Open Left Straw Poll and Iowa Prediction Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 21:08


Iowa may be the first state in the nation, but the zero delegates Open Left has been allotted for the 2008 Democratic National Convention will be decided tonight and tomorrow. Go vote in the first and only Open Left Democratic primary straw poll. The poll will stay open until midnight tomorrow. Only votes that rank at least three preferences will be counted. I will remove stuffed votes from the poll, and announce the results on Thursday morning. Go vote.

This is also the prediction thread for the Iowa caucuses. In the comments, guess the order, and final numbers, for at least the top three candidates in both the Democratic and Republican Iowa caucuses. My off-hand guess is Clinton 31%, Edwards 30%, Obama 28%, and no one else above 5%. On the Republican side, I'll go with Romney 31%, Huckabee 28%, and McCain 16%. But really, the muddled polling situation and various intricacies of the caucus makes this virtually impossible to predict.

Vote in the straw poll, make a prediction in the comments, and have some fun.
Chris Bowers :: Open Left Straw Poll and Iowa Prediction Thread

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Open Left Straw Poll and Iowa Prediction Thread | 41 comments
Whaaaat? (4.00 / 1)
Not gonna let me protest vote for Mike Gravel?
You call yourselves progressives, but you're fascists like the rest of them.

Obama 29
Clinton 27
Edwards 24
Due to the closeness of the race, I find high turnout to be likely, which is likely to swing in Obama's favor.

Romney 30
Huckabee 29
RON PAUL 1,000%!
McCain 19 or something.
I think Huck's recent negative press is going to bite him in the ass.

Just kidding about the whole fascists thing.
Kinda.

Because it is so close I would like (0.00 / 0)
one more day to see "the close", crowd size, last commercials, any last minute rhetoric changes because I honestly think it is too close to call;it appeared Edwards had some momemtum and the DMR poll might have had an effect on that momentum.

I just read anaccount of HC appearing somewhat downcast with a small crowd for instance....

Could you run this again tomorrow night - just predictions section?

Predictions (0.00 / 0)
Clinton 33%
Edwards 31%
Obama 25%
Biden 5%
Richardson 4%
Kucinich 1 %
Dodd 1%
Gravel 0%

Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 14%
Thompson 10%
Paul 8%
Giuliani 8%
Keyes 2%
Hunter 1%

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Obama 37+ (4.00 / 1)
Obama 37 (just like Kerry)
Clinton 30 (she hasn't topped 30 in Iowa much all year)
Edwards 28 (or less)
Biden 3

I believe that all the dark side of the moon polling was made up of imaginary surges and declines. We are basically right back to where we started before Christmas--Obama support coalescing and stabilizing.

According to the NYT: the DM Register poll did fall in line with some broad trends that other surveys have indicated for some time:

By big margins, Mr. Obama draws young people (56 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds), those with college degrees (39 percent), those making more than $70,000 (37 percent), and those living in urban areas (37 percent).

In other words, Obama's base hopped a plane, train or car and left the state for the holidays..his base wasn't in Iowa over Christmas and couldn't be polled....thus his number were skewed.

The Storm (0.00 / 0)
I agree that Obama's base packed up and left town. Will they get back into town to caucus? The weather is only getting worse.

I predict a big win for Edwards based on rural support from able bodied people who are actually in town.

[ Parent ]
here's mine (0.00 / 0)
Clinton 39%
Edwards 29%
Obama 21%
Richardson 5%
Biden 4%
Dodd 1%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

Turnout not much better than 04. In other words, I expect to be disappointed.

Huckabee 30%
Romney 22%
Zombie Reagan 20%
Thompson 9%
McCain 8%
Giuliani 5%
Paul 4%
Keyes 1%
Hunter 0%

Straw Poll Prediction (0.00 / 0)
Democratic

Edwards  30
Clinton  25
Obama  19
Biden  10
Kucinich  7
Richardson 6
Dodd  5

Repig

Huckabee  31
Romney  27
McCain  18
JulieAnnie 10
Paul  6
Hunter  5
Thompson  3

My prediction (4.00 / 2)
  Edwards has gained enough traction of late that the establishment candidates (Richardson, Biden) will coalesce around Hillary.

  The Village will pull out all the stops to prevent any positive pro-Edwards narrative to come out of Iowa.

  This is what happened with Dean in 2004. Edwards does have a stronger organization and appears to be a savvier candidate, so we'll see. But I feel there are some real machinations going on right now to stifle the progressive narrative, and that means stifling Edwards.

  The DC Democrats are NOT our friends.

  I hope it doesn't work.

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

tough to know... (0.00 / 0)
but here's my bet:

DEMS

Edwards 32%
Obama 30%
Clinton 26%
Biden 3%

REPUBS
Romney 28%
Huckabee 27%
McCain 18%
Paul 12%
Thompson 7%

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. -- Martin Luther King, Jr

Tough call to make (0.00 / 0)
Edwards 32%
Obama 30%
Clinton 29%
Richardson 9%
Biden 8%
Dodd what's ever left..

...but I think his folks will go to Edwards as a second choice, which is why I gave Edwards a higher number.

Dennis has become the Nader of the group, but I don't think, as Kos does, his supporters will necessarily go to Obama, they will choose Edwards as well.

Those are not how I voted in the poll, however.

According to math (0.00 / 0)
that means Dodd gets negative 8%. Would be a singular accomplishment, to be sure...
[ Parent ]
Ooops (0.00 / 0)
You are right...

I'll with Richardson at 4%, Biden at 3% and Dodd will be at 2%...I think that adds up now.

[ Parent ]
Pure gut (0.00 / 0)
numbers:

Clinton  31
Edwards  29
Obama  28

Absolutely no analytical reasoning behind it.  Like most of these polls.  :-)

Fun! (0.00 / 0)
No predictions but I did vote!

Love those Demo Choice polls.

My dream ticket would be:

Edwards/Edwards 08!

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

Prediction (0.00 / 0)
Democrats
Obama 35
Edwards 29
Clinton 27

Republicans
Huckabee 30
Romney 28
McCain 15

[ Parent ]
Entrance poll vs. actual delegates (0.00 / 0)
Clinton wins entrance poll by 2-4%, but Edwards gets most delegates due to 2nd choices, disproportionate rural representation, etc.  Question is how media reports this result.

Delegate breakdown:
Edwards - 34%
Clinton - 30%
Obama - 23%
Biden - 5%
Richardson - 3%
Dodd - 2%

DMR poll vastly oversampled independents and Republicans, so I don't buy Obama in front at this point.  Actual turnout is ~140,000

Republicans:
Huck - 30%
Romney - 28%
McCain - 15%
Thompson - 12%
Paul - 8%
Giuliani - 7%

Your results for Iowa (0.00 / 0)
Hear it now: Come Jan 3 you will see these results on your TeeVEEE and interweb screens.

Edwards: 27.5
Obama: 27
Clinton: 26.5

Huckster: 30
Romney: 26
McCain: 9.3
Thompson: 9.2
Shag fund: 9.2

I feel confident in the percents for the Dem race, however, I am only confident in finishing position for the GOP

Predictions (0.00 / 0)
Edwards 31%
Clinton 28%
Obama 26%

Biden 8%

Richardson 6%

Clinton, Edwards, Obama (0.00 / 0)
Clinton 34%
Edwards 33%
Obama 32%%
Others 1%

My prediction is based on delegates to the next level, not the entrance polls.  Fired up, ready to go, expectations exceeded!

This is fun (0.00 / 0)
Edwards - 32%
Obama - 30%
Hillary - 28%
  Everything I have learned about the caucus system leads me to believe it benefits Edwards more than anyone else.
I think Biden with beat out Richardson for 4th.

Huckabee - 30%
Romney - 28%
McCain - 15%
Paul - 10%
Have you seen Huckabee speak? I bet everyone in Iowa has. He blows the rest of the field out of the water, imho. And it will result in his narrow victory. Maybe 10% is a bit much for Paul - but never underestimate the power of fanaticism.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

turnout (0.00 / 0)
Clinton.........31.0
Obama.........30.9
Edwards......30.7

Media rightly refuses to call anyone *the* winner.

Richardson....4.2
Biden............3.1
Uncommitted..0.1

Huckabee...30
Romney......27
McCain.......13
Paul...........all your base are belong to Ron
Thompson....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Giuliani......4

Clinton and Huckabee (0.00 / 0)
Clinton 31%
Obama 28%
Edwards 26%

Huckabee 31%
Romney 27%
McCain 15%

Banned for posting five straight diaries.

Guess (0.00 / 0)
Clinton 37
Obama 33
Edwards 27
Richardson 2
Others <1%.
I'll say (0.00 / 0)
Edwards - 33%
Obama - 30%
Clinton - 27%
Biden - 5%
Richardson - 3%
Dodd - 2%

On the R side:

Romney - 29%
Huckabee - 26%
McCain - 13%
Thompson - 13%
Paul - 10%
Giuliani - 8%
Others - 1%

My Prediction (0.00 / 0)
Democrats

Edwards - 34%
Clinton - 30%
Obama - 29%

Republicans

Romney - 30%
Huckabee - 28%
McCain - 10%

My prediction (0.00 / 0)
I really have no idea.  If we're going with hunches, I think the DMR poll will be a boon for Obama

Obama: 34%
Edwards: 27%
Clinton: 25%

-----

Huckabee: 29%
Romney: 27&
McCain: 20%
Paul: 10%
Giuliani: 8%

I am in Iowa (0.00 / 0)
and after talking to a few people, I have come to a couple of conclusions:

1.  There is no real reason to think that turnout will be higher than in 2004.  When I asked people why they think turnout will go up, I found they really didn't have much of an answer.

Driving around Des Moines and Council Bluffs is an amazing scene:  I saw more yard signs for the the election of my town's school board in Florida than for a Presidential  Candidate of either party here in Iowa.

2.  only 1 poll had Kerry getting over 30 (he got 36) and none had Edwards over 30 (the highest pre-election poll had him at 23). 

With the press focusing on a three way race, the other candidates will melt to nothing, and two candidates will do substantially better than they are polling
Prediction 1: two candidates will get over 30
Prediction 2: Obama is for real.  I have long thought Obama is the equivelent of Bradley in '00: someone who would fade near the end.  Having come to Iowa, though, I think he is for real. 

My overall prediction:
Obama 35
Clinton 33
Edwards 25
ROF 7

In 2004 my prediction was Kerry 30, Edwards 26, Dean 23.

I learned from the best (0.00 / 0)
Chris Bowers and fladem taught me everything I know about how to track dem pres. primaries and polls. I am pleased that my predictions mirror yours.  Obama 37. Clinton 30. Edwards 28.
[ Parent ]
My best guess (0.00 / 0)
Based off the latest polls, turnout projections, and a little guy instinct:

Obama: 33%
Edwards: 31%
Clinton: 28%
Biden: 4%
Richardson: 2%
Dodd: 2%

And for the Republicans:

Huckabee: 31%
Romney: 28%
McCain: 17%
Thompson: 12%
Paul: 7%
Rudy: 5%

Prediction (0.00 / 0)
Entrance poll:

Clinton 30
Obama 30
Edwards 28
Biden 6
Richardson 4
Kucinich 1
Dodd 1
Gravel 0

Final Results:

Edwards 37
Obama 30
Clinton 28
Biden 5

Note: In my life, I have spent approximately three days in Iowa, all of which was prior to the 2008 campaign. I have no special knowledge of Iowans, polls, or... anything, really. This is just what feels right. If I got any of it right, I'll be shocked.

I also have no favored candidate. I'm voting Uncommitted in Michigan's primary.

prediction (0.00 / 0)
Dems:

Edwards - 33%
Clinton - 31%
Obama  - 26%
Biden  - 6%
Richardson - 3%
Dodd/Kuc. - 1%

GOP:

Romney -  35%
Huckabee - 31%
Thompson - 12%
McCain -  11%
Paul -  6%
Giuliani - 4%
Other -  1%

This is tough ... (0.00 / 0)
... but I'll give it a try/wild-ass guess:

Edwards 31
Clinton 30
Obama 29

Romney 33
Huckabee 30
McCain 15

Three serious ground game organizations on the Democratic side result in a practical tie.

One serious ground game organization (Romney) ekes out a win over an energized but unorganized ground game (Huckabee).


my web log.

Eh, let's be a little edgy: (0.00 / 0)
DEMOCRATS

Edwards 35%
Obama 30%
Clinton 28%
Everyone else <5%

REPUBLICANS

Romney 32%
Huckabee 24%
McCain 16%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 7%
Thomson 6%

Tim Wolfe

I see the paxil has started working! (0.00 / 0)
Obama  35%
Edwards 28%
Clinton 23%
Biden 8%
Based on the official results (0.00 / 0)
After all, Kerry didn't win the 2004 election.  So screw the entrance poll.

Democrats:

Edwards 34%
Clinton 32%
Obama 31%
Richardson 3%
Nobody else at or over 1%.

Publicans:

Huckster 29%
Oven Mitt 28%
St. John 13%
St. Paul 11%
Gramps 10%
Mayor 9/11 6%
Hunter, etc. dividing the remaining 3%.

Fun, Easy, Representative (0.00 / 0)
That's Instant Run-off Voting

I have no idea which worms will struggle to the top of the heap, but of those that appear to have a chance of getting into the White House - Barack Obama is the only one that does not make me feel like puking.

From me - that's a strong endorsement.



"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

Prediction (0.00 / 0)
Obama 34
Clinton 31
Edwards 28

I you want health care, work hard. If you want universal health care, vote for liberals.
Edwards 35 (0.00 / 0)
Obama 30
Clinton 25

Romney 30
Huckabee 28
McCain 14
Thompson 12
Paul 7
Giuliani 6

Expect vs hope (0.00 / 0)
It's really hard to separate the two.

Obama 32.4%

Edwards 32.2%

Clinton  30.4%

Other 5%

Huckabee 31%

Romney  28%

McCain  19%

Paul  9%

Others  13%

Here's what I want:  GOP total vote 50,000; Dem total vote 200,000, of which 60% are Dems, 30% I and 10% R.

Exploding heads among the punditocrisy and the economic royalists, panic among the GOP hbeads.  A long campaign that lets maximum numbers of states participate and lets us get a clearer understanding of the candidates.  Let it be so.


John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

Interesting to compare the OpenLeft poll to MoveOn's surveys (0.00 / 0)
Link to OpenLeft poll
Link to MoveOn surveys

The same ordering of the candidates, basically, but much different clustering.  It seems that Chris Dodd's recent appeals to and via the blogs (on telecom immunity, primarily) were successful in winning him a loyal following around these parts--but that his leadership on this issue didn't filter to, or perhaps resonate with, the portion of the progressive community who are not blog readers.

oh what the heck (0.00 / 0)
why not go on the record with a wild guess?

Obama:  35
Edwards: 27
Clinton: 26

Huckabee:  30.1
Romney:  30.0
McCain:  14.0
Paul:  11

What has John McCain done for veterans?

Open Left Straw Poll and Iowa Prediction Thread | 41 comments
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