Here are the new numbers, including the best latest info on available primary cash. Also, with the primary calendar coming into focus, I have brought back the full table.
All State Polls Taken September 16th through October 9th Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$32.5M
$30.5M
$18.0M
$5.6M
Iowa
Jan 03
4
26.8%
23.8%
21.5%
10.3%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
5
41.0%
20.6%
12.0%
8.2%
Nevada
Jan 12
2
45.0%
16.0%
11.5%
6.5%
Michigan
Jan 15
1
42.0%
26.0%
10.0%
7.0%
South Carolina
Jan 19
2
42.0%
30.0%
8.5%
3.5%
Florida
Jan 29
4
47.3%
20.0%
10.5%
3.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
42.5%
18.4%
10.9%
3.4%
Clinton seems to be pulling away everywhere except Iowa. However, I am willing to bet that as the “inevitable” narrative runs its course, this will result in fiercer media coverage of Clinton, and at least a somewhat tightening of the campaign as it approaches January 3rd. the “inevitable” narrative is actually not very good for her campaign, since it heavily raises expectations making any stumbles, especially in Iowa, potentially more damaging than they were in the past. Still, for anyone to have any chance of winning the nomination except for her, those candidates must defeat her in Iowa. Anyone Clinton finishes ahead of in Iowa is finished.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain
Hukabee
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$9.0M
$16.0M
$6.5M
$-0.1M
$0.6M
Iowa
Jan 03
5
25.8%
15.6%
15.2%
8.6%
9.8%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
6
25.5%
21.3%
10.8%
16.7%
5.2%
Nevada
Jan 12
2
23.5%
29.5%
16.0%
10.0%
2.0%
Michigan
Jan 15
2
18.0%
21.5%
14.5%
12.5%
5.5%
South Carolina
Jan 19
3
19.0%
19.7%
18.3%
14.0%
5.0%
Florida
Jan 29
5
13.2%
28.8%
21.6%
9.0%
4.8%
National
Feb 05
NA
9.7%
27.5%
17.1%
13.9%
6.2%
I have kept Romney in front, for now, even though Giuliani leads in more states, in national polls, and in available cash. When it comes to the early states, I don’t think Giuliani’s narrow leads against Romney in Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada will hold should Romney win both Iowa and New Hampshire. When it comes to cash, Romney has plenty more of his personal fortune to burn, so he won’t be outspent. When it comes to national polls, if Romney does indeed run the table in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada, I have little doubt he will move into first both in Florida and nationally. That is simply too much of a momentum wave for Giuliani’s soft, small leads to hold off.
However, it should be noted that Romney’s continuing narrow advantage might be built on a house of cards. So far, he accounts for about 90% of all Republican paid media in this cycle, a number that won’t last much longer. When other candidates start to go on the air, it seems inevitable that his advantage in Iowa and New Hampshire will either shrink, or disappear entirely. If Romney loses either Iowa or New Hampshire, his position might fold almost immediately, and he could drop to third or even fourth place in a state like South Carolina. At that point, the campaign would be Thompson versus Giuliani, with Giuliani favored. So, while Romney remains narrowly in front, Giuliani is right on his heels.
Early state polls can be found here and here. Net available cash means cash on hand for the primaries minus debts owed by the campaigns. The primary calendar is not fixed in stone, but rather is the current best guess. Only candidates with 4.5% or more in most polling averages are included in the chart. Nomination at a glance archives can be found here.
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