Exciting to see! (0.00 / 0)

Thanks, Matt.

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by: sb @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 19:01:21 PM UTC

Large turnout means one or both of these: (0.00 / 0)

1.  Obama wins by 15 points.

2.  Romney beats McCain.

I think at least the first is very likely.

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.

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by: avenged savant @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 19:02:16 PM UTC

I just want Edwards to come in 2nd (0.00 / 0)

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 19:13:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Whoa, if that happens, how humiliating for HRC. whew. (0.00 / 0)

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.

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by: avenged savant @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 19:29:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah ... (0.00 / 0)

and she would almost be forced to drop out then .. because if she keeps losing .. she'll look like a laughing stock in the Senate

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 19:56:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My view is that unless she has a really effective hail mary play (4.00 / 1)

in the can, then she will quit sooner rather than later to avoid tarnishing her reputation as well as her husband's legacy.

Do you agree?

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.

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by: avenged savant @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 21:24:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes ... (4.00 / 1)

because where does the bleeding stop if she loses NH?  Obama will crush her in SC(due to demographics for one) .. and Obama has an awesome GOTV machine .. so much has been made about independents voting .. but I think Obama's crew will get out the vote no matter whether the primary is open or closed .. and I saw Donna Brazile(sp?) on CNN just before .. she said Clinton will be shaking up the campaign tonight no matter what(though it seems Carville and Begala aren't coming on board)

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:32:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Making organizers (0.00 / 0)

Matt -- if you are looking at new tools for organizing, take a look at this effort. It may have something of "fighting the last war" about it, but some folks have found it helpful.

I believe in field - but not for more than 3-5 percent bumps, tops. Gotta be running before the wind on an issue to beat that.

Can it happen here?

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by: janinsanfran @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 19:38:50 PM UTC

3 to 5% (4.00 / 1)

Field won it for Gore in 2000; the Republicans stole it back.

Field won it for Bush in 2004 although some of the state numbers were a little odd.  Like Kerry getting 700,000 more votes than Gore in Florida but Bush getting a million more IIRC. 

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 19:52:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll be the lone dissenter here (4.00 / 1)

  I think Hillary Clinton will do better than expected, perhaps even finish first. And NO, I am NOT a Clinton supporter.

  Barack Obama should have done a little bit to douse the expectations. EVERYBODY's expecting him to blow Hillary away now -- even certain prominent usually-cautious bloggers. So if he wins by, say, three to five points, the narrative will be "Clinton shows remarkable staying power after a horrible week: Was Obama's surge imaginary?". And the momentum will flip around like a pancake.

  I suspect Hillary will pick up a few sympathy votes from Democrats who might not be particuarly inclined to support her but who are appalled at the media's piling upon her, and who think that, her faults as a candidate aside, she deserves better treatment than she's been getting. Whether there will be enough of those to tighten things up significantly, who knows.

  But the possibility is there for a strong Hillary showing. And all the unseemly (and very premature) gloating by Obama supporters isn't helping -- Obama's as inevitable now as Clinton was in November.

  Just be careful. This thing ain't over.

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

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by: Master Jack @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:16:15 PM UTC

Well, it's started... (0.00 / 0)

Clinton  3
Edwards  3
Kucinich  0
Obama  17
Richardson  2

http://www.talkingpo...

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by: SandThroughTheEyeGlass @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 00:42:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]