Update 6:18 p.m. Scott Murphy flips from "no to yes": Scott Murphy becomes the 7th "no to yes" vote. Leadership needs at least two more of those.
Update 6:05 pm--Barrow doesn't flip: A "no to yes" possibility disappears, as Rep. John Barrow stays a "no." Good thing Obama cut an ad for Barrow when he faced a primary challenger in 2008.
Update 2--Cuellar a yes: Rep. Henry Cuellar, who was a possible Stupak bloc member, will vote yes, just as he did in November.
Berry, Dahlkemper, Kaptur and Ortiz are the remaining "Stupak curious" votes.
Ortiz holding a press conference to announce his vote tomorrow morning.
Update--Rahall and Carney join Stupak bloc: One step forward, two steps back. Nick Rahall and Chris Carney join the Stupak bloc, giving "yes to no" ten votes. Post updated to reflect.
Suzanne Kosmas flips:
Kosmas, one of 39 Democrats to oppose a similar bill in November, said in an exclusive interview with the Orlando Sentinel that she decided to change her mind because the latest version addressed some of her previous concerns about its effect on small businesses and the federal deficit.
"I'm going to vote for healthcare reform," she said. "I know this is not a perfect bill. But in the scheme of things, it provides the best options and the best opportunities for my constituents."
This is now seven confirmed "no to yes" votes, against ten solid-seeming "yes to no votes." If the leadership can actually pick up just two more "no to yes," and hold down the rest of the no's, then they could pass the bill 216-215.
This is looking more positive than it was even just an hour ago. Getting Brian Baird would be huge for passing the bill without the Stupak bloc.
- 10 confirmed "Yes to No" votes: Arcuri, Cao, Carney, Costello, Donnelly, Driehaus, Lipinski, Lynch, Rahall, Stupak
- 7 confirmed "No to Yes" votes: Boccieri, Boyd, Gordon, Kosmas, Kucinich, Markey, S. Murphy
- This is a net of
two three votes for "Yes to No." Without losing anymore yes votes, the Democratic leadership needs to pick up at least two more "no" vote from November to pass the bill