare to anyone who wants it (the Grayson bill);
* Elimination of the health insurance industry's anti-trust exemption;
* ERISA waivers for states that wish to adopt single-payer systems;
* Prescription drug reimportation;
* Better effectiveness requirements for medical device purveyors.

The excise tax also breaks at least two of Obama's campaign pledges. Some people think politicians ought to do what they promise.

I should also add that an employer-based health insurance system is fundamentally flawed if the government expects people to continue paying rising health insurance premiums while they are unemployed. That's just nuts. If the U.S. continues to stick with an employer-based system, then workers who lose their jobs shouldn't have to pay premiums. There are at least a couple ways to fix that problem.


[ Parent ]
... (2.67 / 3)
What a piece of shit.    Way to fuck over 30 million people Lynch.  Time to primary your ass out of office.

Not just 30 million people (0.00 / 0)
But he is helping to bring down the entire Democratic Party as well. As disappointed as I've been in Congressional Democrats this cycle, it would be a disaster to have Republicans in control of the House and possibly the Senate.

[ Parent ]
He voted to suspend the rules (0.00 / 0)
so that the Senate bill could be deemed passed along with the budget reconciliation bill.

http://clerk.house.gov/evs/201...

Clearly not a guarantee of anything in the future, but he doesn't seem completely off the reservation just yet.


DEFEAT HIM!!! (4.00 / 1)
Not only should Democrats not vote for him, they should actually vote for the republican in his district.  

It is VERY rare for this to be the case.  It is never the case in a Senate race.  

However, no matter which party is in charge, the next Congress will not pass any major partisan legislation.  If the Republicans are in charge, Obama will have a good foil.  Even that should not be enough to support the defeat of Democrats in Republican leaning districts, because we would face an incumbent for years to come.  However, in Lynch's district, we could easily get the seat back in 2012 (or make it disappear after the census).  If we defeat Lynch, we would have better member of Congress after 2012, and we would be teaching a lesson to members from solid Democratic districts not to mess with the party on important votes.

A vote against Health Care Reform is a vote for ten 9/11s every single year!


Henry Cuellar (0.00 / 0)
was on CNN tonight and said he is leaning yes. He was already touting the bill.

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