The difference between Rasmussen polling and non-Rasmussen polling has reached new heights in tonight's Senate forecast. For the first time, the non-Rasmussen forecast shows Democrats performing fully 3 seats better than in the forecast which includes Rasmussen polls.
Senate Picture, July 28th, with Rasmussen
Most likely outcome: Democrats 52 seats, Republicans 47 seats, Charlie Crist one seat
Of the 100 Senate seats, 86 are either not up for re-election, or have a polling average where one party has a 100% chance of victory (if the election were held today). Among those 86 seats, there are 48 Democrats, and 38 Republicans. Here is a chart featuring the other 14 campaigns:
Senate picture, competitive campaigns chart, July 28th, with Rasmussen
The 48 currently safe Democrats, plus the 3.79 wins projected in these 14 campaigns, comes out to 51.79 Democrats, or 52 seats. Charlie Crist is also projected to win one seat.
Senate Picture, July 28th, without Rasmussen
Most likely outcome: Democrats 55 seats, Republicans 44 seats, Charlie Crist one seat
Senate picture, competitive campaigns chart, July 28th, without Rasmussen
The 48 currently sage Democrats, plus the 6.69 wins projected in these 14 campaigns, comes out to 54.69 Democrats, or 55 seats. Charlie Crist is also projected to win one seat.
Notes:
- * = Has primary challenger, but heavy favorite
- Methodology can be found here . No Research 2000 polls were used.
- The "current Dem winning %" column projects the chance of Democratic victory if the election were held today. It is not meant to predict the chance of the Democratic candidate winning in November.
- Every seat not listed here currently has either a 0% or a 100% chance of a Democratic victory.
Democrats are showing a distinct improvement in non-Rasmussen polling over the past two months, even as there has been little overall change within Rasmussen polling. They are now at 55 seats for the first time in over six months.
As the gap between Rasmussen and non-Rasmussen polls increases, I become more inclined to believe the non-Rasmussen forecast. Outlying polls, both by definition and by empirical observation, have more error than non-outlying polls. So, the further away Rasmussen moves from the average of all other polls, the more I think something is wrong with Rasmussen polling.
It wouldn't be the first time. In the past, Rasmussen has received a significant source of right-wing funding, and then proven to be the least accurate pollster in an election by erring massively in favor of Republicans.
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