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The conference committee may be over, but the resulting Wall Street reform bill still must clear passage in both branches of Congress in order to reach President Obama's desk. With the passing of Senator Robert Byrd today, this is now far from a guarantee. Here is the state of play:
In the House
Because of a deal made between Blanche Lincoln and the New Dems on derivatives, the House is expected to pass the bill. In all likelihood, the rule will be voted on today, and passage will occur tomorrow.
In the Senate
After the bill passes the House, it will go to the Senate. Senator Reid had been expected to file for cloture on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, leading to a vote on either Thursday or Friday. However, the outcome of the vote, and thus the process leading to the vote, is now in doubt. Its time for some vote counting:
- Narrow margin: Back in May, cloture was achieved on the Senate bill by the narrowest of margins, 60-40.
- Robert Byrd: Five weeks ago, Robert Byrd was one of the yes votes for cloture. Since he has passed away, that is one less vote for reform until West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin appoints his replacement. Such an appointment would be extremely likely to vote for reform, but is not available until the appointment is made. It now seems unlikely to me that the appointment would take office this week, as Governor Manchin would likely wait until after Robert Byrd's funeral. He also may wait until after July 3rd, a move which might prevent an election for the seat from being held in 2010.
- Maria Cantwell: Maria Cantwell (D-WA) voted against cloture five weeks ago. However, she was closely engaged in the process during the conference committee, and her specific concerns about the Volcker rule were met. As such, it seems very possible that she is now a "yes" vote, although she has not issued a formal statement to that effect. If she is a yes vote, that makes 60 votes for cloture.
- Russ Feingold: Russ Feingold was the other Democrat who voted against cloture five weeks ago. He was never particularly engaged in the process, and for a long time made no specific demands in return for his vote. When he did finally make some demands, it was a long, kitchen-sink type laundry list that could not be met on such short notice. Few, if any, of those demands were met (at least somewhat because Feingold did not engage the process), and as such he is likely still a "no." So, we stay at 60.
- Scott Brown: When Russ Feingold did not engage the process, it gave Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown enough leverage to force an egregious carve-out for hedge funds on the Volcker rule. Despite voting for the bill in May, and despite winning that huge concession during the conference committee, Brown is now talking about voting against the bill anyway because of a $19 billion levy on banks. It looks like Scott Brown has learned quickly about how to play Lucy to the Senate Democrats Charlie Brown.
- Chuck Grassley: Even if Feingold and Brown are no votes, and even if no successor to Robert Byrd is made this week, the bill could still pass with one more Republican vote. Enter Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley, who voted against cloture in May but did vote for final passage.
- Richard Lugar: The only other possibility of a "no to yes" vote is from Indiana Republican Richard Lugar. It's a longshot, but not impossible.
At this time, no one is in favor of opening up the bill again, and giving into Brown's demands to win his vote. That would create a procedural nightmare, likely delay passage the bill past the fourth of July, would give Wall Street lobbyists another shot to gut everything that has already been won.
However, the count is clearly extremely close right now, and very much in doubt. Nothing is guaranteed. As such, while this was supposed to be the week when we turned our attention to the Kagen confirmation hearings in the Senate, and the Afghanistan funding fight in the House, it looks like we still have a lot of drama on Wall Street reform in the Senate.
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