First election results thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue May 18, 2010 at 18:52


Kentucky update: AP calls Kentucky Republican Senate primary for Rand Paul.  On the Democratic side, Jack Conway  holds a strong lead of 13.2% with 37% reporting.

****

This is the first thread to discuss tonight's election returns.

  • Poll closing times:
    Kentucky 6 pm (all polls at 7pm)
    Pennsylvania 8 pm
    Arkansas: 8:30 pm
    Oregon: 11 pm

  • Live returns Politico has put together an excellent returns page for all elections, with easy navigation.  Bookmark it.

  • No exit polls: There will be no exit polls tonight, in any state.

  • Turnout light in Pennsylvania: Bad news for Specter, who needed less-engaged voters who had not heard of Sestak to turnout:

    But Charlie Young, a spokesman for the Secretary of State, says turnout in the state, where the weather is bad today, is low.

    "It's relatively light, with some higher concentrations out in the areas that have the special election for Murtha's seat," he says, referring to the battle for Pennsylvania's 12th district in the southwestern part of the state.

    Philadelphia's turnout, he says, is even lighter. "There are no lines anywhere," he says.

    This is born out by an official with a major union backing Specter, who says union hands doing get-out-the-vote work are reporting back that "turnout is abysmal."

    "People aren't fired up about Specter," the official conceded. "It's low statewide, and then in Philly it especially sucks."

  • Early returns will likely favor Specter: Philadelphia, which is strong for Specter, usually posts its returns earlier than the rest of Pennsylvania. As such, Specter should take an early lead, with Sestak gaining the rest of the night.
This is an open thread.  I will be live-blogging returns and numbers from Arkansas and Pennsylvania starting at around 8:30 pm eastern.
Chris Bowers :: First election results thread

Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

My guess (0.00 / 0)
is that Lincoln and Specter go down tonight.  What will be interesting is to see if the usual rule that undecideds break against incumbents holds.  

FWIW I think we lose PA-12 as well.  


Spector will go down, Lincoln will get mid forties and "win" (0.00 / 0)
But lose the run -off

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
Well, turnout is higher in PA-12... (4.00 / 1)
....so, that's good news.

The DCCC is very bullish about it... too confident, IMO.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


here (0.00 / 0)
http://www.theatlantic.com/mar...

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
lose, incumbents, lose! (4.00 / 2)
LOSE!

On twitter: @BobBrigham

A nice thing is Conway leading in the very early going in Kentuckey (4.00 / 2)
OOps well was leading when I started this comment, its going to be close and seesaw. Go Conway, beat Mongiardo into that ol' Kentuck soil.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


Conway slides into the lead 46% to 40 with 15 % reporting! (0.00 / 0)


--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
49.3 to 37.8 for Conway. This is looking alright. (0.00 / 0)
Mongiardo is a Democrat in the Nelson mold, and Conway has  a good chance to beat the Paul twig, a Tea baggard come November.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
According to CQ politics.. (4.00 / 1)
...if Conway is leading with 50% of the vote in, he probably wins the whole enchilada.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
I voted for Sestak (4.00 / 2)
And got my mom to vote for him, too.

I'd be really disappointed if Specter wins. I'd have to vote for him in November.


Kind of ironic... (4.00 / 1)
That normally we want high-turnout, especially in Philly... but opposite for this election.  I'm not really sure what that means. =)

Spector gets some extra support from people who don't pay attentiuon, but vote for names. (0.00 / 0)
Spector, being the Senator since reconstruction, has very high name recognition. People who have been paying attention, are two to one against Spector.  

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
Spector gets some extra support from people who don't pay attentiuon, but vote for names. (0.00 / 0)
Spector, being the Senator since reconstruction, has very high name recognition. People who have been paying attention, are two to one against Spector.  

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
this one can deleted too.. (0.00 / 0)
I am told double hits from one click can be dying mouse batteries...

I have new rechargeables installed.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
Ambinder reports Dems optimisitc, GOP nervous about PA-12 (4.00 / 1)
Dems meeting all their targets as of 3:45pm.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


Pretty please may I have a link. :3 (0.00 / 0)
I wanna read this. :D

[ Parent ]
Here (0.00 / 0)
http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
here you go (0.00 / 0)
http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

I wouldn't place much weight on it.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


[ Parent ]
AP calls it for Rand Paul (0.00 / 0)
No link but that's what it says at the NYT.  

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

Does Rand Paul (0.00 / 0)
have the good positions of his father -- opposed to the drug war, imperialism, etc. -- or does he just offer the batshit with none of the good?

Some of the good at least. (0.00 / 0)
Anti Iraq War, a Feingold-type on civil liberties, strongly supportive of actual checks and balances (edging out most Dems on this issue for sure), opposed to federal overreach on drugs (making him effectively opposed to the War on Drugs)...not too shabby. But he is named after Ayn Rand.

[ Parent ]
It isnt but, its butt. Butt he's named after M'ine Rand. (0.00 / 0)


--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
Actually his first name is Randal (0.00 / 0)
according to Wikipedia.  Don't know if the nickname "Rand" is actually motivated by Ayn Rand or just a nickname.

[ Parent ]
you know (0.00 / 0)
I think he does in part. I just poked around and you can tell it's a Republican primary: There's an attack site with his anti-Iraq war quotes, while Paul's site doesn't mention Iraq, talks about being in favor of Afghanistan and being harder on terrorists. (No visas for countries with terrorists.)

Similarly there's a post he has in repsonse to Grayson's attacks in which he says he's in favor of "local judges" on drugs and that the feds should no mandate 10-year terms for possession.

But he's really far right-wing. His issues site was depressing to read. I'm thinking of donating to either Dem.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


[ Parent ]
Opposing the drug war and "imperialism" is a good policy, ffs (0.00 / 0)
Its merely part in parcel of letting corporations run everything, the state isn't needed in in the Paultard's world view, just let well funded companies do all the imperializing.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
TPM says in KY-3... (0.00 / 0)
The Tea Party candidate beat the NRCC candidate. Anyone know if it's important?

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

Tea Party GOPpers beating Establishment GOPpers (0.00 / 0)
is, on the whole, good news because it suggests division among the "base" and a rejection of some corporate oligarchs.

The real question is how to exploit it - whether to benefit the Democratic Party, or to push that particular hegemonic Beast over the cliff (under the bus) as well.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
As Chris said the first reports are Philly and 2 to one for Spector. (0.00 / 0)
Now we start the climb.


--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


We were burning up the phones at DFA today for Halter (0.00 / 0)
Our people on the ground said they were overwhelmed by the response to the virtual phonebank tool. The netroots came through today in a big way for Halter.  Let's hope it's enough to send this election into overtime.


USER MENU

Open Left Campaigns

SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

QUICK HITS
STATE BLOGS
Powered by: SoapBlox