Also, can we take a moment to come to consensus... (0.00 / 0)

... about who we like and don't like as progressive challengers?  We're still in primary season and I'd like to have a good discussion (maybe in a separate blog post) about who we think did well for us on HCR (Pelosi? Grijalva? Kucinich?) and who we think needs a challenger (Stupak?).

If they already have a challenger, who is it?  What are the available polling numbers?  Who do we want to use to push the Dems to be more progressive?

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by: jlars @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 15:26:29 PM UTC

suggestions: (0.00 / 0)

http://www.actblue.com/page/20...

http://www.actblue.com/page/bl...
(note specifically Doug Tudor and Saltonstall)

and Bill Halter

miasmo.com

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by: miasmo @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 16:21:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

re: primary (0.00 / 0)

should be somewhere at the top of the list

http://www.actblue.com/entity/...

http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

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by: The Big Hurt @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 16:56:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A Big Round Of Applause For The Republicans! (0.00 / 0)

Dems will NEVER learn that it flat doesn't matter what your ENEMIES think! They're not voting for you anyway! And certainly not this year after being told that Obama = Hitler all the time by Rush Limbaugh. Republicans under Bush understood this. They weren't afraid to push their radical agenda through Congress with Dick Cheney casting the deciding vote.

If their agenda had been anything decent for the American people Karl Rove would have his "permanent majority" today.

On HCR Reps absolutely refused to allow Democrats to capitulate to their hearts content! Yes, they capitulated a lot anyway, but not as much as they really, really wanted to!

It's interesting in remembering that if Republicans had been willing to give even 10 votes for HCR in the Senate and perhaps 20 in the House (not 20% of their caucus) they could have WRITTEN HCR whatever way they wanted.

Democrats were THAT desperate for "bi-partisan cover." Despite the warm feelings this Monday that they finally stood up to the bullies, it's sobering to remember that Olympia Snowe simply REFUSED to be crowned as Queen of the Senate. If she'd agreed she could write any piece of legislation she wanted!

We may YET see that on other issues if HCR becomes moderately more popular.  

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by: Cugel @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 15:41:42 PM UTC

This… (0.00 / 0)

...if Republicans had been willing to give even 10 votes for HCR in the Senate and perhaps 20 in the House (not 20% of their caucus) they could have WRITTEN HCR whatever way they wanted.

...is a really excellent point/reminder. If only Democrats would wise up and realize that the GOP's reflexive dismissal of everything could actually be a legislative boon. It means that the sky's the limit on Dem initiatives--at least 'til November.

"This ain't for the underground. This here is for the sun." -Saul Williams

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by: tru blu @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 16:03:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's the Economy (4.00 / 3)

Judging from the reactions of friends and family, not all of whom are political junkies, Democrats will get a modest bump and gain some badly needed enthusiasm as a result of the HCR victory.  By November, we will either build on the victory if the economy seems to be getting better or it can slip away if we don't have real progress on and a really strong message about the economy.  For what it's worth, I'm also noticing that even folks who don't read blogs and who are not from anywhere near central Florida really, really like Rep. Grayson's medicare buy-in proposal and his spine infused message.

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by: howardpark @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 15:41:58 PM UTC

"badly needed enthusiasm" (4.00 / 1)

Yeah, that's where Chris's numbers above are deceptive. They don't take into account voter intensity, which is where the Repubs hold the big advantage.

Speaking just for myself, my only enthusiasm is for purging sucky Dems through primaries. I'll show up to vote in November, but never will I spend another dime nor hour of my time for anyone but strong liberal candidates.

miasmo.com

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by: miasmo @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 16:30:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Intensity (0.00 / 0)

Has it ever been documented that any of the major polls or current polling methods do even a decent job of measuring intensity?

I know one thing, in Virginia in 2009 Democrats were way, way down by any measure of intensity and on Election Day, as I remember it Democrats underperformed the already dismal polls.  The intensity gap has always been a problem with abortion.  For decades reproductive rights has generally fared well in polls but the anti-choice side has always had an intensity advantage.

That all said, I think there is an excellent chance that yesterday/HCR marked a turning point in the intensity gap.

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by: howardpark @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 17:33:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen Distorts This Picture (0.00 / 0)

Unsurprisingly, Rassmussen is skewing these results.

The 4 Rasmussen polls average Dem: 35.75, Rep: 44.25, for a -8.5 margin, compared to all the rest.

Removing Rasmussen for the calculations produces an average of Dem: 43.16, Rep: 41.11, for a 2.05 margin.

You might think the 4 DKos polls would be big outlier the other way.  But you'd wrong: DKos polls average Dem: 43.75, Rep: 41.25, for a 2.5 margin, just modestly higher than the non-Rasmussen average.

You'd be better off looking to the Economist's 4 polls.  Their average: Dem: 45, Rep: 39.75, for a 5.25 margin.  Damn socialist capitalist running dogs!

If you simply replaced the 4 Rasmussen polls with a single poll entry averaging all four, this would result in Dem: 42.79, Rep: 41.26, for a 1.53 margin, which is my hunch for what's probably the most accurate.

If you replace ALL multiple polls with a single poll entry averaging them, the result would be Dem: 42.13, Rep: 41.65, for a 0.48 margin.

Which, IMHO, is probably the outer bound for how well the Reps are doing right now.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 17:06:14 PM UTC

If Democrats can pass meaningful financial reform (4.00 / 2)

before Nov it will have a much greater impact than HCR.  If they take a powder on banking reforms, I expect heavy losses.  

Everyone either loves or hates the HCR, it's baked in already.  But no one likes the banks, it's a big winner to hand them their hats pre-election.  Let the republicans defend Citi, BofA, and Goldman as much as they like.  And let them think about being the party of "no" again after the gang bang of HCR last Sunday.

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by: zot2323 @ Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 17:12:33 PM UTC