The Ideology to Bipartisanship Ratio And Issue Identifiers

by: Paul Rosenberg

Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 18:23


Early this week, Chris wrote a diary, "The Ideology to Bipartisanship Ratio" in which he wrote:

Back on the day Open Left launched, I produced a piece called The Self-Identified Progressive candidate, which looked at how often Democratic candidate websites used the term "progressive." My basic theory was that "if you can't say it, you can't do it." In other words, unless a candidate was willing to as measly self-identify as a progressive, the most popular ideological term in America, it was unlikely s/he would be willing to stand with progressives in more politically important situations once s/he becomes President.

Here is an update on that post, but with a twist. In addition to the number of times each candidate self-identifies as a progressive on his or her website, here are the number of times the word "bipartisan," is used...

Chris went on to compare how frequently Republican candidates used "conservative" vs. "bipartisan" and not surprisingly they were far more eager to be ideological.

I followed up Chris's diary with one of my own, which combined those searches with "Social Security," to see how much this imbalance carried over, both by individual candidates and overall between the two parties.  The result was "Social Security And The Ideology to Bipartisanship Ratio".  I decided to expand this survey, and cross-check with a number of different terms: Iraq, "terror" and "terrorism," immigration, "health care," "global warming," "climate change," abortion "gay(s)" and/or "lesbian(s)," and poverty.  The results of my study are presented in table form, with brief commentary, on the flip.

Paul Rosenberg :: The Ideology to Bipartisanship Ratio And Issue Identifiers
Analysis of Ideological/Bipartisan Ratios

Warning Note: For whatever reason, Google doesn't work as it should.  There are pages not picked up in the search for these labels that are picked up when we add some of the search terms below.  For that reason, it is not possible to do direct comparisons on an line-by-line basis.  In fact, the entire analysis is shakey, given that the search function obviously doesn't function as it should.  However, it seems highly plausible that whatever the problem is, the searches used below are comparable, since they are all structurally similar.  At least it seemed plausible enough to me to run this analysis.

All

With the above warning note in mind, the following table should be seen as a rough benchmark, rather than as a gospel overview.  It's worth noting that the ratios from this table do not fall in the middle range of the issues surveyed, which could have any number of reasons, and is probably due to several of them in combination.

We see quite clearly that four GOP candidates are extremely ideological in their use of "conservative" vs. "bipartisan," with ratios of 100 or more.  The mid range of double digits finds three Democrats-Kucinich, Richardson and Edwards-and two Republicans-Paul and McCain.  Tancredo is the only Republican under 10, while four insider Democrats are all under 5.  In the analysis below we will see these four very consistently in these positions, sometimes joined by Richardson, who is, as a matter of biographical fact, very much a party insider.  However, he has also been a governor, and of course is also Latino.  His outspoken stance on withdrawing from Iraq is a reflection of a greater degree of independent thinking on his part, even though he is in many respects an insider.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios - All
CandidatesIdeological label"Bipartisan"Ratio
MittRomney.com:252010252.00
MikeHuckabee.com:10605212.00
Fred08.com:7497107.00
JoinRudy2008.com:7207102.86
Rep Totals:55846585.91
Dennis4President.com:6171541.13
Ronpaul2008.com:51225.50
RichardsonforPresident.com:17108520.12
JohnMcCain.com:4673214.59
JohnEdwards.com:439030214.54
Teamtancredo.org:1728.50
Dem Totals:1344223615.69
BarackObama.com:636012804.97
HillaryClinton.com:305913.35
ChrisDodd.com:39221.77
JoeBiden.com:215660.04
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----15.09

Social Security

On Social Security, John Edwards is roughly equal to the four most ideological Republican candidates.  Dennis Kucinich is about half as ideological.  This is much tighter than the over-all numbers, and is reflected in the ratio of Rep to Dem totals: 3.39 compared to 15.09.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Social Security"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
Teamtancredo.org:30--
Fred08.com:3201129.09
MikeHuckabee.com:57228.50
Ronpaul2008.com:49224.50
JohnEdwards.com:3211521.40
MittRomney.com:19119.00
Rep Totals4812817.18
Dennis4President.com:21210.50
Dem Totals7451465.10
BarackObama.com:345784.42
ChrisDodd.com:313.00
JohnMcCain.com:28102.80
JoinRudy2008.com:522.50
RichardsonforPresident.com:22121.83
HillaryClinton.com:28201.40
JoeBiden.com:5180.28
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----3.37

Iraq

On Iraq, more than half the Republican field is extremely ideological, although Tancredo and Paul don't talk about it that much.  It's worth noting that Paul is being pitched as an anti-war savior to disillusioned anti-war progressives, but on his website is totally ideological, and not one bit bipartisan.

Next, there is a middle range, roughly from Thompson at 24.72 to Richardson at 9.20, with three Republicans and three Democrats.  And there is a lower range of Washington insider types, from Obama at 5.09 to Biden at 0.08, which is entirely Democratic.  It is significantly more ideological than Social Security, with an overall ratio of Rep to Dem totals of 5.34.  But that's nothing compared to the Republican's preferred framing in terms of terrorism/terror, as seen just below.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Iraq"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
Ronpaul2008.com:150--
Teamtancredo.org:40--
MittRomney.com:3031303.00
MikeHuckabee.com:172357.33
Rep Totals11964725.45
Fred08.com:4451824.72
Dennis4President.com:2191119.91
JohnEdwards.com:369026014.19
JoinRudy2008.com:63512.60
JohnMcCain.com:194209.70
RichardsonforPresident.com:681749.20
BarackObama.com:631012405.09
Dem Totals1131523734.77
ChrisDodd.com:69312.23
HillaryClinton.com:2971442.06
JoeBiden.com:496130.08
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----5.34

Terror/Terrorism

Testing the words "terror and terrorism" produces a significantly different picture.  Paul has virtually no data, but is entirely ideological.  Romney is almost twice as ideological as the next Republican, Thompson, followed closely by Huckabee.  In turn, Edwards and Guiliani are about half as ideological as Thompson and Huckabee.  Then there's a sharp fall-off to Kucinich, McCain and Tancredo, and the basement of 5 insider Democrats-with Richardson dropping his maverick status.  The overall result is that the overall ratio of Rep to Dem totals is almost twice as high as for Iraq-10.19 compared to 5.34.  This is a clear indication of the ideological function of the "war on terror" frame, and it doesn't seem like an accident that Edwards-who has explicitly challenged that frame-is far and away the most ideological Democrat, leading even Kucinich by almost 4-1, and the next nearest-Obama-by more than 10-1.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Terrorism/Terror"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
Ronpaul2008.com:20--
MittRomney.com:248382.67
Fred08.com:4401044.00
MikeHuckabee.com:157439.25
Rep Totals10073627.97
JohnEdwards.com:4902024.50
JoinRudy2008.com:83516.60
Dennis4President.com:4166.83
JohnMcCain.com:73135.62
Teamtancredo.org:414.00
Dem Totals13424892.74
BarackObama.com:7243382.14
RichardsonforPresident.com:43231.87
ChrisDodd.com:12101.20
HillaryClinton.com:19230.83
JoeBiden.com:13690.19
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----10.19

Immigration

Immigration provides even more of an ideological edge for conservatives than terror/terrorism, due primarily to two candidates, Romney and Huckabee, both of whom score over 100.  Thompson, Paul, Kucinich and Edwards form a middle tier, with the later three virtually tied.  Tancredo and Guiliani head up the remaineder at below 10.  Biden, as usual, is highly allergic to using the word "progressive."
The overall ratio of Rep to Dem totals--16.92-is over 50% higher than the ratio for terror/terrorism.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Immigration"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
MittRomney.com:250013192.31
MikeHuckabee.com:2262113.00
Rep Totals33555363.30
Fred08.com:4471237.25
Ronpaul2008.com:50225.00
Dennis4President.com:22122.00
JohnEdwards.com:5012520.04
Teamtancredo.org:1929.50
JoinRudy2008.com:4759.40
ChrisDodd.com:818.00
RichardsonforPresident.com:443597.51
BarackObama.com:619012504.95
JohnMcCain.com:66173.88
Dem Totals750220053.74
HillaryClinton.com:2551212.11
JoeBiden.com:835480.15
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----16.92

Health Care

Interestingly, health care is almost as ideologically favorable for conservatives as immigration--14.69 compared to 16.92-and this is largely the doing of one candidate: Romney, whose calling card, ironically, is the Massachussettes plan, which was, of necessity, a bipartisan creation.  Let it never be said that Republican campaigns have anything to do with reality.  Coming down from the stratoshpere, there's a slightly bifrucated middle tier of Kucinich and Huckabee, followed by Guiliani and Edwards. Ron Paul at 9 heads the remainder, with all the remaining Democrats below 5.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Health Care"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
Teamtancredo.org:50--
MittRomney.com:249012207.50
Rep Totals29014367.47
Dennis4President.com:169628.17
MikeHuckabee.com:177725.29
JoinRudy2008.com:72418.00
JohnEdwards.com:381026014.65
Ronpaul2008.com:1829.00
Fred08.com:99128.25
JohnMcCain.com:4066.67
BarackObama.com:619012404.99
Dem Totals1063823174.59
RichardsonforPresident.com:167592.83
HillaryClinton.com:2351371.72
ChrisDodd.com:20121.67
JoeBiden.com:476030.08
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----14.69

Global Warming

The only issue surveyed on which Democrats are more ideological in their identifications than Republicans was global warming: The overall ratio of Rep to Dem totals was 0.58.  But, as we'll see in a moment, this is merely a result of the fact that Republicans, follwoing Frank Luntz, largely don't use the term.  Things change considerably when we use the term "climate change."  There were just 35 GOP mentions of "global warming" compared to 5912 by Democrats, a ratio of 1: 168.9.  Six GOP candidates used "global warming" a combined total of 19 times together with "conservative" and not once with "bipartisan."  The only GOP candidate to use "global warming" and "bipartisan" together was McCain. Richardson was far and away the most ideological of the Democrats at 56.93, followed by Edwards at 15.22.  At 8.5, Kucinich heads the remainder.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Global Warming"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
MikeHuckabee.com:120--
MittRomney.com:30--
Fred08.com:20--
Teamtancredo.org:10--
Ronpaul2008.com:10--
JoinRudy2008.com:00--
RichardsonforPresident.com:8541556.93
JohnEdwards.com:382025115.22
Dem Totals538852410.28
Dennis4President.com:3448.50
Rep Totals3056.00
BarackObama.com:443875.09
ChrisDodd.com:1042.50
JohnMcCain.com:1152.20
HillaryClinton.com:2241401.60
JoeBiden.com:3230.13
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----0.58

Climate Change

Things shift dramatically with the term "climate change," which the Republicans use roughly four times as often as Democrats, 5156 to 1247.  Kucinich uses the term rarely, but never together with "bipartisan."  After him, there are four Republicans over 100: Romney, McCain, Huckabee and Guiliani.  Paul and Edwards are both in the 20s, followed by Thompson and Tancredo at 9/10, and the five Democratic insiders all well below 5.  Indeed, almost single-handedly, Biden pulls the Democratic total below 1.00.  Collectively, Democrats use "bipartisan" more often then "progressive" when talking about "climate change." The overall ratio of Rep to Dem totals was a whopping 210.04.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Climate Change"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
Dennis4President.com:90--
MittRomney.com:251010251.00
JohnMcCain.com:4692234.50
MikeHuckabee.com:11105222.00
Rep Totals512135146.31
JoinRudy2008.com:8897127.00
Ronpaul2008.com:53226.50
JohnEdwards.com:2041020.40
Fred08.com:72710.29
Teamtancredo.org:1829.00
BarackObama.com:192613.15
RichardsonforPresident.com:34122.83
ChrisDodd.com:732.33
Dem Totals5127350.70
HillaryClinton.com:15260.58
JoeBiden.com:516230.08
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----210.04

"Global Warming" AND "Climate Change" Combined

Combing the figures from the two previous tables, we get the following table for "global warming" and/or "climate change," showing a still huge overall ratio of Rep to Dem totals: 27.48.  We have Romney and Huckabee over 200, Guiliani over 100 and McCain over 50.  The first two are so extreme that Guiliani actually drags the GOP total down slightly. Richardson is the most ideological Democrat at just under 33, relatively close to Paul at 27.  Edwards, Kucinich, Thompson and Tancredo form a lower middle tier from 15.42 to 9.5, and the remaining four Democratic insiders are all under 5, lead by Obama, as usual.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Global Warming" And/Or "Climate Change"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
MittRomney.com:251310251.30
MikeHuckabee.com:11225224.40
Rep Totals515140128.78
JoinRudy2008.com:8897127.00
JohnMcCain.com:480768.57
RichardsonforPresident.com:8882732.89
Ronpaul2008.com:54227.00
JohnEdwards.com:402426115.42
Dennis4President.com:43410.75
Fred08.com:74710.57
Teamtancredo.org:1929.50
Dem Totals590012594.69
BarackObama.com:6351484.29
ChrisDodd.com:1772.43
HillaryClinton.com:2391661.44
JoeBiden.com:546460.08
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----27.48

Abortion

We now turn to two taditional red meat "social issues" for conservatives-abortion and gays-only to find that the GOP's ideological edge is considerably dulled.  Except for the anomaly of "global warming," which the GOP shuns using, every issue we've looked at since Iraq has a better than 10-1 GOP to Dem ration in the use of ideological language.  But suddenly, we're back down below 10.  The ratio for abortion is a still substantial 6.86-more than the 5.34 for Iraq, but less than the 10.19 for terror/terrorism, the 16.92 for immigration, the 14.69 for health care, or the 27.48 for global warming/climate change.  Of course, this is only one measure, but it's still surprising to find that such a long-standing hot-button issue for the GOP is far from the most ideologically polarized in their favor.

Kucinich is far and away the most ideological Democrats, with 30 ideological mentions and no bipartisan ones.  Biden shows a rare aversion to the bipartisan label, but that looks to be partly because he doesn't have much to say at all.  On the GOP side, Tancredo and Paul are almost as reticent, and just as ideological.  The substantial mentions start with Romney and Huckabee.  Ordinarily, Huckabee's 95 would be staggering, but it's less than 1/3 of Romney's 298.  Could it be that he's got some 'splainin' to do?  And would rather pre-empt that whole scene?  On the other hand, Guiliani has even more to explain, but he's the least ideological of Republicans, at under 10, less than half of Thompson who tops the GOP's lower tier, which is the overall middle tier, with Edwards slightly behind him.  As per usual, four Democratic insiders fill in the bottom.  What's not so usual is that Biden isn't among them.  What's perhaps surprising (though not to some) is that Clinton is both so quite, and that she's the least ideological of all.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Abortion"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
Dennis4President.com:300--
Teamtancredo.org:40--
Ronpaul2008.com:40--
JoeBiden.com:10--
MittRomney.com:2981298.00
MikeHuckabee.com:190295.00
Rep Totals6281252.33
Fred08.com:82420.50
JohnEdwards.com:169918.78
JohnMcCain.com:22211.00
JoinRudy2008.com:2839.33
Dem Totals488647.63
BarackObama.com:270456.00
RichardsonforPresident.com:1334.33
ChrisDodd.com:111.00
HillaryClinton.com:460.67
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----6.86

Gays and Lesbians

The overall ratio of Rep to Dem totals falls even further for gay(s) and/or lesbian(s)--3.19, compared to 6.86 for abortion. This is nearly identical to the level for Social Security, which was 3.37.  We start with four GOP candidates who have nothing bipartisan to say, but only two-Huckabee and Romney, are vociferously ideological.  Paul and Tancredo are mostly just mum all around.  Kucinich is the most ideological Democrat, and at 35.00 is close to the GOP total of 28.67.  At less than half that, 17.00, Thompson leads a tier of 4 candidates-Democrats Richardson and Edwards, and fellow Republican John McCain, who are at 10 or more.  Obama once again leads the pack of four Democratic insiders, at the just over 8, but Guiliani has snuck into their midst.  Cross-dressing dies hard.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Gay(s)" And/Or "Lesbian(s)"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
MikeHuckabee.com:720--
MittRomney.com:410--
Teamtancredo.org:20--
Ronpaul2008.com:00--
Dennis4President.com:35135.00
Rep Totals172628.67
Fred08.com:34217.00
RichardsonforPresident.com:59511.80
JohnEdwards.com:5735011.46
JohnMcCain.com:10110.00
Dem Totals14481618.99
BarackObama.com:585738.01
HillaryClinton.com:189286.75
JoinRudy2008.com:1334.33
ChrisDodd.com:313.00
JoeBiden.com:431.33
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----3.19

Poverty

Of all the issues I looked at, poverty showed the least GOP advantage in terms of ideological identification--with a 1.98 ratio between Reps and Dems--and the reason is fairly clear: On the one hand, Edwards talked about it a lot, and brought the Democratic ratio up.  (Even though Obama talked about poverty more, he had a typically low 4.96 ratio.) On the other hand, GOP candidates didn't talk about it much at all, and those who were most ideological were among the most silent.  Romney, Tancredo and Paul were all totally ideological, but not very talkative.  Huckabee was just a teensy bit bipartisan, but talked a good deal more-though that wasn't saying much, clocking in at 34, twice the ratio of Kucinich, who was also not that talkative.  Edwards was slightly behind Kucinich, at just over 15, but more than 100 times more talkative, which is why he had such an impact.  Everyone else was under 5, except for the also almost-mute Thompson (6) and Guiliani (5).  Barack was very talkative, as already mentioned, almost twice as talkative as Edwards, but was ranked where he usually is, as the most ideological of the Democratic insiders (including Richardson this time), who were joined by a different GOP interlopper this time-McCain.

Ideology/Bipartisan Ratios
With "Poverty"
CandidatesIdeological labelBipartisanRatio
MikeHuckabee.com:34134.00
MittRomney.com:90--
Teamtancredo.org:30--
Ronpaul2008.com:10--
Dennis4President.com:34217.00
JohnEdwards.com:373024615.16
Rep Totals64512.80
Dem Totals1001115506.46
Fred08.com:616.00
JoinRudy2008.com:515.00
BarackObama.com:620012504.96
JohnMcCain.com:623.00
RichardsonforPresident.com:19121.58
HillaryClinton.com:19181.06
ChrisDodd.com:450.80
JoeBiden.com:5170.29
Rep Totals/Dem Totals:----1.98

Conclusion

Looking at all the above comprehensively, it seems obvious that the traditional hot-buttons of gays and abortion are playing a significantly lesser role in defining GOP ideology versus the Democrats.  Immigration is doing just fine holding down the conservative identity politics slot, it would appear, and doesn't really need any more help.  This might help explain why Guiliani and Romney haven't really had to pay for their unorthodox past positions.  With terrorism priming everything else, immigrants can serve as a powerful magnet drawing all the identity politics ire, and leaving the traditional rightwing targets relatively off the table-at least so far.  The priming function of terrorism has been seen in many past polls that show those more focused on Iraq strongly favoring the Democrats, while those focused on terrorism have leaned GOP, at least until relatively recently.  The figures we've seen in these tables conform to that.  Terrorism is significantly more favorable to the GOP in terms of ideological identification-roughly twice that of Iraq.

What's surprising is that health care is slightly more ideologically charged for Republicans, and that global warming/climate change is dramatically more charged.  Also worth noting is that Social Security is quite the opposite, a reflection of how the Versailles conventional wisdom dominates over both fiscal and political reality.

All Issues-Ideological/Bipartisan Ratios By Party
 All Republican CandidatesAll Democratic Candidates 
IssueIdeo
label
BipartRatioIdeo
label
BipartRatioRep/Dem
Ratio
All55846585.911344223615.6915.09
Social Security 4812817.187451465.103.37
Iraq11964725.451131523734.775.34
Terrorism/Terror10073627.9713424892.7410.19
Immigration33555363.30750220053.7416.92
Health Care29014367.471063823174.5914.69
Global Warming3056.00538852410.280.58
Climate Change512135146.315127350.70210.04
Global Warming & Climate Change515140128.78590012594.6927.48
Abortion6281252.33488647.636.86
Gay(s) & Lesbian(s)172628.6714481618.993.19
Poverty64512.801001115506.461.98


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Wow, this is awesome (0.00 / 0)
Great work. This really should be circulated far and wide. An excellent analysis of how the candidates are presenting themselves.

One quick note: the differences we might be seeing in our search totals are because I didn't trust the original number that came up, and went to the end of the search results, where a different number almost always showed up. (In other words, with my number of results preferences set at 100 per page, if there were 340 results in the initial search, I went to page 4 of the search, where it would show a different number.) Also, I never clicked to see the repeating results.

I actually think that terrorism is identity politics, too. It can't be a pure coincidence that 80% of people who say Iraq is their most important issue vote for Dems, while 80% of people who say terrorism is their most important issue vote for Reps. "Terrorism," is an identity term, the way conservatives use it, since it is based on anti-Muslim feeling instead of, say, violence against Planned Parenthood.

Great stuff.



IDoh! (0.00 / 0)
I should have thought about checking the end of the results.  That certainly would inflate some, if not all of the larger values.

I agree about terrorism as identity politics.  I could have phrased it better.  It's just that with immigration it is much more fully expressed, IMHO, and the numbers here are an indication of that. 

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Interesting (0.00 / 0)
This definitely shows the impact of conventional wisdom on Democratic campaigns. However, I'd argue that the strongest correlation amongst Democrats is not insiders vs. outsiders but sitting Senators vs. the rest.

Obviously, Biden is a special case, because the term progressive apparently killed the family of whoever wrote his website, then pissed on their graves. But (whilst I haven't looked through all these results) it certainly seems plausible that all these uses of the term bipartisan pop up when the Senators are discussing their records, whereas Edwards is different because he's almost running in opposition to his record.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


Well, DC *IS* The Inside of The Inside (0.00 / 0)
So I think we're basically saying the same thing.

I think it's noteworthy that Richardson is bimodal--sometimes insiderish, sometimes more ideological than Edwards.  But Edwards is never insiderish.

Given that Edwards was a trial lawyer a good deal longer than he was a Senator, I'd have to say it's more like he's reverting to form.  Which, to my mind, is a good thing.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
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