There will be a new set of ARG early state polls released as early as tomorrow, and I will provide a more complete update of the charts, including numbers in South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan and Florida, when those ARG numbers are released. Before then, with Iowa finally setting a date, accurate cash on hand figures available, and a range of new polls, I wanted to get a new chart out there at least before tomorrow’s debate. I have also now included all thirteen “serious” candidates in the charts, and will do so for the remainder of the primaries. And no, Duncan Hunter, Mike Gravel, and Tom Tancredo don’t count (although I wish Tancredo did, considering how his hateful messages help send droves of new voters into the Democratic camp. UPDATE: Tancredo has now announced his retirement from the House to focus on his Presidential campaign. I'll add him in the mid-week update).
All State Polls Taken October 1st through October 29th Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Kucinich
Dodd
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$32.2M
$30.5M
$23.4M*
$5.1M
$0.8M
$0.3M
$2.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
4
29.8%
23.3%
21.3%
7.8%
5.0%
1.3%
1.3%
New Hampshire
Jan 08 (?)
3
41.3%
21.7%
13.3%
7.0%
2.3%
4.3%
2.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
46.9%
20.2%
12.0%
2.9%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
* = Includes public funds. Significant spending limits apply to Edwards’s remaining cash
Clinton’s lead continues to grow, although outside of national polls it is certainly not so massive as the national narrative might indicate. This reifies my belief that, eventually, the “Clinton is inevitable” narrative will come back to hurt her campaign. The campaign knows the potential danger of this narrative, too, and they are fighting against it. Once you are expected to be crushing everyone else, there is very little that you can do to beat expectations. Still, for anyone to have any chance of winning the nomination except for her, those candidates must defeat her in Iowa. Anyone Clinton finishes ahead of in Iowa is finished.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain
Hukabee
Paul
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$9.2M
$11.4M
$6.4M
-$0.1M
$0.6M
$5.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
5
28.2%
13.2%
14.2%
6.8%
13.6%
3.2%
New Hampshire
Jan 08 (?)
4
28.8%
20.5%
7.3%
16.3%
8.0%
4.3%
South Carolina
Jan 19
1
16.0%
16.0%
21.0%
16.0%
11.0%
3.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
11.5%
29.1%
15.6%
12.4%
6.1%
1.8%
What a free-for-all. Giuliani is rising nationally, and staying competitive in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, but has fallen to fourth in Iowa. Thompson is falling nationally and has dropped to fifth in New Hampshire (with Ron Paul breathing down his neck), but has moved into second in Iowa and still leads in South Carolina. McCain’s national and Iowa collapse continue full speed ahead, but he is making a comeback in New Hampshire and is still in the game in South Carolina. Huckabee continues to rise across the board, despite a near total lack of funds. And hey, Ron Paul is starting to actually register in these early state polls. In fact, he is even threatening to start campaigning in New Hampshire.
Romney stays ahead of the pack because of his Iowa and New Hampshire strength. However, should he falter either of those two early states, get ready for a real mess. I wish the Demorcatic horserace was half this exciting.
Early state polls can be found here and here. Net available cash means cash on hand for the primaries minus debts owed by the campaigns (info here and here). The primary calendar is still not fixed for Democrats in South Carolina, or for both parties in New Hampshire. Nomination at a glance archives can be found here.
