I knew going into Netroots Nation that I had to attend the panel on redistricting. How could I not, considering the GOP's renegade raid on the Texas congressional delegation in 2003? The video of the event can be seen at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) website, here. A preview press release from the DLCC explained:
"Redistricting and the Fate of Progressive Politics explains what the stakes are in this year's state legislative elections," Sargeant explained. "Right now, Republicans will control the drawing of 106 congressional seats. If Republicans were to pick up just 10 key state legislative seats this fall, they will gerrymander 134 congressional districts for themselves. If the GOP pick up 55 key state legislative seats, they will draw 178 of the 435 congressional districts-178 districts designed to elect Republicans.
"On the other hand, if Democrats were to win 10 key state legislative seats in this fall's elections, we will prevent the GOP from gerrymandering its way into an artificial majority that will affect congressional elections and politics for the next decade."
I can't possibly stress the importance of redistricting too much, and I plan to be blogging about it repeatedly through the elections and beyond. But I want to start things off fairly simply. My points are simple:
(1) Whatever your take on Democratic Party politics--and I'm personally quite critical of how Democrats (from Obama on down) have failed to break out of the Reaganite mindset--we can only do better by expanding the number of safe seats, and beyond that, the competitive ones. The stronger the Democratic majority, the more robust the internal debate can be.
(2) There are no guarantees, only opportunities, and this is a classic example of how opportunities are made.
(3) The current legislative landscape favors Democrats in redistricting. However...
(4) The make-up of Congress due to redistricting is extremely sensative to the outcome of key legislative races--both for potentially increasing Democratic strength and for undermining it.
(5) Democrats can make legislative gains--as they did in 2003-04, even when the national outlook isn't favorable.
(6) The GOP has been focused on redistricting for a couple of decades now, and the Democrats are finally getting into the game with a similar level of seriousness. Now is the optimal time for all of us to join in and help out.
Here are a few charts cribbed from the DLCC to help drive some of these points home. First, we see how Democrats have lost ground at the last two redistrictings, gaining ground in between:
As I said above, the current legislative landscape favors Democrats in redistricting:
But the shift of just a few key legislative seats could have enormous impacts. Taking the most crucial seats first, these are the impacts that Republican gains could have:
On the other hand, these are the potential impacts of Democratic gains:
Just to focus on how much impact only a handful of key seats could have, here's a pie-chart of view of what the 10 most crucial seat changes could mean for the GOP:
And here's a similar chart showing what the 10 most key Dem gains could mean:
As I said, this is only the briefest of introductions to what's at stake and the lay of the land. Whether you're enthusiastic or disgusted with national party and/or your local representatives, joining the battle to preserve and extend our control over state legislatures is key to creating further possibilities over the course of the next ten years... or, in the alternative, putting ourselves in a position of permanently playing defense.
STATE BLOGS
