June 8th primaries could further shake up 2010 elections

by: Chris Bowers

Thu May 20, 2010 at 10:12

New polling shows that the June 8thh primaries could shake up the 2010 elections as much as Tuesday's primaries already did.

California Senate, Republican primary and general election
Two new primary polls in California show former Representative Tom Campbell's lead over Carly Fiorina shrinking in the Republican Senate primary.  M4 shows Campbell up 33%--28% (with 15% for Chuck DeVore), while PPIC shows Fiorina ahead 25%--23% (with DeVore at 16%).  This puts the 15-day average at 30.3% for Campbell, 25.7% for Fiorina, and 15.3% for DeVore.

A Fionia win--or, for that matter, a shock DeVore win--would certainly be good news for incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer.  In the general election, Boxer now leads Campbell by 3.5% (87% current win %), Fiorina by 8% (98% current win %), and Devore by 8.5% (again, 98% current win %).  Given Boxer's 72% current win % in yesterday's Senate forecast update, this improve the overall Democratic seante position by 0.13 seats (adjusting for slight error I made in Connecticut-should have been 98% win % for Blumenthal, not 100%).  Democrats are now forecast at 52.20 seats, their best total since Evan Bayh's retirement announcement.

California 36th Congressional district, Democratic primary
Another interesting poll on a June 8th primary comes from the Marcy Winograd campaign.  The poll, which was not released in full (not a good sign), shows incumbent Blue Dog Jane Harman at only 43%  support.  This conflicts significantly with an internal Harman poll released earlier in the week, showing her at 58%.

My takeways from these polls are that Harman is strongly favored in the campaign, but Winograd can score over 40%, improving on her 2010 performance.  To win, she is going to need a huge improvement in name ID and favorables over the final three weeks, combined with very low Democratic turnout on June 8th.  Given the relative lack of major statewide Democratic primaries in California compared to Republicans, this isn't impossible.  But it is a huge longshot.

Nevada Senate, Republican primary
Another big primary to watch on June 8th int eh Republican Senate primary in Nevada.  In the wake of her Chickens for Checkups fiasco, one-time Republican frontrunner Sue Lowden has crashed in the polls.  The 18% lead she enjoyed from late February through early April has been cut to only 5% by wingnut fave Sharron Angle.  Harry Reid is competitive with Sharron Angle in the general election, trailing by only 5.5%.  If Angle were to win the Republican primary, Reid might be able to hang onto his seat.

Arkansas Senate, Democratic primary runoff
Finally, to toot our own horn for a bit, the first poll on the runoff for the Democratic nomination in Arkansas Senate was first released here on Open Left yesterday by Democracy for America.  It showed Bill Halter leading incumbent Blanche Lincoln 48%--46%.  With Lincoln receiving less than 45% of the vote in the primary on Tuesday, there its a good bet that a a wave of anti-incumbent incumbent sentiment will lead to her defeat on June 8th.


Overall, while perhaps not quite as exciting as the May 18th primaries, June 8th seems ready to keep the anti-incumbent, anti-establishment buzz going strong.

Chris Bowers :: June 8th primaries could further shake up 2010 elections

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Why are progressives so AWOL on the Harman race? (4.00 / 2)
Chris, I am helping on the Winograd race for PDA, so I'm biased, but I am seriously confused by the lack of activity from progressive forces on the Harman race.  No one denies that Harman is a pro-corporate incumbent and a Blue Dog, including her.  No one denies that she voted for the Iraq War and helped Bush spy on us illegally.  And no one denies that this is a very blue district, a perfect place for a better Democrat--who, unlike the ones we are so happy about from Tuesday (including me), actually will fight Wall Street, support Medicare for All, and try to get us out of both Iraq & Afghanistan.
So where is everybody?  Tick off the groups that united together to help Sestak or Halter, and all of them are AWOL on the Harman race.  Why?
Two points to remember, and I'll end this little rant--Harman has $5M invested in Goldman Sachs; and Harman intervened with the NY Times to help convince them to delay their secret wiretapping story until after election day in 2004--she helped Bush win re-election.
What more should we need?

My sense (at quite a remove) is that (0.00 / 0)
you actually answered the question yourself. It's a v. blue district. The contrast is extremely clear, and extremely favorable to Winograd. It's a Dem primary. This is Winograd's second bite at the apple, and her name recognition is pretty high (right?). So why does she need help? Why isn't she more competitive already?

My suspicion--based on nothing but chatting with friends, reading blogs--is that unlike Sestak or Halter, this seems like, as you say, a race pretty much designed for the progressive candidate. So I think people are possibly thinking, 'Winograd's got this is she's any good--and if she doesn't get it, she's not.'

Not saying I agree with that--haven't really looking into it--but that's my guess.

[ Parent ]
never so easy (4.00 / 1)
If only it were that easy, but without the huge funding and the basic buzz provided by the unions & the netroots, do you think either Sestak or Halter would have done as well?  And Harman's husband is rich beyond imagining.
Marcy got almost as high a percentage 4 years ago, with almost no help, as Halter did yesterday with millions in help.  I'm glad Halter is doing what he's doing, and glad our side is helping him.  None of that explains our absence for literally the most progressive candidate we have running vs a Blue Dog.

[ Parent ]
No, but PA and AK (0.00 / 0)
aren't exactly, as you say, 'very blue.'

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my suspicion, at least. That Winograd is being ignored in part because the district is so blue and Harman's such a target-rich candidate. Doesn't make much sense, but there it is.

[ Parent ]
No, it doesn't make much sense (4.00 / 1)
Sestak and Halter may still very well lose their general elections.  Winograd, if she wins the primary, will most likely not.  Thus, Winograd represents a more worthwhile investment, if you will, than Sestak or Halter.

[ Parent ]
Not that I really like thinking about elections in those terms (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Totally agree (4.00 / 1)
For some reason liberals here - I don't know if this is true for other blogs - get excited over the wrong candidates.  They get excited over people like Joe Sestak, Bill Halter, and Elaine Marshall, instead of people like Jennifer Brunner and Marcy Winograd.

Don't get me wrong - I'm all for Sestak, Halter, and Marshall, but mainly because of the people they're running against.  Sestak, Halter and Marshall themselves are satisfactory, but nothing to really get the blood flowing - they're mainstream liberal Democrats with typically mainstream liberal positions, e.g. on health care they don't want to do nothing like Lincoln or Ben Nelson, but they don't want Medicare for All either; they settle into the middle position of a public option.  Don't get me wrong- it's good, but I don't know if that alone is something that really warrants all the excited attention they've gotten here.

Brunner and Winograd are the real deal here.  True liberals we can always depend on to do right by the people.  We've already lost Brunner and I feel like I and a few others here are the only ones in the world who care.  Are we gonna let the same thing happen to Winograd?

Oh, and while we're on the subject of June 8 primaries, support True Liberal Tracy Emblem for the Democratic primary in CA-50.

[ Parent ]
DFA is in.... (0.00 / 0)
They just sent me a solicitation on behalf of Winograd and Anne McLane Kuster in NH-2.  From the sound of it, these two races, along with the Arkansas Senate run-off, are going to be their main focus for the next two weeks.  Considering how PA-SEN turned around in the last few weeks, they ought to be eminently winnable.

"A fantasy is not even a wish, much less an act.  There is no such thing as a culpable or shameful fantasy."  -----Lady Sally McGee

[ Parent ]
Who would actually be the easiest general election opponent (0.00 / 0)
for Reid in Nevada?

Lowden has been damaged by the whole Chickens for Checkups embarrassment.

Tarkanian is (afaik) hardline anti-immigration and would drive Latinos to Reid.

Angle is a tea party nut.

I don't know much about any of them beyond these. Anyone else?


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