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There are a number of interesting data points from the new CBS/NYT poll out of Iowa.
* 66% of Clinton's supporters support her strongly, with 33% having reservations. This contrasts to Obama's 73/22 and Edwards's 71/27.
* Clinton's favorable/unfavorables are 59/20, versus 72/8 for Obama, 73/12 for Edwards, and 57/7 for Richardson.
* Clinton is the second-choice of 14% of caucus goers who are not with one of the top three, versus 30% whose second choice is Edwards and 14% whose second choice is Obama.
There's a lot more information in the poll that's really interesting, and it's being spun as good news for Obama/Edwards and bad news for Clinton. Her support looks weaker, her unfavorables are higher, and her pickup among second choicers in the caucus is lower than the others.
All of this may be true. However, it is also all consistent with a savaging of Clinton in the media. Clinton is a well-liked figure in the Democratic Party, so the fact that her unfavorables are much higher than Obama and Edwards could simply mean that the press has focused aggressively on her failures as a candidate, and that she's been attacked by both Obama and Edwards. Her unfavorables are going up, her supporters are getting nervous, and other candidates' supporters don't want to back her. In other words, the negative attacks are working.
It's also possible that Iowa caucus goers just don't like her as much as they like Edwards and Obama. If there's a residual dislike of Clinton, then this poll is certainly good news for Edwards and Obama. If it's not, and the dislike of Clinton has come from the effectiveness of the attacks by her opponents and the media, then it's something of a different story because it means that Edwards and Obama are vulnerable as well to negative attacks. They are pristine, but they won't necessarily stay that way once they face the kinds of criticism Clinton is getting. Of course, they may not get these kinds of attacks since Iowans don't like negativity and they are not as exposed right now in the media cycle. Mike Lux can speak to that.
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