I would also like to clear up a few misconceptions. First, I am excited to work for the nominee in the general election, although I am more excited to continue to work to push the party to the left. However, I will work for both. The key to my lack of candidate-centric activism in the primary is that I just don’t feel enough of a gap between my top choices to spur me to the point of activism. I am proud of the issue advocacy work we conducted around residual forces here, but the lack of a clear-cut top choice for me makes candidate-centric activism impossible. Importantly, this is due just as much to there being positive things about most of the candidates as it is to there being flaws in all the candidates (both positive and negative qualities are in abundance pretty much across the board). Second, it is true that these tables are only meant to predict who would win if the voting started today. However, I think they are still useful in terms of figuring out where the campaign stands at any given moment. Also, making daily predictions helps make a more accurate final prediction, as it allows for ongoing tweaks in methodology and an improved understanding of the overall trajectory of the campaign. For example, I think conducting daily updates like this helped me slowly improve my predictions in 2006, and eventually make very good ones.
Anyway, on to the numbers, which you can find in the extended entry.
Iowa and New Hampshire polls included in the averages had the majority of their interviews conducted December 12th through December 19th. Polls for all other states included in the averages has the majority of their interviews conducted between December 4th and December 19th. Only the most recent poll from each polling organization is included. Margins of 1% or less are considered draws.
STATE BLOGS
