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There's an interesting race shaping up Ohio 5th, a mostly rural district which voted for Bush in 2004 by a 61 point margin. The region has been devastated by job losses, with outsourcing and trade crushing the local economy. It is at the same time a very socially conservative place, with the largest city Bowling Green having only about 30k people. The region shows signs of progressivism, with Ohio's first utility-sized wind farm. According to wikipedia, "there are four turbines that are 257 feet tall. These turbines generate up to 7.2 megawatts of power--enough to supply electricity for some 3,000 residents. Located about six miles from the city, the turbines can be seen for miles and have become a local attraction."
Democrat Robin Weirauch is running a spirited campaign with lots of help from institutional sources. It is a very uphill battle in OH-05, but these numbers are stunning, if there is any truth to them.
"I've heard that there are internal polls that show a 3-point race," said Ohio Democratic consultant Dale Butland. "It would be shocking. If that district goes Democratic, then there would literally be no district in this state that would be safe for Republicans."
A Republican insider with knowledge of the district said the special election "is easily within a 55-45" percent margin. "I think the DCCC knows that, otherwise there's no way they would have put the money into it."
The only public poll so far in the race showed Latta leading Weirauch 50 percent to 36 percent in early November. Weirauch's showing in that poll was lower than 43 percent she received in her 2006 challenge to the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), who died in September.
Weirauch is running on a fair trade ticket, pairing both a harsh stance against immigration (bad!) with a stance against unfair trade agreements in a heavy union district.
Latta has gotten endorsements from conservative groups: the NRA, National Right to Life, NFIB, Farm Bureau, etc. The Republicans are pouring resources into this one. If this district goes even remotely close to our way, Democrats should expect another wave in 2008. If Weirauch gets blown out by a larger than 61-39 margin, we'll know we're in trouble. Anything in between keeps us in our current muddle.
Robin Weirauch for Congress
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