Filibuster reform landmine

by: Daniel De Groot

Fri Dec 31, 2010 at 09:00


There are two major benefits that would come from the Merkley-Udall Senate Rule reform proposal:

  1. Filibuster reform.  Biggest thing here is to shift the onus to maintain a filibuster onto the 41+ minority and away from the model of requiring 60 affirmative cloture votes to limit debate.  But also very significant here would be making the motion to proceed non-debatable and ending secret holds.  Much has been written about this, I think these are positive improvements and while I would rather just see the Senate move to actual overt majority rule, this is a significant improvement and would have led to a much better 2008-2010 for progressives.

  2. Majority changing the rules at all.  Like FDL, I think it would be very important for the Senate to pass changes to the Senate rules on a straight majority on the first day of the new Congress.  It remains one of the most baffling self-delusions that the Senate and most Americans accept the fiction that it takes 60 votes to end a filibuster or 67 to change the rules.  I have tried to make the point that the 2005 "nuclear option" fiasco proves that the majority can in fact rule the Senate if they so choose, but it is a tough slog.  Changing the rules on a straight majority would be a big step forward in forcing everyone to dispel this cherished fable of the "cooling saucer."
Daniel De Groot :: Filibuster reform landmine
So it is with significant trepidation that I read this item on Harry Reid negotiating potential rule changes with the Republicans.  The likely result of any such negotiation would be a symbolic but insufficiently substantial rule tweak that allows the Republicans to continue the substantive work of grinding government to a halt at whim, while allowing Reid and other Senate rule fablists traditionalists to maintain the polite fiction of the Senate as a "continuing body" and pass such meaningless rule changes on a 67 vote supermajority.

What other point can there be to such negotiations?  Republicans clearly can have no interest in limiting the filibuster as presently construed, and the only rule changes they will agree to in sufficient numbers to reach 67 would be ones that don't do anything.  Hopefully I'm wrong and this is just some necessary step Reid had to take in order to placate other conservadems who like the comfortable myth of the supermajority Senate, and Reid can keep them on board with a majority imposed rule change by saying he tried to get Republicans on board, but the possibility of some kind of Gang-of-14 gentleman's agreement is a real land mine to rule reform.

One hopeful sign against this is that benefit #2 above is actually high on Udall's mind as a reason to do this:


Sen. Tom Udall, who's been at the center of the efforts to convince the Senate to begin updating its rulebook with each new Congress, has argued that this knowledge will make both the majority and the minority act more responsibly in the future, as they'll labor under the knowledge that misuse of the rules will mean reform of the rules.

So at least he's less likely to be pawned off by some agreement that is sufficiently useless as to attract 67 votes.  Though, the piece on Reid from TPM quotes Udall saying he's not privy to whatever Reid is discussing so they could just bypass him and Merkley.  


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ROBERT's RULES declares that RULES are for Conducting BUSINESS (4.00 / 2)
and that rules are made to protect the minority, but thoserules should never, that is never get in the way of taking care of business. The repuglycons have abused the power of the MINORITY, like everything else they touch, and now the rules need to be changed to reflect the answer to that irresponsibility.

If filibusters would require actual effort, (0.00 / 0)
they will almost never happen.

People being what they are.


Actually (0.00 / 0)
I expect Republicans to be just as obstinate if you "make them talk".

I also expect Senate Democrats to often be put in positions where they will be wringing their hands when given a choice of holding fast against a filibuster or giving in so they can pass something time-sensitive like an extending unemployment benefits.

The path to reform is for enough Senate Democrats to be willing to filibuster military-related bills out of spite until the rules are changed.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


[ Parent ]
But the consequences for them will be greater (4.00 / 2)
let them go on TV, every day for a month, and argue against funding for ground zero first responders, and S-CHIP, and all of the shit they oppose.  They only lose when their issue positions become common knowledge.  

[ Parent ]
I am skeptical (0.00 / 0)
Of an argument that amounts to "Republicans won't do that because it is irrational to do so" (while assuming that Democrats won't let them off the hook).

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

[ Parent ]
Oh, I"m not saying that they WON'T still filibuster (0.00 / 0)
I'm saying that they'll be creating the negative attack ads being used against them when they DO filibuster.  I want them on TV arguing against super-popular policy.  

[ Parent ]
Basically, the argument is that a talk filibuster (0.00 / 0)
is much more of a tool for accountability than a secret hold is.  

[ Parent ]
The problem is that they don't have to argue against funding for (0.00 / 0)
ground zero first responders in a filibuster against funding for ground zero first responders.  They could talk about what every they wanted.  

Educate, Agitate, Organize, Mobilize, Act!


[ Parent ]
the counterfactual (4.00 / 2)
Is the FinReg bill, where Reid for once did file numerous cloture votes and eventually the Republicans did crack (at least Snowe and Collins anyway).

If they had to maintain talking filibusters of popular legislation, I'm not so sure they'd do as well in terms of blocking stuff.  


[ Parent ]
If the threshold remains 60 (0.00 / 0)
Who will be cracking once the new Senate sits?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

[ Parent ]
40 (0.00 / 0)
I also would prefer the Senate just went back to a simple 50+1 majority rule.  But if this proposed change really does make it necessary for 40 Senators to be present at all times to maintain a filibuster but only one in the majority to break it, then the change will be dramatic.  I don't expect Republicans to give up their weekends that easily.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure the change really does that.  I need to read up on it.


[ Parent ]
20 (0.00 / 0)
Damn, it may only take 20.  See Sargent's original post here.  This quote is from Merkley's original memo.

Require a specific number of Senators -- I suggest five for the first 24 hours, 10 for the second 24 hours, and 20 thereafter -- to be on the floor to sustain the filibuster. This would be required even during quorum calls. At any point, a member could call for a count of the senators on the floor who stand in opposition to the regular order, and if the count falls below the required level, the regular order prevails and a majority vote is held.

I don't get why the number only goes up to 20.  It may be that I misunderstand and 60% of members present can't break the filibuster at any time, so if they have 20 Republicans maintaining quorum then 30 Democrats could break the filibuster.  Not great, but better than my fears.


[ Parent ]
Even this (4.00 / 1)
Is still an improvement on the status quo.  Forcing half the minority to be in the chamber is better than the current 1.

Also, if this happens it will almost certainly be because the Democrats went nuclear and changed the rules on a straight majority, which really opens things up to fix the rules properly at the start of each subsequent congress.

Honestly achieving #2 is probably more important than #1, which is why I really fear a deal by the old dogs on both parties to circumvent it.


[ Parent ]
The biggest landmine to reform is Reid himself. (4.00 / 2)
Reid is too pro-Lieberman and too moderate of a leader to allow rules to interfere with the Right-leaning direction he wants to force on all Senate Democrats.  
Watch him.  He's a master of how to use the rules for his own gain, which are much the same of Obama - to keep big business and big donors happy.
As important as the rules are, only a new and stronger Senate Minority Leader implementing any rule can keep the Right in check.

Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.

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