Update 8:38 p.m.: Nate Silver has the differences between how folks were committed, and how they voted on the rule:
Among those Democrats projected to vote NO on final passage, five voted YES on the procedural vote: Jason Altmire, Marion Berry, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, and Harry Teague.
Among the four Democrats that the Times listed as undecided, Jerry Costello voted YES, but Rick Boucher, Dan Lipinski and Lincoln Davis (whom other sources regard as a solid no) voted NO. Bobby Rush, who was technically undecided as of this morning but was not listed by the Times that way, voted YES.
Harry Mitchell, projected to vote yes on final package, voted NO on the rules bill.
That projects to 218-220.
Update 2: Pelosi says Senate bill vote after 10 pm. Reconciliation after 11 pm. All times eastern.
Update: At least three Dems who have announced they will oppose the bill--Tanner, Teague, Altmire--voted for the rule. Final vote on Senate bill will get 221 or fewer supporters.
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The House just passed the rules of debate on the reconciliation bill, 224-206, with one member not voting. The final vote will be very similar. A couple of Dems might drop off in the belief that it will somehow help them win re-election.
(Update--The roll call has now been posted on line, and can be found here.)
The debate will last for two hours. Vote on the reconciliation bill will happen no earlier than 8:30 p.m., eastern.
If there are 224 votes in favor of the bill now, then either they didn't need the Stupak bloc, or the bloc was larger than the 6 reported yesterday.
This is an open thread for the ongoing debate. Watch it live online at C-SPAN.
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