Clinton has re-established a decent lead in New Hampshire, and has narrowly also edged in front in Iowa (although second-place choices might tell a different story). McCain, via a wave of media endorsements, is making a big impact on the campaign. Not only is he rising in New Hampshire, but his improvement there probably comes from independents and mainly at Obama’s expense. Thus, McCain’s improvement is also helping Clinton.
While McCain’s chances of winning the nomination are still pretty small, the specter of a McCain nomination changes the electability dynamic. McCain, like Edwards, has accepted matching funds. In the general election, McCain, like Edwards, also polls better than the top two contenders on his side. If one of the two third-place longshots slips through, we will be in a situation where the leader in the polls is significantly shorthanded monetarily from mid-February through late August. If McCain and Edwards both slip through, we will be oddly spared of Presidential advertising and fundraising this cycle.
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Kucinich
Dodd
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$32.2M
$30.5M
$10.0M
$5.1M
$0.8M
$0.3M
$2.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
6
28.7%
27.8%
23.8%
6.8%
5.0%
1.0%
1.0%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
4
34.8%
27.5%
16.3%
7.3%
3.0%
2.5%
1.5%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
39.5%
22.0%
11.5%
4.5%
4.0%
3.0%
1.0%
South Carolina
Jan 26
6
33.3%
32.3%
15.8%
1.8%
5.0%
1.4%
1.0%
Florida
Jan 29
4
47.3%
22.5%
14.5%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
1.7%
National
Feb 05
NA
43.6%
24.9%
12.7%
2.7%
3.2%
1.8%
1.0%
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Thompson
Paul
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$0.6M
$9.2M
-$0.1M
$11.4M
$6.4M
$5.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
6
30.5%
24.3%
11.0%
8.5%
9.5%
5.8%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
4
10.3%
31.3%
25.5%
14.0%
3.0%
6.3%
Michigan
Jan 15
3
18.7%
19.7%
13.0%
13.0%
6.0%
5.0%
South Carolina
Jan 19
5
25.0%
18.6%
11.2%
13.6%
14.2%
5.8%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
20.0%
24.5%
7.0%
21.0%
7.0%
4.0%
Florida
Jan 29
4
23.3%
19.0%
11.0%
25.3%
8.8%
3.3%
National
Feb 05
NA
22.8%
16.0%
13.0%
21.6%
10.8%
4.2%
Iowa and New Hampshire polls included in the averages had the majority of their interviews conducted December 13th through December 20th. Polls for all other states included in the averages has the majority of their interviews conducted between December 4th and December 20th. Only the most recent poll from each polling organization is included. Margins of 1% or less are considered draws.
STATE BLOGS
