Last week, our friends at Freedom to Marry published their "top 10 moments" for marriage in 2010. It's a healthy list. All told, there were some strides forward.
I've been thinking, too, about strides backwards. I would count losing control of the Minnesota legislature to anti-equality Republicans while electing (narrowly) Mark Dayton as governor. We had a real shot at making Minnesota one of the next states to move on this issue.
The one that comes up the most, and the one I want to write about, is the New York State Senate. I had worked on the fight to pass a marriage bill through the State Senate in December 2009, a fight we lost for a variety of reasons. I'd count losing Democratic, pro-equality control of the New York State Senate this year as a step backward. But as I engage in conversations with colleagues in our movement, as well as friends loosely observing the process, I've noticed a resignation that marriage is off the table for the next two years.
Boy, has that death been exaggerated.
Some simple reasons why:
Despite losing three Democratic incumbents who voted for the marriage bill, we actually knocked off several incumbents who voted against it through a combination of winning primaries, open seats and close general elections. All told, five new pro-equality members (all Democrats), who either have voted for the bill while in the Assembly or stated they will support it during the campaign, will enter the chamber. Which means a net pick up of two, bringing the number of publicly pro-equality members from 24 to 26 (it takes 32 to pass a bill). We'll need to hold a few of them to their words, but it was a small, positive step forward.
Winning 6 more is a tough slog, but it ain't unheard of. It's no secret there are a few Republicans and at least on Democrat who privately pledged to support the bill if it got the requisite number to pass, some of whom are still in the chamber. And as time has shown, some people just come around naturally on their own. The campaign to persuade these members to come out publicly begins now, but we're not talking about changing the minds of six people- we're talking about changing the minds of a few, and instilling some courage in others. Again, that ain't easy in politics, but it isn't impossible.
It also helps that our community, through the work of community activists, HRC, Fight Back NY and Empire State Pride Agenda, targeted several folks who voted against the marriage bill for defeat and made headlines. Our efforts definitely weren't the turning point in a race like Monserrate's (best known for slashing his girlfriend's face), who was already on his way out, but in a place like my home turf of Buffalo, where Tim Kennedy was elected in a tough race over Assemblyman Jack Quinn III, the money and mobilization made a difference.
I don't buy the "Republicans now control the chamber, all is lost" argument. After the 2006 election, Governor-elect Eliot Spitzer faced a Republican State Senate with 34 Republican-held seats and 28 Democratic-held seats (32 are needed for majority control). In January, just around the time he took office, he got Republican State Senator Michael Balboni from Nassau County to take a position as Deputy Secretary for Public Safety in his administration, then campaigned hard for the Democrat running to replace him, Nassau County legislator Craig Johnson. Johnson won. Now there were 29 Democratic-held seats. Later that year, Republican State Senator Jim Wright from the North County region of the state decided to resign to become a lobbyist. A special election was held in February 2008, which Democratic Assemblyman Darrel Aubertine won. 30 Democratic seats, and the Republicans started to sweat over their majority. Sure, Aubertine ended up voting against the marriage bill (and lost his seat last month), but the point is that Democrats came very close to obtaining a majority and therefore control over the agenda.
Another case in point: last year, the infamous "coup", in which four Democrats decided to switch parties in exchange for more power under Republican leadership- and ended up shutting down the chamber as the battle raged in court for over a month- nearly handed over control of a 32-30 Democratic State Senate to the Republicans.
Republican State Senator Thomas Morahan from Rockland County died of leukemia on July 12, 2010, during a chamber that was closely divided, 32-30. Had he been a Democrat and a quick special election occurred that ended up with a Republican being elected, it might have thrown control of the chamber back into question.
The point is that nothing is said and done in a state where State Senators get appointed to state offices and have their seats taken by pro-equality Democrats; others resign or die in office; power-hungry Senators engineer a coup; and other wily moments. So I'm not with all the naysayers who believe the issue is off the table- not only will some State Senators move our way simply because of time and pressure, but control may actually flip. And though I'm skeptical, incoming Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos did promise a vote on this issue. I'm not painting a rosy picture here- it remains an uphill battle, but in Albany, as the motto of the New York State Lotto goes, hey, you never know.
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