Senate rules reform whip count, August 5th: Your help is needed

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 17:00

As the federal legislative session slowly whimpers to an end, the campaign to reform Senate rules will only heat up.  As such, today, I have a new Senate rules reform whip count.

For the first time, the whip count lists every potential and returning Senator for 2011 (see definitions of potential and returning in the note at the end of this post). This includes Senators for whom I have not found any statements on filibuster reform during 2009-2010.

I need your help to flesh out this whip count as much as possible.  Which Senators with unknown positions can you find statements for?  Which Senators who have made statements can you find more clarity on? If we are going to get anywhere in this campaign, we need an accurate picture of where every returning and potential Senator stands.

Please, post whatever additions or edits you can find in the extended entry.  There is going to be a lot more on this during the rest of August, and the rest of the year.  Any information you can provide will be helpful to that effort.


Senate Rules Reform Whip Count, August 5th
Among Returning Senators (48 plus Biden)

Potential Senators in 2011 (15 or 16)

  • Favor 51-vote Senate (2): Fisher (OH); Giannoulias (IL)

  • Favor / considering some sort of reform (7): Bennet (CO); Carnahan (MO); Conway (KY); Feingold (WI); Hodes (NH) Marshall (NC); Reid (NV)

  • Wary or lean opposed to 51 vote Senate, but not necessarily to other reforms (1): Sestak (PA)

  • Unknown (3-4): Boxer (CA); Melancon (LA); Murray (WA);  (Crist?)

Note: "Returning Senators" includes incoming Senators currently pegged with a 100% chance of victory, according to the latest Senate Forecast.  "Potential Senators" is a category restricted to Senators with between a 1% and 99% of being in the Senate next year, according to the latest Senate forecast.

Chris Bowers :: Senate rules reform whip count, August 5th: Your help is needed

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tiny edit (0.00 / 0)
Chris, thanks for this effort.  you should move Manchin to "Potential Senators", yeah?

No (0.00 / 0)
As he says, incoming Senators that he pegs with a 100% chances are listed in with the other returning Senators.  But maybe he could rename that list "Safe Senators" or something.

Tim Wolfe

[ Parent ]
if McCaskill votes for real reform (4.00 / 1)
I will eat my hat

McCaskill got 67-68 Senators to sign a letter ending anonymous holds (4.00 / 1)
but then it took just 1 (Jim DeMint) to scuttle the whole deal. That shows how unserious they were about it.

[ Parent ]
she can always be counted on (when it doesn't matter) (4.00 / 1)
[ Parent ]
I think (0.00 / 0)
the "potential Senators" count is actually "13 or 14." (I was amazed for a second thinking that our best-case scenario was 63 in the Senate, not 61.)  

I think Romanoff (CO) should be in that list as well, but I guess we'll find out presently how relevant that is.  (He seems like the type who just might join the 51-vote bandwagon.)

Tim Wolfe

Sorry, Chris (0.00 / 0)
But one other thing -- have you given thought to getting a count of Republicans who might vote for 51, or any reform?

Is it impossible that there might be optimists on the other side hoping to benefit come 2013?  Or do the politics make this a pointless question to ask?

Tim Wolfe

[ Parent ]

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