The three-way special election in Hawaii's 1st Congressional district (May 22nd) is neck and neck, with the more progressive candidate a bit behind Ed Case (a former Blue Dog member of Congress) and Charles Djou (the Republican candidate):
Right now, the race is close: according to a Democratic source, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has conducted an internal poll showing Case at 32%, Djou at 32%, Hanabusa at 27%, and 9% undecided.
Even though the DCCC is supporting Case, these numbers are believable. The only public poll on the campaign, taken back in January, suggested a close campaign, with Hanabusa slightly behind, based on the underlying favorable ratings:
The poll also asked voters whether they had favorable or unfavorable opinions of the candidates, with Case rating highest at 42 percent, followed by Djou at 37 percent and Hanabusa at 33 percent.
Hanabusa had the highest unfavorable rating, 27 percent, compared to 18 percent for each of her opponents.
These numbers implied, even three months ago, that Djou had a chance and Case had underlying strengths that would help him offset Hanabusa's strength among organized labor and local endorsements.
Unless the unfavorables for both Case and Djou are driven upward, it is going to be difficult for Hanabusa to win this campaign. As such, it is worth wondering whether a Djou victory is all that terrible.
The only reason Djou has a shot in this campaign is because of the unusual, three-way race. Thus, even if he wins next month, he will have extreme difficulty keeping the seat in November when he will have to face a single Democratic candidate. Democrats will get this seat back pretty quickly, and there won't be a single piece of legislation from May through November that will be imperiled by a Republican victory here.
By contrast, if Case wins the seat, it will be extremely difficult to ever oust a Blue Dog from this D +11 district. Successful primary challenges are few and far between, what with the difficulty of recruiting primary candidates, high incumbent name IDs, and the virtually the entire Democratic and advocacy group infrastructure lining up behind every Democratic incumbent. If Case wins this seat, good luck getting rid of him.
Some will point out other considerations, mainly the impact a Djou victory will have on other campaigns in terms of diverted resources spent winning back HI-01, and a negative media narrative. However, the media narrative for Democrats in 2010 already stinks, and a congressional campaign in HI-01 won't really ever suck up that many resources.
Is a Republican holding a seat for five and a half months worse than a Blue Dog holding a seat for a decade or more? The answer is yes, if a Blue Dog ends up replacing Djou in November anyway. If Djou can be replaced with a strong, progressive Democrat, then the answer is no.
Progressives should hope that Hanabusa pulls this one out, and not sweat the Case vs. Djou result that much. Arguably, it is better for them over the long-term if Djou wins (although that is not a certainty).
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