In a surprising, and ominous, move, tonight the House of Representatives, by a 215-210 vote, passed a rule guaranteeing a vote on the deficit commission recommendations in December, if--and this is a big if--those recommendations pass the Senate:
FDL has learned that in a last minute move, Nancy Pelosi sneaked language into the rule that the House is voting on tonight regarding war funding.
Embedded in the rule is the requirement that the House will vote on the deficit commission's recommendations in the lame duck session if they pass the Senate.
Now, its pretty bloody unlikely that you will round-up unanimous consent on any deficit commission vote in the Senate, so you would need a cloture vote to pass it (Senate rules will not be changed before January). In order for there even to be a cloture vote, you would need consent from the Senate leadership, and 60 Senators in favor. That is all unlikely for multiple reasons, including inevitable absentee Senators during any lame duck session, getting any Republicans to vote for a recommendation that raises any taxes at all, progressive objections to benefit cuts, and more.
It is, however, not impossible. Elites all have deficit fever, and it is attacking the intestinal linings of this country. Further, the weeks immediately following what will be a relatively successful election for Republicans (even if they don't take back either branch of Congress, they will pick up a significant number of seats) are bound to be a perfect moment for Democrats to act scared, and cave. Finally, President Obama has often used the language of crisis to discuss Social Security, and bends over backward to appear bipartisan and reasonable, so he may well support the recommendations. Given Obama's proven ability to persuade the base, his support would result in significant backing of the commission's recommendations from both activist and rank and file Democrats.
With little time to organize opposition to the recommendations once they are announced, the end result of this could be a perfect storm where there are 60 Senators in favor of those recommendations. It isn't likely, but it is possible, and given the damage it would do it is something that requires immediate organizing attention.
On a related note, here is a good video from Rep. Grijalva and Grayson on deficit hypocrisy: