Riffing off my colleague Chris Bowers' titles, I'll be doing updates on DADT repeal as we ramp up this week and next towards a vote on repeal in the U.S. Senate.
Here's where we stand:
First, an overview of the next several days. Today at 1 PM EST2:15 PM the Comprehensive Review Working Group will release its report on repealing DADT. In what has long been considered by many, including myself, to be an obstacle to repeal, the report may actually become a boost to our side, as numerous Senators, including repeal opponent Jim Webb, have said they will take the report very seriously in weighing whether or not to support repeal, and an early leak showed an overwhelming majority (70%) believe allowing servicemembers to join and serve openly will have positive, mixed or no effects. I was just on a press call with Servicemembers Legal Defense Network, whose executive director Aubrey Sarvis said he believes the report will be "one of the best tools that repeal advocates can use in the lame duck session." I'll be reading and summarizing the report here when it comes out.
On Thursday morning, the Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing on the report. Secretary Gates, Admiral Mullen will testify, along with the co-chairs of the Comprehensive Review Working Group, Jeh Johnson and and General Carter Ham. On Friday, the rest of the Joint Chiefs will appear to testify before the same committee. This lineup will include General Amos, the Marine Corps Commandant, who has publicly discouraged DADT repeal (and later been rebuked by Admiral Mullen). Other members of the JCS may also weigh in, in a way that is not helpful. If Thursday's lineup is very pro-repeal, Friday's may be opposite.
There is no date certain yet, but Sen. Reid announced he will bring up the defense authorization bill with DADT repeal attached. Critical is a different amendment process this time, as the procedure last time gave Republicans excuses to block a vote on proceeding. As Sen. Lieberman noted in his pre-Thanksgiving press conference, he believes 60 votes or more exist, but a "fair and open amendment process" is critical.
What that means exactly remains to be seen. On the SLDN call, I asked Aubrey about an amendment to strip repeal. He told me Sen. Reid indicated that Sen. McCain will get his amendment to strip repeal, and told me, "I do not believe that Sen. McCain can get 51 votes to strip the repeal provision." Whether that amendment is sufficient remains to be seen. A well-placed source working on repeal tells me Reid's office, at this point, isn't willing to allow even 10 amendments, purely because of time considerations and because it's viewed that the ultimate cloture motion on the bill may very well fail. According to the source, several Republican Senators are under heavy pressure in their caucus to vote against repeal, and at least push for amendments on the bill. If 10 or more amendments and requisite debate time (30 minutes or more) aren't allowed, then we could very well end up with the same vote count as that taken before the election.
On the SLDN call, I asked Aubrey if he agreed with the source on the importance of at least ten amendments with at least 30 minutes of consideration, or whether he believes allowing the McCain amendment would be "sufficient" to get votes to proceed. Aubrey told me:
I think the Majority Leader has to allow for a number of amendments on each side. I think discussions are underway for what that would look like- is it 10 amendments, is it 20, and is it for 30 minutes each. Most people think that would be fair in the limited time left in this session. But yes, I think there has to be amendments allowed on each side. Five won't cut it. And yes, there's probably even more pressure now coming from the Republican caucus, coming from Sen. McConnell for his caucus to view this as a caucus issue and to maintain discipline to not allow anything to happen in the lame duck. Fortunately, I think there are several Republican Senators who will not go along with that. But yes, it's important.
So, it is critical that Sen. Reid allow for a process that enables pro-repeal votes to be cast.
Various reports are circulating that Sen. Ben Nelson is now a swing vote and/or waiting to see the Pentagon report. I just checked in over the phone with the same senior official in his office who broke the news to me a few months ago that Sen. Nelson would vote aye in committee, and he confirmed Sen. Nelson is a solid pro-repeal vote on this issue- on the motion to proceed, on a potential amendment to strip repeal out of the defense authorization bill, and on every other scenario I presented.
Speaking of the magic 60 vote threshold, here's where we stand. Lieberman named Collins and Lugar as aye votes. Collins voted aye in committee, and it's widely believed Lugar is a potential get. The same day of the Lieberman et al press conference, as I wrote here, Murkowski and Ensign were reported as aye votes, although Murkowski later backpedaled on that, as did Ensign. Sen. Kirk, who replaced pro-repeal Sen. Burris, is also a no, as appears Sen. Pryor, who appears to have been taken over by a right-wing fundie pod person.
On the private side, several people close to the lobbying process tell me Lincoln will be fine, as will Webb, who voted with us before the election to proceed on the bill with repeal language included, although he is currently opposed to repeal itself, but making signals that he will remain open-minded pending the report. On the swing side, Collins (who voted aye in committee but no on proceeding before the election) is very gettable, as is Snowe, Lugar, and Voinovich. Less gettable but possible are also Murkowski, Ensign, Gregg, Kirk, and Bond. I asked Aubrey this morning to confirm this list, which he did. There are conflicting reports from various people on whether Scott Brown is possible. And of course, this may all change after the report comes out, and I will report on new movement.
On that kind of movement, and the Obama Administration's involvement, Sen. Collins has requested a one-on-one meeting with Secretary Gates to discuss the report. Hopefully she'll get it, and the Administration will use Gates and all available other tools to move Senators.
Today is actually the anniversary of President Clinton signing this into law.
What you can do: (1) Pass on Lady Gaga's message with a personal ask to call Senators (2) Call Senators who are listed as swing votes above, and urge family/friends/colleagues who are constituents to do so. This really is the most critical time period. The main Capitol Hill switchboard is 202-224-3121. Please call and urge others to do so.
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