Exit polls versus pre-election ARG poll.

by: Lester

Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 02:38

  . . . . . .  ARG  . .  Exit Poll
  . . . .  HRC BO  . HRC BO  .  Diff
Men . . .25  44  29   40  -19->-11
Women 35  37  46   34  -2 -> 12
Dem . . .34  37  45   34  -3  -> 12
Indep . . 25  44  31   41  -19->-10

Clinton did much better with women and Democrats than expected, but the interesting thing is that Obama didn't drop that severely -- rather, Clinton's boost seems to have come at the expense of other candidates.  Also interesting, ARG's likely voters were broken down as 63% Dem, 37% Indep, whereas the actual voter breakdown was 54% - 44%.  So although Obama didn't do as well with independents as predicted, there were more independents to ameliorate that.

Other interesting tidbits from the exit poll below.  These are just Clinton vs Obama numbers that caught my eye, though it has no particular bearing on the pre-election poll screw-ups.  The oddest thing were the Iraq numbers...

Debates important 40 32
Not  33 43

First time primary  37 47
No  38 33

Age
18-24 O
25-29 C
30-39 O
40 and up C

No College  48 30
College  36 39

Econ
Very Worried (58%) 40 36
Somewhat  (40%) 36 44

Finance sit improving (14%) 31 48
Worsening  (28%) 43 33

Income
< 50,000 47 32
> 50,000 35 40

Withdraw troops from Iraq
As soon as possible 41 34 !!
Keep troops in Iraq 24 51 !!

Top issue
Econ (38%) 44 35
Iraq (31%) 35 44
Health (27%) 37 38

Top cand quality
Change (58%) 28 55
Cares  41 19
Exper  71 5
Elect  26 52

Non-white women 50 38

Union household 40 31
Non 38 39