Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 17:50
There are a lot of whip counts on the health reform bill right now. In the midst of the confusion, let me suggest a simplified metric on the progress of the health reform bill:
With droves of members of Congress still playing coy with the public, this should make things easy.
Tally the number of confirmed "No" votes who switched from voting yes in November;
Tally the number of confirmed "Yes" votes who switched from voting no in November;
Subtract #2 from #1.
If the resulting number is equal to, or less than, 1, then the bill looks good for passage. If the result is greater than 1, passage is in danger.
So, here we go:
Hopefully, that simplifies things, and makes it easier to understand the run of play. Then again, some of these supposedly "hard yes" and "hard no" votes have flipped before, so even this count is prone to confusion.
: Arcuri, Cao, Costello, Donnelly, Driehaus, Lipinski, 8 confirmed "Yes to No" votes Lynch, Stupak
(Note: even if he is undecided, Cao will never cast the deciding vote in favor. As such, he should be considered a "Yes to No" for the duration of the vote count)
: Gordon, Kucinich, Markey
3 confirmed "No to Yes" votes The results in a net of five votes for "Yes to No." That means the leadership needs to pick up four more "no" votes from November to pass the bill Update--Bobby Rush a no? CNN claims Bobby Rush is now a "no." Don't quite believe this yet. Best to wait for more info.
Update 2: Bobby Rush already backing off "no" stance; So much for Rush being a no:
@ryangrim just talked to Rep. Bobby Rush, he's already backing off 'no' vote. House staffer: 'he's a primadonna, he'll be a yes'
That was an interesting five minutes.
Chris Bowers :: "Yes to No" votes running 5 ahead of "No to Yes" votes; can run only 1 ahead at most
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