The media? (0.00 / 0)

Who gives a fuck what the media wants in terms of caucus dates? How do they even get a seat at the table to offer their opinion on how parties conduct elections and citizens vote?

John McCain

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by: joejoejoe @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 20:02:26 PM UTC

Actually (4.00 / 1)

I bet youth participation will be higher with an earlier date, just with different youth. Instead of out of state students participating in caucuses on college campuses, college sutdents and high school seniors in Iowa itself will have a lot of time on their hands over semester break. What else will they be doing on January 3rd or 5th? I expect them to turn out across the state in resonably high numbers with the early caucus.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 20:19:52 PM UTC

I would think that (0.00 / 0)

the Iowa students would be active anyway in any year, no? So if that is the case without the out-of-staters wouldn't the total youth participation overall be less?

As a side note I remember reading that out of state youth were not that much of a factor in the Dean campaign in Iowa because Iowans didn't listen much to kids from out of state. I don't know how much truth there was to that report. I think you have spent time in Iowa during the primaries so what is your thought on the actual 'effectiveness' of out of state youth knocking on doors.

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by: talex @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 20:47:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

College students attending out of state Universities (0.00 / 0)

would have issues spending eight hours coming back from, say, Ann Arbor on a Tuesday to spend three hours voting in a caucus.  I think Chris has a very good point here.  Also, the youth vote is likely to be less concentrated in Des Moines and Ames, and therefore, will be much more relevant when they do show up, after the voters-->delegates formula is applied.  None of this is proven, but I think Chris has a very good point.

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by: Valatan @ Tue Oct 09, 2007 at 16:29:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably Right (0.00 / 0)

Chris,

This is probably right.  Additionally, this will likely turn out to be good news for Obama if Plouffe is correct that polls are underrepresenting Obama youth support.

The earlier caucus date means that young Iowans will be scattered across the state instead of clumped in Ames or other college towns.  That's more valuable in a caucus, where geographic diversity of support is just as important as total support.

Youth To Power: How Today's Young Voters Are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority

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by: Michael Connery @ Tue Oct 09, 2007 at 03:02:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Smaller Youth Impact (0.00 / 0)

I will have to disagree here. I've always believed that in a caucus, organization counts. When they are clustered on a college campus, young people are much easier to organize; they belong to a community that you can move into, where you can reach out to them, organize and mobilize them. Back at home, my guess is that the traditional outreach and GOTV methods of campaigns -- direct mail, phonebanking, and precinct walking -- will miss most young people. Why? Because they reside at their parents' address, use their parents' phone, and don't hang around the house on weekends.

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by: bignoise @ Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 00:54:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who The Hell Cares About Iowa? (0.00 / 0)

Really, it's just pathetic.

Nothing against Iowans, of course, but why should these two smaill states - Iowa and New Hampshire - count in such an outsized manner - for who wins?

This shows, really, how political realities diverge from actual realities.  The electoral and population reality is, that after Iowa and New Hampshire have gone to the polls, 98% of the votes have yet to be cast for the democratic nomination.

And yet, the media's focus will then shift the electoral reality, by the constant drumbeat of how important these early wins are.

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by: JC @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 20:57:38 PM UTC

so Iowa caucuses will be before the college championship (0.00 / 0)

how times have changed.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

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by: Hopeful in NJ @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 21:06:49 PM UTC

I agree with Chris. (0.00 / 0)

as long as it wasn't say... New Year's Day with everybody nursing their hangovers, I don't think it'll reduce participation in the Caucuses.

Early campaigning maybe since flights out to ANYWHERE are cost prohibitive around NYE.

Any which you slice it, I just want a damn date.

-C.

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by: neutron @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 21:37:04 PM UTC

this will reduce participation (4.00 / 1)

There will be no time to make the voter contacts that need to be made during the few weeks before the caucuses. You can't call people right before Christmas or in between Christmas and New Year's.

I think people will still be burned out from the holidays and are more likely to stay home.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 22:57:41 PM UTC

registration (0.00 / 0)

Do most students register where they live at school or at home?

I was registered at school when I was in college, but that was only 20 miles from home, so it wasn't a big deal. But for some students that are registered at school and their home is 2,3,or 4 hours away, they might not want to go back to their precinct on campus for caucus night.

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by: adamterando @ Tue Oct 09, 2007 at 01:52:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Moot point (0.00 / 0)

It's a moot point.  Iowa has same day registration.

Youth To Power: How Today's Young Voters Are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority

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by: Michael Connery @ Tue Oct 09, 2007 at 03:02:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am working on an update (0.00 / 0)

to my work on how iowa impacts new hampshire. 

Here are a couple of examples, which would lead one to different conclusions.

In the 1988 GOP nominiation fight, Bush's poor Iowa performance would may have lead to his defeat in New Hampshire.  In the last pre-NH poll taken before Iowa, Bush lead Dole 41-22.  Bush finished third in Iowa, and five days after the Iowa Caucus Dole lead Bush 31-30.  Bush fought back over the weekend and to win 38-29.

I have not finished the analysis, but something similiar happened in the 1980 GOP nomination fight.

In 1984, however, Hart would have probably lost to Mondale.  The only poll I can find after Iowa but before the NH primary was taken 5 days after Iowa and had Mondale leading 38-23. Caution is advised, as no pre-primary poll caught Hart's win (I vividly remember a Nightline poll the night before NH showing Hart tied.) Hart won 37-28.

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by: fladem @ Tue Oct 09, 2007 at 12:27:55 PM UTC