Both Zogby and Suffolk are conducting tracking polls of New Hampshire. Here is the average of their results, with both polls conducted before the results of Iowa were known to all poll participants:
Given that these numbers will change based on Iowa results, it seems likely that Obama and Huckabee will rise, while Clinton and Romney will drop. This should make the Democratic side extremely close, and allow McCain to become the frontrunner on the Republican side. Edwards is a bit more of a mystery. Ron Paul will probably pass Giuliani, again.
These numbers are the pre-Iowa baseline. Among other things, it will be an interesting test of momentum to see what happens after this. An Obama win won't help McCain, especially since it seems Romney was starting to pull back on McCain just before Iowa. Ah, if only Romney had won Iowa--then he would be well on his way to being the least electable Republican nominee since Barry Goldwater.
Obama needs Iowa, too. If Clinton holds her ground in New Hampshire, her 19-point national lead could start to kick in, and Iowa could become old news very quickly.
STATE BLOGS
