Nothing particularly noticeable to report, except perhaps a pro-Edwards shift in South Carolina at the expense of Obama. While one poll isn’t enough to draw any conclusions, I’m going to guess that the McClurkin incident in South Carolina, which was at its peak when this took place, might be a factor there. But it will require more polls to confirm, and ARG always tends to be a little wacky.
Republicans
Candidate
IA, Oct
IA, Sep
NH, Oct
NH, Sep
SC, Oct
SC, Sep
Romney
27%
22%
30%
24%
29%
26%
Giuliani
16%
21%
23%
20%
23%
23%
McCain
14%
11%
17%
20%
13%
15%
Huckabee
19%
4%
7%
3%
5%
1%
Thompson
8%
16%
5%
8%
10%
10%
Paul
1%
2%
1%
3%
4%
2%
Other
2%
11%
2%
10%
3%
10%
Unsure
13%
13%
15%
12%
13%
13%
Notice the collapse of “other” in the Republican side, along with the rise of Huckabee.
I think Huckabee’s upward swing seems to have come mainly from Gingrich and Brownback supporters. Huckabee is certainly a force to be reckoned with now.
In the overall nomination at a glance tables, I had considered adding poll average for Michigan, Nevada, Florida and Democrats in South Carolina. However, with so few polls from those states, not to mention a primary calendar that remains in flux, in the end I decided against it. Results in those states will be heavily scrambled by Iowa and New Hampshire anyway.
All State Polls Taken October 1st through October 29th Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Kucinich
Dodd
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$32.2M
$30.5M
$23.4M*
$5.1M
$0.8M
$0.3M
$2.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
5
30.2%
23.0%
20.0%
7.6%
5.0%
1.2%
1.4%
New Hampshire
Jan 08 (?)
4
41.0%
21.8%
12.5%
6.5%
2.8%
4.0%
2.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
46.9%
20.2%
12.0%
2.9%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
* = Includes public funds. Significant spending limits apply to Edwards’s remaining cash
Let me be clear about a couple of things, since for some reason simply posting poll numbers means that you are in the back pocket of one campaign or the other these days. First, I think that a lack of competitiveness in the Democratic primary is a bad thing. It draws attention away from our candidates, and prevents a still divided party from having the serious discussion it needs. Instead, our divisions will fester, and progressives will once again probably end up on the short end of any deal in the coalition. Second, I am not anti-Clinton, though she is not my first choice. Let me rephrase: I don’t see why the reasons to be anti-Clinton don’t also apply to other candidates, and in some cases might in fact apply more to other candidates than they apply to her. Third, I am not happy that the potential Obama winning coalition doesn’t seem possible anymore, since that coalition is the one progressives need to create a progressive governing majority. However, it is not the responsibility of the coalition members to put together that coalition, especially in a primary. Maybe in a general election, but not in a primary. That responsibility rests with the candidate and campaign itself, not with the potential coalition members. If Obama does end up failing in this election, it will be his fault and the fault of the campaign, not the fault of the potential coalition members for failing to fall in line. I refuse to just ever “fall in line” during a primary. Doing something like that is a good way to create a dysfunctional movement. If we did that, would there ever be a time when we were allowed to speak our minds?
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Romney
Giuliani
Hukabee
Thompson
McCain
Paul
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$9.2M
$11.4M
$0.6M
$6.4M
-$0.1M
$5.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
6
28.0%
13.7%
14.5%
13.2%
8.0%
2.8%
New Hampshire
Jan 08 (?)
5
29.0%
21.0%
7.8%
6.8%
16.4%
3.6%
South Carolina
Jan 19
2
22.5%
19.5%
8.0%
15.5%
14.5%
3.5%
National
Feb 05
NA
11.7%
29.4%
6.4%
15.9%
12.3%
1.9%
With a newfound advantage in South Carolina, Romney is clearly in first place now, as he is currently set to run the table in the early states. Giuliani is second, because he is in at least second everywhere except Iowa, where he is a close third. After that, however, it gets very tricky to figure out. I have moved Huckabee all the way to third, mainly because the numbers and the trendlines indicate he is clearly be in second place in Iowa now, but also because he is still ahead of Thompson in New Hampshire. Overall, that leads me to believe that Huckabee will finish ahead of Thompson everywhere, if the voting started tomorrow. I have also kept Thompson ahead of McCain, because Thompson is ahead of McCain everywhere except for New Hampshire.
Unless Huckabee, or someone else, can stop Romney in Iowa, it looks very good for Romney. If Huckabee, or someone else, stops Romney in Iowa, it could be a free for all with Giuliani favored due to his February 5th advantage. Romney’s position reminds me of Dean’s: he looks good, but one slip up in the early states and it could be all over. He simply lacks the national strength to compete on February 5th unless he achieves momentum in the early states.
Early state polls can be found here and here. Net available cash means cash on hand for the primaries minus debts owed by the campaigns (info here and here). The primary calendar is still not fixed for Democrats in South Carolina, or for both parties in New Hampshire. Nomination at a glance archives can be found here.
