Geographic Polarization: Myth Vs. Reality

by: Paul Rosenberg

Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 15:36


Myth:

Reality:

Discuss-on the flip.

Paul Rosenberg :: Geographic Polarization: Myth Vs. Reality
The Red State/Blue State Blarney

Nothing epitomizes the Versailles polarization myth better than the code of "Red States/Blue States."  And, of course, we cannot mention the formulation without also mentioning David Broooks's influential article in The Atlantic, "One Nation, Slightly Divisible" [subscription required), and the classic takedown thereof, by Sasha Issenberg, "Boo-Boos in Paradise", which includes these fine paragraphs, indicative of, you know, actual reporting:

In January, I made my own trip to Franklin County, 175 miles southwest of Philadelphia, with a simple goal: I wanted to see where David Brooks comes up with this stuff. One of the first places I passed was Greencastle Coffee Roasters, which has more than 200 kinds of coffee, and a well-stocked South Asian grocery in the back with a product range hard to find in some large coastal cities: 20-pound bags of jasmine rice, cans of Thai fermented mustard greens, a freezer with lemongrass stalks and kaffir-lime leaves. The owner, Charles Rake, told me that there was, until a few years back, a Thai restaurant in Chambersburg, run by a woman who now does catering. "She's the best Thai cook I know on Planet Earth," Rake said. "And I've been to Thailand."

I stopped at Blockbuster, where the dvd of Annie Hall was checked out. I went to the counter to see how Scott, the clerk, thought it compared to Allen's other work. "It's funny," said Scott. "What's the funny one? Yeah, Annie Hall, that's the one where he dates everyone -- it's funny."

"In Montgomery County we have Saks Fifth Avenue, Cartier, Anthropologie, Brooks Brothers. In Franklin County they have Dollar General and Value City, along with a plethora of secondhand stores," Brooks wrote. In fact, while Franklin has 14 stores with the word "dollar" in their name -- plus one Value City -- Montgomery County, Maryland, has 34, including one that's within walking distance of an Anthropologie in Rockville.

It gets worse:

As I made my journey, it became increasingly hard to believe that Brooks ever left his home. "On my journeys to Franklin County, I set a goal: I was going to spend $20 on a restaurant meal. But although I ordered the most expensive thing on the menu -- steak au jus, 'slippery beef pot pie,' or whatever -- I always failed. I began asking people to direct me to the most-expensive places in town. They would send me to Red Lobster or Applebee's," he wrote. "I'd scan the menu and realize that I'd been beaten once again. I went through great vats of chipped beef and 'seafood delight' trying to drop $20. I waded through enough surf-and-turfs and enough creamed corn to last a lifetime. I could not do it."

Taking Brooks's cue, I lunched at the Chambersburg Red Lobster and quickly realized that he could not have waded through much surf-and-turf at all. The "Steak and Lobster" combination with grilled center-cut New York strip is the most expensive thing on the menu. It costs $28.75. "Most of our checks are over $20," said Becka, my waitress. "There are a lot of ways to spend over $20."

The easiest way to spend over $20 on a meal in Franklin County is to visit the Mercersburg Inn, which boasts "turn-of-the-century elegance." I had a $50 prix-fixe dinner, with an entrée of veal medallions, served with a lump-crab and artichoke tower, wild-rice pilaf and a sage-caper-cream sauce. Afterward, I asked the inn's proprietors, Walt and Sandy Filkowski, if they had seen Brooks's article. They laughed. After it was published in the Atlantic, the nearby Mercersburg Academy boarding school invited Brooks as part of its speaker series. He spent the night at the inn. "For breakfast I made a goat-cheese-and-sun-dried-tomato tart," Sandy said. "He said he just wanted scrambled eggs."

And people are still repeating that Brooksian nonsense.

Where Have All The Red States Gone?

But that was before the Bush Administration went so far off the tracks that even their sychophantic press corps couldn't save them.  In other words, before the Spring and Summer of 2005, before Terri Schiavo, Cindy Sheehan and Hurricane Katrina were through with him.

In part of a diary series in November, 2005, Chris wrote "Current Public Opinion Myths, Part Two" in which he said:

Of course, the notion that both parties are to blame for the existing polarizing in America is nonsense. The first, and perhaps most obvious, reason that Democrats and Republicans are not engaging in an equal amount of polarization comes from the fact that polarization and base turnout was the main strategy in the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign, while it most certainly was not the strategy for Democrats in 2004....

He went on to offer documentary support, then turned to another line of argument, drawing on the data chart from Off-Center that I presented in the pervious diary.  He then summarized:

So, Republicans are actively engaging in a base turnout / polarization strategy, and Democrats are not. Republicans activists are pushing their party much further to the right than are Democratic activists, who are actually pushing the party ever so slightly back toward the center (at least as of 2002). What is the result of all this? Republicans have pulled away from Independents entirely. Now, in all fifty states, Democrats are closer to Independents. In most cases, they are closer by wide margins:

He then linked back to another diary he had written on August 17, 2005, two weeks before Katrina, "Democrats Closer To Independents In All Fifty States"

Here is an eye-opening fact about the Survey USA 50-state tracking released today: in every single state, Independent approval of Bush was closer to Democratic approval of Bush than Independent approval of Bush was to Republican approval of Bush. That was the case in every state. Fifty out of fifty. Massachusetts and Utah. California and Alabama. New York and Idaho. In every single state in the country, Independents were more in line with Democrats than they were with Republicans.

In fact, in thirty-three states, the difference between Democratic approval of Bush and Independent approval of Bush was less than half the difference between Republicans and Independents. In twelve states, the difference was three times as great. Nationwide, Democrats were more than 25 points closer to Independents than were Republicans. The enormous gaps are not just in the Kerry states either, as you can see on this map:

(Yellow states = Independents less than two times closer to Democrats; Light blue = Independents more than two times closer to Democrats; Dark blue = Independents more than three times closer to Democrats; Black = Independents more than four times closer to Democrats)

There isn't a single corner of this nation where Democrats are not more in line with Independents than Republicans. That's a fact. That's fifty-state potential. That's a tidal wave.

Indeed, it was a tidal wave, and there every reason to believe that things haven't changed very much, beyond some severe disappointment with the failure of Democratic leadership in opposition.

And that's political geography, folks!  All that hidden purple you see here:

But not here:

just itching to come out.... and turn itself blue.


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They forget about the cities (4.00 / 1)
From The Nation

In today's presidential campaign, America seems all tractor pulls, county fairs, town halls and truck stops. Candidates scramble for photo ops in plaid, stump in wheat fields and scarf down corn dogs. Yet more than 80 percent of Americans live in cities.

I find this aspect of our politics to be even more bizarre than the red state - blue state stuff.

Most of us don't get anywhere near cornfields or hunting or plaid. So why do we vote for people who dress up in plaid costumes and pretend to be good ole rural boys?


Yes, thanks for bringing that up (4.00 / 2)
I live in the urban center of a major American city and I feel all but ignored by mainstream politics - including the Democrats who rely on urban voters. Big City issues are never brought up (drug laws, homelessness, public transit, affordable housing - all are left to the cities to handle themselves). Maybe we're just a little too reliable.


"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

[ Parent ]
Why should they? (4.00 / 3)
Democrats know you have nowhere else to go.  So, they pander their flabby asses off to lobbyists and Republicans.  The Republican base knows how to exact their pound of flesh.  The Democratic base is as wimpy as the Democrats.

[ Parent ]
fucken A well-told! (4.00 / 1)


For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.

[ Parent ]
It ought to be a requirement (4.00 / 2)
to have an urban policy!

The Nation is going to do a series of interviews with mayors of Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Buffalo, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Rochester and Salt Lake City, who "offer their prescriptions for a reinvigorated urban agenda."

But the mainstream Presidential candidates? Fuggedabowdit.

It is actually impossible to have a sane national energy policy without having an urban/suburban policy that deals with housing and mass transit and business tax policy (among other things)... because it's the very *design* of America that guarantees our energy inefficiency (and adds to our epidemic of obesity too) by encouraging sprawl and a car culture.

Our Presidential candidates mostly live in a fantasy world where we wear plaid and go duck huntin' on weekends. I often quote Alexander Cockburn, who said:

After Jimmy Carter's timid efforts to make America adjust to late-twentieth-century realities, Reagan installed fantasy as the motor of national consciousness, and it's still pumping disastrously along.


[ Parent ]
Great post (0.00 / 0)
The maps are really important. Mostly because they show how a tiny shift to blue could put basically every state but Oklahoma into play. Someone should do that map in black, white and gray for those of us with "low color acuity."

I thought the takedown of Brooks was wonderful. Really, that's the biggest reason I can see to support Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.  Maybe when one of them crushes Mike Huckabee people can stop pretending that real Americans are racist, white, Southern Christians. Everyone on this site seems to think Republicans will move to the right in the near-future, but I think they'll throw the "idiot vote" (says Peggy Noonan) and the "Jesus Freak[s]" (says Dan Riehl) overboard.

The information about independents seems neither here nor there, though. I'd like to at least see some information showing they were closer to Democrats than Republicans on Bill Clinton also. Given that they don't have party loyalty, I could at least see them having a general distaste for the majority at any given time. Or maybe they've always been more in line with Democrats because Democrats have a weaker brand, and a lot of people who agree with them on the issues identify as independent. I'm just not sure what that tells us beyond the well-known fact that everybody hates Bush.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.


A tiny shift to blue . . . (0.00 / 0)
This shows the importance of spreading the field, which finally seems to be becoming accepted in the Dem party.  I hear the DCCC will not only protect incumbents but become involved in 30-40 challenges.  We could challenge in another 30 or more if we have the resources.  One downside of redistricting is that it scatters the GOPers but solidifies the Dems, so that there are now many more safe Dem seats than safe GOP, and a few defections, plus Indies coming out to vote can flip many more marginal GOP seats.  This is why they have to resort to voter suppression and distoprtion of their views.

As an aside, I recall reading a paper in college about 1965 (post-Goldwater) that showed that the views of Dem leaders and Dem voters were pretty convergent, but GOP leaders were much more conservative than GOP voters, who were, in fact, almost closer to Dem voters at that time than to GOP leaders.  So this is a long-standing phenomenon.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.


[ Parent ]
Well you Urban Slum Dwellers gotta get back... (0.00 / 0)
...to the end of the line. The real money is in the country where decreasing number of 'farmers' and 'ranchers' cash increasingly huge checks from the Treasury. You might call it 'Disaster Resourcing' .

As long as 15 years ago when I flyfished my way across the Mountain West it was obvious 'folks' were pissed at their largest neighbor.

The U.S. Government run by and for the resource extractors.

Turns out that tourists and recreational use of these areas are better, financially, for the 'folks' what live there.

'Course that's not to important so such as Larry Craig and suchlike. Sirota is right on the money for my money. The West is goin' Dem for at least a generation.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


CAn you imagine the fun and hi-jinks Ol' Brooksy (0.00 / 0)
can git up to now with his good, good pal...

'Bloody Billy' Kristol peckin' away at his keyboard just down the hall.

The mind boggles.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


Even more commanding than these maps... (4.00 / 5)
... are Gastner, Shalizi and Newman's cartograms of the same data (re-shaping the states and counties to reflect the size of their population), like this one:

...wherein the country appears to be a blue nation fighting back a red cancer --  a pretty accurate metaphor for our national struggle against the growth of fascism.

Generalist.


Thanks, Paul (0.00 / 0)
I love the myth vs. reality maps.  Tells a story of a thousand words.

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