Two weeks after the initial announcements, the actual financial numbers that matter for the presidential campaign have finally been released. The relevant data, which includes cash on hand, total amount raised for the primary campaign, comparisons to recent electoral cycles, and the breakdown of large and small donors for each campaign, can be viewed in two charts, here and here. This is one of the reasons why I so detest media coverage of campaign fundraising: not only are they overly obsessed with it, but reports almost always ignore the most important and relevant aspects of campaign fundraising. This includes:
Edwards has actually raised more money for the primary at this point in the campaign than Howard Dean did in 2003. At the end of September, Edwards had raised $27.9M, while four years ago at the same point Dean had raised $25.4M. Remember that Dean's fundraising haul was perceived as massive, and led him to opt out of public financing. The haul for Edwards is perceived in the exact opposite way on both counts.
Small donors have significantly increased their overall contributions from previous cycles. In 2007, small donors who gave less than $201 cumulatively have raised over $71M. By way of contrast, in 2003 they had totaled about $31M, and in 1999 they had totaled about $26M. However, because of the increase in large contributions, and because of the increase in the cap on large contributions, small donors are no closer to controlling the process than they were at any point in the past. The percentage of small donors in the presidential process has gone from 20% in 1999, to 18% in 2003, to just 21% today. And Democrats are not much better than Republicans in this front, pulling in 22% of their contributions from small donors compared to 20% for Republicans.
Current cash on hand left for the primary:
Clinton: $34.6M
Obama: $31.9M
Giuliani: $11.6M
Edwards: $10.0M
Romney: $9.2M
Thompson: $7.1M
The amount of public money Edwards and McCain can expect:
CFI estimates that were they to enter the public matching system, based on contributions to date, Edwards would be entitled to about $13.6 million and McCain about $10.9 million. If you add that to the cash-on-hand, Edwards and McCain each would have substantially closed the cash gap between themselves and their parties' financial front-runners.
So, Edwards and McCain are doing fine in terms of cash for the primaries. However, the spending limits might prove to be a barrier that they are unable to overcome.
New small donor presidential campaign rankings, 1999-2007:
Bush 2004: $87.0M (approximate, individual contributions multiplied by percentage of donations from those who gave les than $200)
Despite their great success in this area, candidates like Dean and Obama did not invent small donor fundraising, nor do they seem ready to break any records for the primary season (in terms of total contributions, at least). However, small donor fundraising, once a big story on the campaign trail, is now ubiquitous among top tier presidential candidates of both parties. Fully ten campaigns from this electoral cycle already are in the top twenty in this category, now. We seem to live in a more activist era where more people are willing to give small donations than ever before, even though small donors are not taking greater control of the process than before.
I'm glad the final numbers are in. It is also heartening to note that this is basically the last we will hear about fundraising in the 2007-2008 presidential nomination campaign. The next report isn't due until January 31st, only five days before Super Tuesday. At that point, the die will have been cast in the nomination campaigns, and the amount of money each candidate has will only be relevant for the general election.
