June 3rd update: Democrats 53.43 seats
May 28th: Democrats 52.67 seats
While the tea party wave in Republican primaries is dragging down GOP hopes in the 2010 Senate elections, progressive primaries are actually improving Democratic chances. The net result is that Democrats are making big gains on Republicans during the 2010 primary season.
Since April 14th, Republicans have slid backwards in the general election polling averages in 10 of the 12 states that have featured both competitive primaries and competitive general elections. The average general election loss for Republicans has been significant: 3.7% on the mean, and 4.9% on the median.
Here are the changes in those 12 states. The April 14th Senate forecast can be seen here, and the current Senate forecasat is in the extended entry of this article:
Change in Republican general election position, Senate campaigns, April 14-current
12 states with competitive primaries and general elections
| State |
Republican loss |
| Nevada |
14.2% |
| Florida* |
10.2% |
| Iowa |
7.0% |
| North Carolina |
6.1% |
| Pennsylvania |
5.2% |
| California |
5.0% |
| Kentucky |
4.7% |
| Ohio |
3.0% |
| Colorado |
2.7% |
| Arizona** |
2.0% |
| Indiana |
-5.5% |
| Arkansas |
-9.8% |
* = Compares mid-April status of Rubio vs Meek general election to current three-way standings
** = For both April and current forecasts, J.D. Hayowrth is considered to be the likely Republican nominee in Arizona, not John McCain
These nearly across the board improvements for Democratss come during a time when Democrats have not improved their standing nationally. According to Pollster.com, President Obama's net approval rating has dropped by about 2.5% since mid-April, and the national, generic congressional ballot has been stagnant, with perhaps a slight GOP gain. In other words, Democrats are improving in these states due to local campaign developments, not national trends.
A reasonable conclusion from this is that Republicans are being hurt by their primaries, while Democrats are benefiting from their primaries. This is as strong as any evidence yet available that the tea party wave in Republican primaries is a decided, net negative for the Republican party..
By contrast, Democrats have seen improvements as a result of their competitive primaries in Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and possibly Colorado (although in that case the Democratic improvement is more likely due to Jane Norton's emerging weakness). The only exception appears to be Arkansas, although Bill Halter's position against John Boozman has only deteriorated by 1.0% over the past two months, if the recent, absurd Rasmussen poll is removed from the averages. Blanche Lincoln's position has entirely collapsed.
The only clear case where Republicans were helped by a primary is in Indiana. In that state, the Democratic primary was brilliantly cleared by Evan Bayh's late retirement announcement, thereby allowing Republicans to suck up all media attention and get a boost as a result of their competitive primary. Oh yeah, and two tea party candidates were defeated by the establishment GOP choice in Indiana, too.
The tea party and other right-wing primary efforts are eroding Republican chances in the general election, while progressive efforts are doing exactly the opposite on the Democratic side. This primary season has been a tremendous help to Democratic Senate chances. In fact, without Rasmussen polling, Democrats now lead in enough campaigns to hold 55 seats in the Senate, which is a long way from an electoral disaster.
Complete Senate forecast can be found in the extended entry.
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