What happened???

by: Paul Rosenberg

Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 16:30




The most dramatic reversal in the pattern of electoral maps in US history between two presidential elections separated by just 8 years.

What possible reason could account for that???

Yesterday, Rachel Maddow did a segment "We Can Fact-Check, Gov. Barbor", which I think astutely recognized at least one part of an unfolding dynamic: It's not just Glenn Beck, there's a expanding effort to pull a Karl Rove against Obama, and re-position the Republicans as the post-racial party, as illustrated by an interview that Haley Barbour did with Human Events in which he tried to portary himself as part of the first generation of South--Republican's, natch!--who grew up with integration and experienced it as no big deal.

Of course, Barbour was lying through his teeth.   Integration was barely getting started when he was in college, and he placed his own children in private academies that were all-white until the last year his eldest son was in attendence.  Her guest, Eugene Robinson, outdid himself, and even pointed out the unusual nature of the 1964 election in which Goldwater, who voted against the 1964 Civil Rights Act, only carried five Deep South states plus his native Arizona.   But he didn't bring the full weight of this fact to bear, which I think can only be gained by comparing the 1964 map with the 1956 map.  The 1956 map was the most stripped-down version of the Democratic "Solid South" which can be found from 1876 onward (except for the Dixiecrat Revolt eleciton of 1948).  And the 1964 map, just 8 years later, was an almost exact mirror image.  Taken together, the two maps are perhaps the most dramatic representation of the overwhelming power of race in American politics you will ever find.

As the Republicans struggle mightily in the next two years to eradicate that history, we progressives would do very well to start amassing such images, particularly campaign ads, that can--at a single glance--bring the past that Republicans desperately want to eradicate, replace and re-write--vividly to life.

Paul Rosenberg :: What happened???

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What happened??? | 25 comments
What happened? (4.00 / 1)
Well, of course, all the Dixiecrat-Democrats became Republican.

"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."
Benjamin Franklin


Well, there was also a certain major transformative event (0.00 / 0)
that took place in late November, 1963, along with mainstream voter rejection of Goldwater's extremism and the JBS's racism. None of which obtain, in reverse form, this year. We shouldn't overestimate the teabag movement's reach and popularity.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

LBJ's Racism??? (0.00 / 0)
Good lord, Kovie!  What are you smoking?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
JBS = John Birch Society (4.00 / 1)


Did they get you to trade your heroes for ghosts? Hot ashes for trees? Hot air for a cool breeze? And cold comfort for change?

[ Parent ]
Thank you (0.00 / 0)
JBS = LBJ?!?

Has Paul been hanging out with Jan Brewer in seach of headless bodies in the Sonoran desert?

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
It's that liberal devil weed. (0.00 / 0)
It doesn't pay to smoke it and type at the same time. Gives you  dyslexia at times. Or so I am told. :-}

[ Parent ]
I Was Sleep Deprived. (0.00 / 0)
Honestly.  Should have been sleeping at the time.  And was shortly thereafter.  And just woke up again (around 1 in the morning) about an hour ago.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Now I'm beginning to worry (4.00 / 2)
Paul, get some rest. You're working far too hard.  

[ Parent ]
You're Right! (n/t) (0.00 / 0)


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Constructive Criticism (0.00 / 0)
Paul, I always respect your viewpoint, but I have to disagree with you on this one. What you've demonstrated is the relevancy of racial prejudices in 1964 (mixed in with the reaction to JFK's death, and the stark ideological battle between the Great Society and the New Right).

Trying to wield that as a sword now, 46 years later, is ineffectual and counter-productive.
A) It doesn't demonstrate to "swing voters" that you understand their contemporary concerns-that your ideas are relevant-but instead that you are more interested in an academic debate about people's motivations back before half of today's population was even born. People today care about jobs, health care, etc, and that's what they want to hear about, not Mississippi Burning.

B) Conservative ideas such as austerity need to be attacked directly on moral and economic merits (such as Krugman does), not indirectly through topics that are loosely (or at least more abstractly) associated.

C) In a moment of self-criticism here, we in the base tend to use accusations of racism and sexism as a means of tarring the opposition so that we can shut down dialogue, ignore policy choices, and avoid a hard look at our own culpability.

D) Belief in civil rights is an important pillar in the overall philosophy of social democrats, but if we elevate it to our primary tool through narrowly defined identity politics, we are 1) distracting from efforts to build a common, over-arching philosophy that resonates across sub-groups in a progressive coalition, and that means in part that 2) the progressive solutions to contemporary issues risk splintered support even within the coalition, and 3) the Democratic establishment has negotiating leverage as it can individually and incrementally intimidate each small group in a tenuous  coalition, instead of being forced to deal with the group as a whole.

I recall reading that when Barbara Castle first sought the Labour party's endorsement to run for Parliament, she stated

"I'm a socialist before I'm a woman".

That doesn't mean she didn't push for equality; on the contrary that is a large part of her legacy. But she was first, last, and always a figher for the rights of All vs. the rights of property, and her struggle for women's rights fit into and supported that larger framework.


So??? (0.00 / 0)
I'm not suggesting that this is a magic bullet.

I am saying that we can see a major lie coming two years away and it's a good idea to do something effective about it.

Of course, we've got to do other things as well.

"Walk and chew gum."  Don't I say that all the time?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Ok, that's cool (0.00 / 0)
but don't I get bonus points for a Barbara Castle quote?

[ Parent ]
Sure (0.00 / 0)
I'll even throw in a gold star.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
You've got a point (0.00 / 0)
Civil Rights has been a major unifying issue for Democrats since the 1964 Civil Rights Act. But it works as well as it does because the Republicans have so reflexively opposed it.

What happens if the Republicans cease to run on racism? Lee Atwater may have expected that to have happened by now. He was wrong on the timing, but it's going to happen. What do the Democrats do to unify their party and attack Republicans after that? What's the next issue to battle over and how do Democrats use it to win national elections?  


[ Parent ]
Fairly brilliant, man (0.00 / 0)
I watched the Maddow segment last night, too, but something was missing. Your maps.

Religion, too (4.00 / 1)
Jimmy Carter carried 10 of 11 states in the old confederacy plus the border states of Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, and Delaware.  He only lost Virginia by 23,000 votes.

Yes race was a factor but the hard push by Falwell, Robertson, et. al. for Ronald Reagan and every succeeding Republican was the second nail in the coffin.  They bought it, too, against an openly born again southerner who taught Sunday School.  Bill Clinton won six southern states (including WV) in both 1992 and 1996+ but Gore "won" none after Florida was taken away.  The NRA and the churches turned the heat on particularly in WV and Tennessee.  A key figure from that year:  Republicans won 82% of the white vote in Mississippi but Democrats won 91% of the black vote.  Race had trumped class.


Sure (4.00 / 1)
Of course there was a whole lot more that happened beyond those 8 years.  But that 8-year reversal was a big fucking deal.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
The change was a bfd, but race was not a major factor (0.00 / 0)
You're right that the reversal between the electoral maps of 1956 and 1964 was a big deal, but I would have to say that in each election there was a powerful incumbent President who faced a very weak opponent. I'd say that was the major influence on the two maps.

How influential was race? Neither party campaigned on race in 1956. Neither party had a leadership set up to take advantage of it as a wedge issue that year. Stevenson was a liberal anyway and the issue was deadly dangerous to a Democratic Party which depended on an alliance between Northern liberals and southern conservatives to elect a President. The Dixiecrats had proven that.

On the Republican side Ike had been nominated by the liberal wing of the Republicans in 1952 over the howls and screams of the conservative Republicans. The Republicans would have faced nearly as much internal party conflict over using race as an issue in 1956 as the Democrats would have. So I don't think in 1956 either party was set up to take advantage of the race issue. Because of the rise of the Civil Rights Movement after 1956 that was clearly a different situation in 1964.

By 1964 the Civil Rights movement had become much more influential so that it did matter, but the fact that LBJ faced an extremely weak opponent swamped that.

Parties do not take on electoral issues until those issues both unify the party internally and at the same time provide a contrast with opposing parties on which to build a conflict. Neither party would have been unified by taking up the race issue in 1956. In fact it was internally dangerous to both parties. They each had to restructure internally to permit them to take that issue on. They were still restructuring their leadership with respect to the race issue in 1964. I don't think that the difference between the two maps can be attributed to race. The issue simply had not matured enough to have that much influence  even in 1964.



[ Parent ]
Oh, and THOSE States Just HAPPENED To Be There??? (0.00 / 0)
Congrats!  You're ready for pundit chair!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
I'm an old man. (0.00 / 0)
I'll only take the pundit chair if it's padded comfortably and has a beer sitting next to it. Not pale American mass produced pilsner swill. Guinness Stout has real flavor. Much like the German beer I drank when stationed in Germany.

OK. The Southern states were each controlled by a political machine which could deliver them to the party that owned the machine. They still are. The party that owns those machines will get those states. In 1956 the core Southern states belonged to the Democrats, while in 1964 the race issue was causing the machines to change allegiances. Yep. That was race in 1964. LBJ essentially kicked the South out of the Democratic Party and put those southern machines up for grabs by the Republicans.  

But it wasn't swing voters. It was a core realignment of the two parties. First it required a realignment of the party leadership. If the leadership cannot run on an issue because it fractures the party, they won't do it. So I don't consider that analogous to the current situation - unless I am missing something about current party realignments.

The Republican leadership is so far from having a core issue to run on that they actually tried a web site to ask their constituents to give them ideas. We all know that. That's the mark of a failed political leadership. And the libertarian billionaires (Koch brothers - any others(?)) seem to be trying to take control of the Republican party. What are they really passionate about? No inheritance tax and no government regulation?? Or just an abstract "NO!" At the moment, the "No!" issue seems to be the only issue that unifies any of the Republicans.

I'm not strongly wedded to this analysis, but I like it better than just saying the difference between those two maps was the race issue. I offer it largely for criticism. (I've already learned a lot from this discussion.) If your point is that the Republicans are trying to muddy the waters about which Party the African-American votes should go to, that makes a lot of sense to me and probably will become more important in time. And the Dems need to be ready for that. (Spanish lessons, anyone?)


[ Parent ]
Truman vs. Stevenson (4.00 / 3)
Notice also that in 1964 the Dems, in Johnson, had a Truman style Democrat, whereas in 1956 they ran Stevenson, a Northeastern intellectual who despised populism.  Hmm....  Dukakis, Kerry, even Obama.... problematic pattern for the Dems?  At some point the Democrats have to realize that the majority of American voters haven't been to college.  At some point the Democrats are going to have to learn how to talk to people.  Having lived in the south and spent time in the military (which is all either lower class rednecks or minorities, since they're the only ones who enlist) I cringe everytime a Democrat opens his or her mouth and speaks like they're addressing a graduate school seminar or treating politics like it's a gentlemanly sport of fencing.  Not every Bubba or Bunker is a racist Neanderthal but people who have little else will always, always have pride.  

Ummmmmm (4.00 / 1)
Despite the fact that Adlai Stevenson got his undergrad degree from Princeton, he was born and raised in Illinois, withdrew from Harvard Law School because of poor grades and wound up getting his law degree from Northwestern (in Illinois, not in the Northeast), and eventually became governor of Illinois.  Sure, he was an "intellectual," but I wouldn't call him a "Northeastern intellectual."  You may certainly call him a "Midwestern intellectual," if you want.  ;-)

"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."
Benjamin Franklin


[ Parent ]
Educational stats (4.00 / 1)
The Census Bureau reports that 55.4% of those over 25 years old have at least some college.  All groups from 25 to 64 had a majority having at least some college.  Otoh, less than 35% are college grads in any age group and overall just 10% have graduate degrees.  There are a lot of people with associate's degrees or some college out there. (2010 Statistical Abstract, Table 226, data as of 2008).

Basically, you are right.  Intelligence does not always mean education.  And it certainly does not always mean long words and long speeches.  The Gettysburg Address took five minutes to deliver and has remained in the public's mind for almost 147 years (November 19,1863). Government of the people, by the people and for the people shall not perish from this earth.

Speaking or writing simply, clearly and directly is a difficult skill to master and certainly is not a skill one learns in graduate school.


[ Parent ]
The problem was that Ike was overwhelming (0.00 / 0)
In 1956 the Dems couldn't find a strong candidate ready to end his political career going up against Ike. So they nominated the 1952 loser, a man with no current office and no national base of his own.

It was a bit like the problem the Republicans faced in in 1996, so they gave Dole the nomination. He was ready to retire anyway. But it was also the dearth of qualified candidates, similar to the problem the Republicans faced in 2008 when they settled for the only possible candidate running, McCain, in spite of the fact that the social Republicans detested him.  


[ Parent ]
What happened??? | 25 comments
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