Allen Boyd has become the 5th confirmed "no to yes" vote:
Rep. Allen Boyd has flipped from no to yes on #hcr, @ryangrim is told.
But, as has become the pattern, health reform takes a step back at the same time. Jason altmire, who had been a good "no to yes" possibility, remains at no:
Congressman Altmire will vote against the health care bill.
Altmire is the sort of vote that could have broken the Stupak bloc. Losing him is a big deal.
Here is where the "yes to no" and "no to yes" votes stand. Remember that, at most, there can only be one more "yes to no" than "no to yes":
- 8 confirmed "Yes to No" votes: Arcuri, Cao, Costello, Donnelly, Driehaus, Lipinski, Lynch, Stupak
(Note: even if he is undecided, Cao will never cast the deciding vote in favor. As such, he should be considered a "Yes to No" for the duration of the vote count)
- 5 confirmed "No to Yes" votes: Boccieri, Boyd, Gordon, Kucinich, Markey
- The results in a net of three votes for "Yes to No." That means the leadership needs to pick up two more "no" votes from November to pass the bill
With the exception of Arcuri, and possible exception of Lynch, everyone in the "yes to no" group is in the Stupak bloc. Really, this is a fight to find enough "no to yes" votes to overcome the Stuapk bloc.
The best remaining "no to yes" possibilities who did not vote for the Stupak amendment are Baird, Kosmas, and Scott Murphy. The leadership needs two of those three, plus not to lose any "Stupak curious" members (Berry, Cuellar, Dahlkemper, Ellsworth, and Kaptur), or any other "yes" votes (like DeFazio and Rush) to pull this off. Or, they need to start breaking some of the harder "no" votes, or more dedicated Stuapk bloc members.
Really feels like threading a needle. At this point, it is safe to predict that there will be less than 220 votes for the bill, even if it passes.
Update: Brad Ellsworth is now a "yes." He was a yes last time too, but this is significant because he was "Stupak curious."
|
STATE BLOGS
