Politics always seems to be about race. That's what I learned in Connecticut, when voting patterns in the Democratic primary reflected deep racial patterns. So I was worried that immigration would be a short-term killer, since it is clearly the new racist pander from the right and independents and even Democrats are susceptible to identity-based arguments. That said, the progressive operatives I know who make really big decisions for campaigns aren't really worried about this issue, provided Democrats don't move to the right. They think there will be some short-term damage, but long-term this will turn us into California. A good argument on economic security can beat immigration bashing.
I'm pleased to say it looks like they were correct. Though it's too early to tell, this issue doesn't appear to be working for the Republicans as a mechanism to overcome their problems within the general electorate, though it has an intensely loyal and organized Lou Dobbs-esque following. This is very good news. Given Spitzer's clumsy political operation over the last six months, the retreat of New York Democratic officials, and the single-minded focus of the Republicans, it's hard to get a better test case of immigrant bashing. And it just didn't work as well as it needs to for the Republicans to succeed in 2008. Now, there were definitely areas where it has had an effect, and we will lose seats we should pick up otherwise, but though it can blunt Democratic strength a bit, it can't override the collapse of the Republicans.
Long-term, of course, this is poison for the GOP as long as we don't screw it up. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd wrote about the importance of Latinos for the future of the GOP, and it's suggestive that, as the opportunist he is, he left the Republicans earlier this year
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