Looks like Republican Florida Governor Charlie Crist will run for Senate as an independent:
It may be the worst-kept secret in American politics today, and it's apparently about to become a reality. Reliable sources informed me today that embattled Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, whose early lead in his US Senate Republican primary race against former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has essentially reversed itself in the polls, is preparing to announce sooner rather than later that he will leave the GOP and continue his run for Senate as an independent. Sources add that the speech Crist will use in his announcement is now being drafted.
This isn't a surprise, as Crist had been openly considering this possibility lately.
It also makes sense. Crist trailed Marco Rubio by 25.5% in the Republican primary for Senate:
Florida Senate, Republican primary, 60-day polling average
Rubio: 56.4%
Crist: 30.9%
However, in a three-way general election, he only trailed by 7%:
Florida Senate, three-way general election, 60-day polling average
Rubio (R): 34.5%
Crist (I): 27.5%
Meek (D): 25.3%
With the vote split three-ways, and $7.56M cash on hand (compared to $3.91M for Rubio and $3.37M for Meek), Crist actually has a chance in the Florida Senate campaign. He had no chance in the Republican primary, so this was an obvious, unsurprising, and necessary move.
At least according to current polling, this move does not actually help Democrat Kenrick Meek much. In a two way campaign against Marco Rubio, Meek only trailed by 6.0%, less than the 9.2% he trails by in the three-way matchup:
Florida Senate, Rubio vs. Meek general election, 60-day polling average
Rubio: 43.8%
Meek: 37.8%
So, this is actually a set back for Meek, at least right now. He is facing a larger deficit, and much more money, in the general election than he would have against Rubio. Then again, reaching 40% is a much more doable task for Meek in this state than reaching 50%+1 would have been.
What might help both Meek and Crist is that Marco Rubio is now under federal investigation:
Meanwhile, in a separate inquiry, the IRS is also looking at the tax records of at least three former party credit card holders - former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, ex-state party chairman Jim Greer and ex-party executive director Delmar Johnson - to determine whether they misused their party credit cards for personal expenses, according to a source familiar with the preliminary inquiry.
Even though Rasmussen will inevitably release a poll later this week showing Rubio with a commanding lead in the three-way general election, at this point it looks like all bets should be off in this campaign. Any of the three have a chance to win at this point, and with the situation so fluid, it is too early to declare a frontrunner.
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