Also according to the poll, which was conducted entirely post-Iowa, McCain is walking away with it on the Republican side, leading 39%-25%. ARG stunk terribly in Iowa, predicting Clinton by nine over Obama, and thirteen over Edwards. However, their 2004 New Hampshire polling was pretty good, so this might be accurate, or at least worthy of consideration.
This poll shows a 16-point net bump for Obama in New Hampshire. Rasmussen showed a net bump of 13 points. Zogby, in the one day after Iowa, supposedly showed an 11-12 point bump. Suffolk shows a net bump of around 10 points. That makes for an average of around 12-13% net for Obama so far, which is actually very close to the momentum projected by fladem six months ago.
I feel as though, in order to have any chance, Edwards needs to finish in second in Iowa, too. Obama doesn't need to win anymore, but it sure would put him close to the nomination if he did. Clinton will probably still be competitive after New Hampshire, but unless she wins Obama will take the national lead. And right now, things look pretty good for Obama.
Only three days before New Hampshire, and Obama is going up. Tonight's debate should be big, since it is one of the final chances for Clinton and Edwards to change the media narrative before Tuesday. At this rate, Obama is already ahead in New Hampshire, and looks well positioned to win.
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