Crist would fare much better as an Independent

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 12:01

In the Florida Senate race, "speculation" has increased that Republican Governor Charlie Crist will run as an Independent now that he unexpectedly vetoed an elections bill passed by the Republican-dominated Florida legislature. While it is difficult to justify increased "speculation" as worthy of a news story, it is worth noting that Crist would greatly improve his chances of winning the campaign by running as an Independent.

In March, there were three polls (Daily Kos, PPP and Rasmussen) that surveyed both the Republican Senate primary in Florida, and a hypothetical three-way general election matchup featuring Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist and presumptive Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. While Crist trailed in both the Republican primary and a three-way campaign in all three polls, he was 17 points closer in a three-way general election than in a two-way Republican primary against Marco Rubio:

Crist deficit, Florida Senate campaign

Poll Republican Primary 3-way General election

Average 27.3% 10.0%

Rasmussen 24% 20%

PPP 32% 7%

Daily Kos 28% 3%
While Crist is clearly pretty unpopular and would still face an uphill battle, he actually has a shot in a three-way general election campaign, versus no chance in a three-way Republican primary.

Democrat Kendrick Meek would actually not be helped by this scenario, however. These same three polls show Meek 6.7% behind Rubio in a two-way matchup, but 10.3% behind in a three-way matchup.

In all three scenarios, Rasmussen is the outlying poll. Rasmussen shows the Republican primary closer than the other two outfits, and shows Rubio much stronger in either a two-way or three-way general election than the other two pollsters. There is good reason to wonder about Rasmussen this cycle, given how frequently it is the outlying poll in averages, but I will continue to include it in averages unless some sort of methodological flaw is found.

Chris Bowers :: Crist would fare much better as an Independent

Tags: Charlie Crist, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, Republicans, FL-Sen, (All Tags)

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Crist would fare much better as an Independent | 1 comments

I still... (0.00 / 0)

... would like to see how Crist polls in a two-way vs Rubio:

Rubio (R)
Crist (D)

The trick would be whether Crist could get through the Dem Primary against Meek, or if the White House could gently take Meek aside and having him stay in his House seat. That might be trickier not than say back in January.

What might damage Crist in this set up is that it's getting late in the game. If he had made the party switch when it became clear the polling numbers were dooming him (which frankly was last year), and strongly adopted some key Dem positions to get that base motivated while also drawing in the indies, perhaps he would have had a shot while the Dems circled the wagon around him.

I think the problem is that deep down, Charlie thinks of himself far too much as a GOPer. No matter how much the party goes batshit, he can't bring himself to leave the party. Even if he were a more cynical politian like Arlan, he'd have a tough time mouth support of even Dem policies to win a Dem primary unless the Dems completely cleared the field for him. With Arlan, he's so comfortable over the years of twisting himself into whatever position is needed to get elected that he doesn't have a problem with it. :)

John

by: tosh @ Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 17:47:59 PM UTC