Three new polls this morning show, on average, the Pennsylvania Senate primary exactly tied. Quinnipiac shows Specter up 2%, F & M shows Sestak up 2%, and Muhlenberg shows an exact tie.
Worth noting about these polls:
All are among likely primary voters. Quinnipiac has the largest sample size, with 945. Muhlenberg 407, and F & M has only 150. No matter the differences in sample size, the similarity between the three polls suggests the campaign is a toss-up.
Sestak has the strongest support, according to Quinnipiac:
Specter's support is slightly weaker than Sestak's as 34 percent of the incumbent's voters say they might change their mind, compared to 25 percent of the challenger's backers.
Specter would benefit from higher turnout, as he leads among all registered Demorats, according to F & M:
But the poll also shows Mr. Specter ahead 38 to 29 percent among all 404 adult Democrats surveyed if the likeliness of their voting was not considered.
While the trend in the ttacking poll suggests that Specter has stemmed the Sestak surge, Sestak still has room to grow:
Specter remains better known than Sestak, with a 50 - 33 percent favorability. By comparison, Sestak gets a 42 - 10 percent favorability, with 46 percent saying they don't know enough about him to have an opinion.
Sestak will surely become better known over the final week. It will, however, be difficult for him to maintain his better than 4-1 favorability rating. Those two trends--likely rising name ID, but a lower favorable ratio--might cancel each other out.
Polling over the next few days will provide further clarity, or lack thereof, on the campaign. One thing is for certain, however: there is no way that Specter could have won this campaign without all the endorsements from party officials and establishment progressive institutions. In a straight up match against Sestak, without any endorsements, Specter loses. This campaign is struggle between the rank and file of Pennsylvania Democrats, and their "leaders."
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