National House Ballot Update, March 30th

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Mar 30, 2010 at 17:15

With the arrival of new generic ballot polls from CNN, Gallup and Rasmussen, the National House Ballot is now almost precisely tied.

One bright spot for Democrats is that the median of these polls is more favorable than the mean.  Fourteen of the twenty-six polls show Democrats ahead, by a median of 1.5%.  The disastrous results for Democrats in Rasmussen polls throw off the mean a bit.  The mode actually shows Democrats ahead by 3, with a Republican lead of 3 being the second most common result. A numerologist might make something of that.

The other good news for Democrats is that, even though virtually all polls have switched over the registered voters from "all adults," Democrats have not lost any ground in two months.  We might be at the low point of Democratic electoral fortunes right now, with an improving employment situation ready to start sending it upward.  Then again, switchover to likely voters in September could send Democratic chances down even further.  Much of that depends on if the enthusiasm gap narrows or not.

National House Ballot, March 30th: Dems +0.1%

Poll Sponsor	Voter Type	Poll Mid-Date	Democrats	Republicans
Total	All	Mar 30	43.31	43.23
CNN	Reg. Voters	Mar 27	45	48
Gallup	Reg. Voters	Mar 25	44	47
Rasmussen	Likely Voters	Mar 25	39	46
WaPo	Reg. Voters	Mar 25	48	44
Daily Kos	Reg. Voters	Mar 24	48	42
Economist	Reg. Voters	Mar 21	47	42
CNN	Reg. Voters	Mar 20	45	48
Quinnipiac	Reg. Voters	Mar 19	39	44
Gallup	Reg. Voters	Mar 18	47	45
Rasmussen	Likely Voters	Mar 18	35	43
Daily Kos	Reg. Voters	Mar 17	47	44
DCorps	Likely Voters	Mar 17	44	43
Fox	Reg. Voters	Mar 17	38	42
Economist	Reg. Voters	Mar 15	44	45
NBC / WSJ	Reg. Voters	Mar 13	45	42
PPP	Reg. Voters	Mar 13	43	46
Gallup	Reg. Voters	Mar 11	47	44
Rasmussen	Likely Voters	Mar 11	35	45
Daily Kos	Reg. Voters	Mar 10	46	43
On Message	Likely Voters	Mar 10	36	37
Economist	All Adults	Mar 08	45	39
AP-GfK	All Adults	Mar 06	44	38
Gallup	Reg. Voters	Mar 04	47	44
Rasmussen	Likely Voters	Mar 04	37	44
Daily Kos	Reg. Voters	Mar 03	45	42
Economist	All Adults	Mar 01	46	37

Methodology

A couple of housekeeping notes:

1. Gallup is now releasing a regular tracking poll every Tuesday, just like Rasmussen. The other two weekly tracking polls, Daily Kos and the Economist usually release late Thursday or early Friday.  As such, the National House ballot will now be updated on the front page twice a week, on Tuesday and Friday afternoon.
   

2. A seat-by-seat House forecast will be updated every Tuesday and Friday, along with the National House ballot, starting on April 20th.