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For the year-end holiday season, my wife Barbara and I do the same thing every year, which is to head to the Midwest and split time between my family in Lincoln, NE and hers in the far northwestern corner of Missouri. This year, I'm going to head over to Des Moines after the family extravaganzas are finished, and take in the final days in Presidentialpalooza land. Should be a hell of a trip, in more ways than one.
This will likely be the last time I write about Iowa before I land in the war zone, as the Omaha/Lincoln media market covers western Iowa as well, and Barbara's family farm is only five miles from the Iowa border, so I will be seeing a lot of presidential campaign action even before I get to Des Moines. Frankly, I don't think I have a huge amount to add to the commentary and predictions you've been seeing every day from every other pundit and writer around: it's a down to the wire, three-way race. From what I hear from Iowans, and read about the race, my best guess right now is that Obama wins, Edwards is second, and Hillary is third, and that the top three stay pretty close together. But things could change in a heartbeat, there are still a remarkably high number of undecideds, and the caucuses are extremely unpredictable.
On the Republican side, don't be surprised to see Romney win in Iowa. Huckabee's field organization is almost 100% volunteer, and he's starting to take on some water. Romney is perfectly positioned to be this year's comeback kid, and win the nomination.
One other thing I want to add as we wind down to the end: I am very proud of the progressive community for the role they've played in these caucuses. They inspired Edwards' hardcore populist message, Richardson's no residual troops pledge, and Dodd's FISA filibuster. And in general, they have moved the entire debate in the right direction. Congratulations to blogs like Iowa Independent, Political Forecast and Bleeding Heartland, and to groups such as Iowa CCI and the Iowa Citizen Action Network and the Priorities Project for all their amazing work.
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