DMR (0.00 / 0)

poll expects 60% first time caucus participants.  That would mean a turnout of 200K to 240K voters.  And 45% of the voters in the democratic caucus are not democrats.  Doesn't seem realistic but who the heck knows?

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by: RalphB @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 04:39:57 AM UTC

the converse is ... (0.00 / 0)

Edwards can't win if lots of people show up to vote, and that's not a good sign for any Democrat.  That Obama even leads among union members in this poll is heartening.

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by: Adam B. @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 05:34:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't get it .. (0.00 / 0)

how is it not a good sign for any Democrat?

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 06:22:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What is the record .. (0.00 / 0)

for the caucuses?  And why would all sorts of non-Democrats show up at the Democratic caucus?  Do you have to be a registered Demo to partake in the Dem caucus?

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 06:25:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The record is 15% (0.00 / 0)

in 2004. So 45% I's and R's is, to put it mildly, extraordinary. And yes, you have to be a registered D to participate, but you can change your registration at the door.

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by: ColoDem @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 15:50:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do not count JRE out (0.00 / 0)

As someone mentioned, the poll included newbies who may or may not show up.

Q is why is Obama still on the big attack against personal injury lawyers if he knew this poll was going to favor his candidacy?

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by: Benny @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 04:50:55 AM UTC

Logical conclusion (0.00 / 0)

is that he didn't know. And that the campaigns rely on internal polls, not public ones.

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by: illissius @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 05:09:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting. (4.00 / 1)

Interesting poll indeed.
What is more interesting is that Barack decided to send me a text at 10:30 at night telling me about it.

Yay for new media campaigns.

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by: Brad O'Donnell @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 05:46:15 AM UTC

on egg shells (0.00 / 0)

This is a shock. A happy shock.  Fingers crossed.

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by: aiko @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 06:41:29 AM UTC

well in keeping with the fantasy of the Obam (0.00 / 0)

campaing this is as delusional. But hey, it;'s poll, and polls are all that count and so therefore, i will expect a retraction of whom you endorse soon just to make sure.

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by: bruhrabbit @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 06:53:11 AM UTC

Richardson. (0.00 / 0)

I find it a little disheartening to see Richardson tanking.
I really admire him.

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by: Brad O'Donnell @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 06:53:31 AM UTC

... (0.00 / 0)

Obama is awful. Absolutely awful. I still don't predict him to win, but his continued viability is terrible for us. He brings virtually nothing to the table.

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by: epenthesis @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 08:43:54 AM UTC

Old news is old. (0.00 / 0)

Sounds like every politician, ever.
Way to be, y'know, conscious.

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by: Brad O'Donnell @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 08:56:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The DMR turnout model & some context (0.00 / 0)

DMR: The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican. Only registered Democrats can participate in the caucuses, although rules allow participants to change their party registration on their way in to the caucuses.

I've seen some comments saying the 40% independent turnout and 5% Republican turnout are awful high and they ARE awfully high but they are not unprecedented. Keeping in mind Iowa has same-day party registration change here are a few details that to my non-pollster brain suggest the new DMR turnout model could be accurate.

- the '00 GOP primary in NH had a 53%R, 44%I, 4%D make-up with a lot more appealing Democratic field. McCain got 78% of the Dem x-overs and 62% of the independents in that race.

- At present, Iowa has 39% independent voters to NH's 44% independent. It seems like once you reach a critical mass of people who are familiar with caucus rules it becomes like any other election only with more time involved. It's like going to DMV only instead of getting a new license, you get rid of George W. Bush. You'd wait in line for that, right?

- In the '98 Governor race with Jesse Ventura 15.7% of the total votes cast came from voters using same-day registration. That 5% GOP vote in the DMR poll that has to show up and switch registration isn't out of the realm of possibility if the '08 Dem field is as appealing to the GOP as McCain was to Dems in '00

- The Iowa caucus almost feels like the third event in a trilogy with Xmas and New Year's. All the resolutions people make to be better and do things right don't usually last very long but they can last 3 days, right? Start the year off right by being a good citizen and all that. That kind of  cheery optimism would never last until January 14th but January 3rd? Voting will be like starting a new diet. Everybody will be doing it.

John McCain

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by: joejoejoe @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 10:13:50 AM UTC

Iowa Republicans abandoning their party (4.00 / 2)

The Iowa Republican crossover is going to surprise many I think, with numbers perhaps above 10%, driven by a belief among many Republicans that none of the Republican candidates have a chance of winning a national election against any Democrat.  I also believe that the deep distaste for Hillary Clinton is coming into play here, many Republicans crossing over, changing party affiliation in order to keep the Clintons out of the White House.

Also independents are heavily for Obama, 39% according this poll, and I believe that independent turnout will be huge, mirroring the turnout for Democrats and Republicans at the caucus.  I'd be willing to bet that this is going to be the largest turnout in Iowa caucus history, with high numbers of first-time caucus goers, and that can only be good for Obama.

I certainly don't trust some of the recent polls, like the Mason Dixon poll, there's just too much establishment money trying to swing Iowa either Clinton or Edwards way.  The Democratic political establishment has an agenda, and Obama is too much of a wild-card in their view, that's why they've been pouring dollars into Iowa over the last two weeks in the hopes of derailing the Obama train.  It doesn't look like they succeeded.

For the record, I'm not impartial, and have gone to Iowa to canvass for likely caucus goers for the Barack Obama campaign.

Obama 08

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by: AaronBBrown @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 12:05:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Dem establishment .. (0.00 / 0)

likes Edwards?  Are you kidding?

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 19:06:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They like Clinton (0.00 / 0)

And, as Bowers has argued, most of the scenarios in which Edwards win Iowa are scenarios in which Clinton wins the nomination.

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by: seand @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 21:51:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Edwards win will *hurt* Clinton (0.00 / 0)

Assuming Edwards somehow wins Iowa , money would be pouring into his campaign and this idea that Obama is the most viable anti-Hillary candidate would be fundamentally undermined.  Obama supporters, and all Dems opposed to the status-quo, will be very much inclined to consider Edwards.

Obama and Edwards are both competing for the largest Democratic vote: the anti-Hillary vote.  Whoever wins Iowa will be a serious contender to win the nomination.

As an Edwards supporter, I feel like I've been hit in the gut by that damn DMR poll.  Something is off--way off--but I fear most people will just trust that poll as the truth and those who were leaning towards Edwards will now vote for Obama.  Damn it.

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by: Patrickson @ Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:53:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't take the DMR poll too seriously ... (0.00 / 0)

they are predicting turn out way above the historical norm .. and also saying that half the caucus goers will register as Dems the night of the caucus ... I don't see that happening

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 03:07:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's very deceptive (0.00 / 0)

In New Hampshire, I's can vote in either primary without changing their registration. And it's just show up and vote (not sit around a caucus room all night). In Iowa, you have to actually become a registered D and then sit in your school gymnasium for 3 hours.

I will eat my hat (or anyone's hat) if Independent turnout is anywhere close to 40%, which would more than double the 2004 number when there essentially was no R event.

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by: ColoDem @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 15:54:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haha, thanks for blogging after your NYE celebration (0.00 / 0)

A truly committed blogger!
I commented earlier at Dkos about that 2nd choice remark on the Register website. Is data available?
Seeing that this poll was conducted at an inopportune time, I wouldn't be surprised if it is an outlier - to some degree. But outlier or not, this is a three-way tie that simply cannot be called. Which makes this whole ordeal fantastically exciting!

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 10:47:49 AM UTC

And about Paul... (0.00 / 0)

...if anyone can materialize new caucus-goers, it's that guy! The fanaticism of Paul's followers is the most disturbing trend of this primary. I expect him to end up beating the polls by at least a few points.

Ron Paul third place in the Iowa Caucuses? It might just happen. But I supposed anything that makes Fox News look stupid is a win in my book.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 11:03:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama 08, INEVITABLE!!! (4.00 / 1)

As everyone who knows Iowa politics understands, the Des Moines register poll is the most important, the one that people actually pay attention to, in Iowa and elsewhere.

The establishment has been quietly pushing enormous money and resources into Iowa over the last week and a half in the hopes of changing the verdict of the Iowa people, apparently it's not working.  The establishment desperately needs a Clinton or Edwards win, and are desperately afraid of an Obama win, hence all the under the table money, and cheap dirty political tactics they've been exercising in support of their candidates, the candidates that can be depended upon, the candidates who are vetted and tested the candidates who can be relied upon to put the concerns of the special-interest groups and partisan politics first, those who believe they really control this country.  Well, in just a couple of days the people of Iowa are going to make their choice, and we'll see how miserably the establishment tactics have failed.  We're going to discover what kind of world the people of Iowa want to live in, a world of fear and division, or a world of unity and hope.

I predicted this is going to be the largest caucus turnout in Iowa history, and with the independent and Republican crossover vote, Obama is going to squash the establishment candidates, what were their names again, I've almost forgotten as they begin to fade into the pages of obscure history already.  :-)  Obama will go into New Hampshire and South Carolina with irresistible momentum, and God willing this country will find itself in the hands of its people once again, where it rightly belongs.

I'd like to send out a big thank you to George W. Bush, because without your contribution, without you and those in your administration, who set about dismantling the Republic, America would still be asleep.  Well we're awake now, and we're going to begin speaking loud and clear.  Thank you George, the people need a dose of imperialist dictatorship to make us realize what we had to lose.

Obama 08, America wins! 

Candidate assessments -- Des Moines Register poll

Best able to bring about change.

Obama -- 33%

Clinton -- 26%

Edwards -- 19%

-----------------------

Would have the most success as president in unifying the country.

Obama -- 36%

Clinton -- 23%

Edwards -- 20%

--------------------------

Has the most experience and competence to lead.

Clinton -- 35%

Obama -- 21%

Edwards -- 19%

------------------------------

Matches my own core principles.

Obama -- 28%

Edwards -- 25%

Clinton -- 21%

-----------------------------

Best able to win the presidential election.

Clinton -- 31%

Obama -- 28%

Edwards -- 21%

--------------------------

--------------------------

Likely Democratic caucus goers most important issues.

War Iraq -- 28%

Healthcare -- 22%

Economy -- 20%

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by: AaronBBrown @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 11:43:00 AM UTC

Excuse me but..... (4.00 / 2)

I think you are a trifle confused pal...

This is where you're off the rails:

The establishment has been quietly pushing enormous money and resources into Iowa over the last week and a half in the hopes of changing the verdict of the Iowa people, apparently it's not working.  The establishment desperately needs a Clinton or Edwards win, and are desperately afraid of an Obama win, hence all the under the table money, and cheap dirty political tactics they've been exercising in support of their candidates, the candidates that can be depended upon, the candidates who are vetted and tested the candidates who can be relied upon to put the concerns of the special-interest groups and partisan politics first, those who believe they really control this country.  Well, in just a couple of days the people of Iowa are going to make their choice, and we'll see how miserably the establishment tactics have failed.  We're going to discover what kind of world the people of Iowa want to live in, a world of fear and division, or a world of unity and hope.

First: Obama has far outspent 'the establishment' candidates.

Second: JRE is no establishment candidate by any stretch of anyone's imagination.

Third: I have been all over the Internets and nowhere is there a single report of 'dirty money' except as I will detail below.

The real facts support a very different perspective. Obama is your 'establishment' candidate. He is at least as 'establishment' as Clinton.

Question: Where did a less than one term Senator get the money and political infrastructure to run for President.

Answer:From the Joe Liebercrats who want to forestall a true progressive movement within the party. If Obama wins the GE, pretty much an impossibility, in my opinion, they've got their catspaw in place to demonstrate that progressive politics won't work. Obama's already on his way to alienating the progressive base with his constant attacks on other Dems. He slammed Al Gore today. Yeah, Al Gore and Kerry both. He's a divisive figure in the party at present attacking anyone and everyone. Just like Joe.

He wants to 'fix' Social Security'. He wants to keep attacking Iran 'on the table'. He doesn't much care for unions. All Liebercrat positions and sure losers in the GE.

Obama is the only person talking about 'dirty money' with his pathetic pushback on a 527 buy by JRE supporters. Typical Obama as he doesn't bother to tell you about his 527s.

If Obama gets to the GE and then loses because he can't handle the ReThug attack machine, and he's shown no sign that he can, the CW will be, '...see Americans won't vote for a black man...' thus furthering the divisiveness of race in our country.

The voters will decide but if Obama gets to the White House a lot of heads will explode when his blather about 'hope' and 'change' are exposed for what they are:

Electioneering. LIes.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

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by: ACitizen @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 16:41:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Absolutely fascinating. (4.00 / 2)

This shows, I think, that voters are going by a sort of gestalt of the candidates and not their specific policy proposals.  Obama is seen as the agent of change because if he were to become the face of America it would represent the biggest break with the past, not so much because of his policies.

Secondly, there remains a hunger among many less political people for a real unifier, and people seem to see Obama as this more than Hillary or Edwards.  At the risk of getting into hot water again, while I agree that conflict and clear distinctions are healthy and necessary, I think that for people who are not political junkies and do not thrive on argument there is also a desire to see the rhetoric and vitriol ratcheted down.  Obama is clearly taking jabs at his opponents in contradiction to this theme, but I do think that less political people see him as a transcending figure, like Oprah or Tiger Woods who can maybe help us to a different way of doing politics--NOT mushy and content-free, just more oriented to the real issues and not the Kabuki issues we have been stuck with for so long.  (As set forth in EJ Dionne's "Why Americans Hate Politics.") If Obama were to remain a very viable candidate, I think it might take the wind out of the Bloomberg movement.

On that point, despite how I see Obama as an agent of change (or see how other people would see him in that light), I think the previous commenter is way off base in seeing him as a threat to the establishment.  He is to the extent that the "establishment" is right wing, but not all of it is, especially (but not exclusively) on non-economic issues.  Edwards is clearly the most populist, non-DC and therefore threatening to them, and I do like that about him.  Hillary is the most establishment of all.  But Obama is pretty tied in to what might be viewed as a second or younger tier of establishmentarians. 

Mostly I want the race to go on into April, with more people paying attention and with all of us getting a better look at the candidates. 

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 18:20:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Iowans Who Support of Obama..... (0.00 / 0)

....appear to be better educated and have higher incomes than those who support Hillary Clinton or John Edwards according to this poll.

Sources of support among likely caucus goers

College degree

Obama -- 39%

Clinton -- 20%

Edwards -- 22%

$50,000 to 69,999 yearly income

Obama -- 39%

Clinton -- 22%

Edwards -- 23%

--------------------------------------------------

I wonder how they get journalists, like those on CNN, to keep making statements to the effect that immigration is a huge issue, and will be a huge issue in the coming elections.

When you take a look at this poll, only 3% of Iowans ranked immigration as their top concern.

And I've heard almost no mention of the Iraq war as a campaign issue over the last month, yet it's the number one concern of most Iowans according to this poll at 28%.

I guess what I wonder most is how do those at CNN corporate convince their news anchors to repeat what is quite obviously misinformation.  Don't these journalists want to see a mountain of evidence that supports the assertions that they're reading off the teletype in front of them, or those that so-called experts are quoting?

Here's some good advice for all Americans, don't trust the national media, because they often don't have the evidence to back up their claims.

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by: AaronBBrown @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 14:12:21 PM UTC

Poll predicts 250k turnout (0.00 / 0)

If 4 out of 5 of the 2004 caucus goers participate this year (a reasonable estimate) and 60% of this year's are newcomers, a little algebra produces a turnout of 250k (100k returners, 150k newbies). And assuming all the returners are already Dems, the poll predicts 2/3 of the newcomers to be registered Indies and Reps, over 100k of them.

That's just ridiculous. And oh, by the way, two new polls out today, both (unfortunately from my point of view) with Clinton leading.

The DMR is just a bad sample. Which, if you read the Register article carefully, they all but admit (how many newspapers tell you that their results are different than all other public polls, right there in the front page story?)

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by: ColoDem @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 16:52:59 PM UTC

If this was any other outfit we would all be screaming outlier. (0.00 / 0)

According to Insider Advantage, after reallocation it is:

Edwards 41%
Clinton 34%
Obama 25%

http://politicalwire...

Of course Edwards, Obama and Clinton won't be viable in every precinct either which these numbers don't account for.

I guess though in the end what the DMR poll does tell us we really already knew - if these first-time attendees actually caucus then Obama is gonna win big. For now, I'm going to stick with the averages.

 

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 16:54:02 PM UTC