Things That Don't Work In Primaries

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Nov 08, 2007 at 12:45


I'm kind of irritated by this, but mostly I don't get it. Marty Chavez seems to be trying to ward off a Udall entry into the New Mexico Senate primary by calling him a liberal:

"This will not be a sweet primary. It just won't," Chavez said during a telephone interview. "The contrast in records between me and the Congressman won't situate him well for the general election."

Yes, it is certainly irritating to hear a Democrat criticize another Democrat by calling him or her a liberal. As Swing State Project notes, that sort of Republican talking point isn't helpful to Democrats, to put it mildly.

But mostly, I just don't get it. Most voters in Democratic primaries are self-identified liberals and / or progressives, and surely that will be as true in New Mexico as it is almost all places in America that aren't in the south. So how, exactly, does attacking someone for being liberal help someone in a primary campaign? You might as well run for Governor of Massachusetts by attacking someone for being a Massachusetts liberal. Attacking Udall for being liberal will come off as an attack on liberals in New Mexico in general. Insulting voters you need to win doesn't make any sense to me.

It seems to me that electoral success of DLC-nexus types in primaries is dependent on self-identified liberals internalizing the argument that liberals and progressives are unelectable. You can't win too many Democratic primaries without liberals, and so attacks on liberals can only work in primaries if liberals themselves believe the attacks being sent their way. That certainly isn't going to work in New Mexico, where polls show Udall outperforming Chavez by 38 points against Steven Pearce, and 22 points against Heather Wilson.  It also won't help when Chavez recently claimed that he is pretty much the same as Udall on the issues, stating "if you look issue by issue I doubt you'll find much difference ... You will find that we will vote together almost all the time."

One of the greatest dangers to the DLC-nexus and conservative wings of the Democratic Party is when liberals and progressives start believing they can actually win. It makes me think that the post-election narrative last year was mainly about conservatives becoming worried that such a belief might actually start to sink in. The last thing liberals and progressives need to hear is that Democrats are winning despite running on virtually the same exact platform as Walter Mondale, or that we have been undergoing a twelve-year shift in national demographics that significantly favors Democrats and progressives. After all, once the Democratic electoral problem is solved, the DLC loses all-purpose entirely. There is no need to keep telling a party that keeps winning elections how to win elections, and there is no need to frame every policy proposal you make in terms of electability when the electorate has a built-in slant in your direction. In other words, there is no role for a concern troll wing of the party when the party is winning.

Chris Bowers :: Things That Don't Work In Primaries

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This Is Unfair (4.00 / 1)
Give me the quote in context - none of the blog posts you link to do.  If he was asked "What do you think would make you a better general election candidate than Udall?" would his answer seem so bad?

Also, what is bad about Chavez himself?  If he is good on the issues and is definitely willing to step up and run (unlike Udall or whatshisname in Oregon), why should we be attacking him?  I'm asking that genuinely - maybe he does have serious issues that I don't know about, but I haven't noticed them being addressed in the major blogs that bash him.


He does ... (0.00 / 0)
go over to the NM blogs .. you'll find out what a bad candidate he really is ... why do you think people on the various blogs want Richardson, Dennish or Udall to run?

[ Parent ]
Don't know (0.00 / 0)
The only thing that I've heard people come up with is that he is pro-business and pro-developer. I still haven't fully formed an opinion on him.

I you want health care, work hard. If you want universal health care, vote for liberals.

[ Parent ]
New Poll (4.00 / 1)
is front paged on Daily Kos.  If Chavez thinks electability is a test, then he should step aside for Udall.  In short, Chavez loses to Pearce and Wilson (by 1 and 3 points), while Udall crushes them by 17 and 18.  http://www.dailykos....

And that is with out Udall even announcing .. (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Reasons (4.00 / 1)
From my experience and observations over the years, the main reason progressives actually do lose in general elections is that the conservative-establishment democrats refuse to support them, preferring a republican winning so the establishment can run a challenger in the next election.  Having a progressive actually hold office threatens the democratic establishment more then having a republican hold it.  Progressives, on the other hand, tend to rally for the lesser of two evils. 

Granted ... (4.00 / 1)
... I like Udall better, but did Chavez openly come out and call him a liberal? Or is it implied and we're just connecting dots?

I mean, to be fair, there could be a lot of latitude given if it's the latter, right?


I think (4.00 / 1)
this is a variation on the "electability" non-issue.  By claiming he isn't "the liberal candidate" Chavez is basically saying that he will do better in the general election.  But I think you are wrong to assume that Democrats in NM are the same as elsewhere.  I spent a good number of years there and it just isn't so.

According to the Sec of State, Democrats outnumber Republicans in NM 532,766 to 354,677.  In fact, Democrats are only about 6000 voters away from being half of the state.  But they consistently sent Pete Dominici back to the Senate.  It's helpful to remember that, before Bill Richardson, they twice elected pseudo-libertarian Gary Johnson (Johnson was talked about as a potential Libertarian candidate for President in 2004).  Some of the Ron Paul crowd want to see him be Paul's VP pick (this would be in an alternate universe, I think).  And, of course, while we're on Bill Richardson, he's about Clinton-lite as a person can get (passing "tax cuts for economic growth" and transferring money from the Permanent Fund to meet cash shortfalls).

This is not to say that there are not some strong liberals out there - obviously there are.  But I don't think they are a majority of the Democratic Party in New Mexico (though, to be honest, I can't find any ideological polls of the state).


Just stop it (4.00 / 1)
Democrats should not use personal attacks or "global" name calling against oher Democrats. Period.  Enough of this "too liberal", "too old", phony baloney that gives credence to Republican bull.

If Chavez wants to talk about issues (Iraq, FISA, health care, rebuilding FEMA, water, the environment, education, health care ... be my guest.  If he wants to slam Republicans like Romney and Giuliani, please do.  The rest of the stuff is bad medicine for our party.  Have you no shame, Mr. Chavez?


Early mistakes (0.00 / 0)
Chavez probably has backed off the "so far to the left" rhetoric but seems to claim that he is better than Udall in the general election. I don't think that argument cuts the mustard if you look at polls.

After his mistakes at least Chavez seems to be talking directly to local progressives and even posting on a local blog were he outlines his stances on the war, health care, climate change, and the FISA bill.

I you want health care, work hard. If you want universal health care, vote for liberals.


[ Parent ]
From working in NM in 2004 (0.00 / 0)
Chavez thoroughly pissed off Albuquerque's progressives on lots of issues, especially by being close to developers. How that plays statewide, I have no idea, but there are plenty who don't like or trust Marty.

Can it happen here?

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