Nevada Prediction Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 15:58


First, think about Nevada. Then, watch this video:



Now, what do you think will happen in Nevada tomorrow? I'll stick my neck out and go with Obama 37%, Clinton 36%, Edwards 26%, Kucinich 1%. I rarely pick someone who is behind in the polls to win, so this is a bit of a leap for me.

Uupdate: Why do I think Obama will outperform the polls in Nevada? My rationale is pretty squishy, as I simply think Obama will perform better in caucuses than polls show. And why do I think that? Caucuses draw out activists disproportionately to low-information voters, younger voters disproportionately to the elderly (a caucus is kind of like a rally, so advantage Obama), second choices matter (advantage Edwards and Obama, as they typically lead in second choices), there are no absentee voters (advantage Edwards and Obama, since they started so far behind), and the Wilder effect can't play a role (advantage Obama). I don't have a huge amount to back all this up, but I guess we will find out tomorrow. Call it the inflated Clinton caucus poll theory. In fact, throughout this campaign, I expect Clinton to do better in primaries than polls show (due primarily to advantages built up during absentee voting, and secondarily to a possible Wilder effect) and Obama and Edwards to do better in caucuses than polls show (for reasons listed above). That's my theory, and tomorrow is another chance for it to be tested.

Update 2: We should start seeing the earliest returns around 3-3:30 p.m. eastern, tomorrow. We should have all of the returns by 5:30 pm eastern.

Chris Bowers :: Nevada Prediction Thread

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Nevada Prediction Thread | 44 comments
I predict Clinton by 3% (0.00 / 0)

Clinton 39, Barack 34, Edwards 20. Rest uncommitted. (0.00 / 0)
I'll be watching the results with a cup of tea, Earl Grey, hot.

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Oops other way around. Obama wins, Edwards third. (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
even though I am an atheist, I'll say it: (0.00 / 0)
from your keyboard to god's ears!

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.
[ Parent ]
Hillary Will Win Nevada (0.00 / 0)
Even though Obama has the biggest union in Nevada behind him he will lose.
Prediction (0.00 / 0)
Obama 39%, Clinton 37%, Edwards 20%

Romney 32%, McCain 28%, Huckabee 16%, Giuliani 10%, Paul 9%, Thompson 4%

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

Chris: just curious, (0.00 / 0)
why do you think Obama might pull it out in Nevada?  Do you think he has the better ground game?  Do you have questions about the polling?  I really feel like I have no idea what is going on in Nevada with this caucus...
Superdelegates (0.00 / 0)
I posted this earlier today, but in an older thread...
10 points to anyone who can find me a 100% complete list of superdelegates. I have scoured the internets and failed to find it. Most of the time, the description of superdelegates is vague, stating that they are elected politicians and "party officials". No one seems to know what "party official" means precisely. Maybe I'll ask Hu Jintao.

I'm upping the stakes - 20! points if you can find a list!

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

NV (0.00 / 0)
Nobody knows what will happen in NV so Chris, I don't think you are going out on a limb.

My prediction:
Obama 36
Clinton 34
Edwards 28

But who knows.

[ Parent ]
I think I found my answer (0.00 / 0)
Courtesy of MyDD:
http://www.mydd.com/...

And a link therein:
http://www.demconven...

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

[ Parent ]
Polls will be dead on correct (0.00 / 0)
Not because it is easy to poll the first ever meaningful presidential preference caucus in NV, but because it is hard, and the polling outfits have karma on their side after NH.

C 41, O 37, E 21, Kucinich and Uncommitted 1.

Tomorrows contests. (0.00 / 0)
Clinton will win Nevada.

Clinton  41
Obama  38
Edwards  26
Others  5

Romney will win Nevada.

Romney  37
McCain  21
Huckabee  17
Paul  9

McCain will win South Carolina.

McCain  31
Huckabee  26
Romney  19
Thomspon  13
Paul  7
Giuliani  4

> 100 n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Those crazy Republicans. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
On a different topic... (4.00 / 2)
What is this video I just watched!?

Q...Q!? hahaha

strange.


"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

Prediction (4.00 / 2)
In a surprise upset, Ron Paul will take first place on the Democratic side and the Republican nod will go to a resurgent Vermin Supreme.
Clinton wins, as expected (0.00 / 0)
It is clear that Clinton is expected to win, and always was.  I think Obama will close the gap to within 10 points and prove he is a real threat in states with strong unions.

..

Ok, I'm just practicing for the spin room.  I have no freak'n idea what will happen.

Those who neglected the impact... (0.00 / 0)
........real labor, not executive boards, have on this caucus are shocked when Edwards wins followed by Clinton.

Obama's 'Ode to The Shining City on the Hill' a place where union folks can't afford to live has not gone unnoticed thanks to the evil Stoller.

Hey, maybe I'm wrong but if I'm right we're in for wild ride to the finish!

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

Obama edges Clinton, with Ewards (0.00 / 0)
a distant third. I just don't trust that caucuses accurately reflect the preferences of polled likely voters.
Obama will win because... (0.00 / 0)
...I think he has momentum. I refuse to back that up with any evidence.

I am excited to see how the Republican race turns out. Second choices will probably be interesting because there are so many 'top tier' candidates.
It is my understanding that the Repub caucus is identical to the Dem caucus in Nevada. Meaning, both need 15% thresholds and both can not move from the candidate after the first round if they meet their threshold.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

Giuliani wins 100% on both sides (0.00 / 0)
His stealth campaign finally pays off.  Subsequently all other candidates concede the general election.  The hero of 9/11 stands up when no one else can.

In other news, Matt's next 70s lovin gets violently suppressed by the AG Kerik.

Clinton wins narrowly... (0.00 / 0)
...but the big development will be that these results:

C: 39
O: 36
E: 25

combined with a big win for Obama in SC (O: 45, C: 33, E:22) will force Edwards out of the race, and the beneficiary will Obama in California and Florida with the anti-Clinton voters.

Lede will be "Edwards Implodes" (0.00 / 0)
Clinton 48
Obama 40
Edwards 12

Here Is What the MSM Will Say (4.00 / 1)
Obama had the biggest union backing him, so what went wrong?
[ Parent ]
here's mine (0.00 / 0)
Clinton 44
Edwards 27
Obama 26
Zombie Reagan, Annoyed 3

Huckabee could edge McCain in SC: he was locked in a tight battle with Romney at the end of Iowa, but won big, despite Romney having a better organization. Right now he's behind in SC but closing to a near-tie in some polls.

Obama will win by less then 1% or slightly more then 1% (4.00 / 1)
I agree with Jerome when he states Caucuses helps Obama for some obvious reason.

First of all , this is a public vote and i will later state why this could help Obama among hispanic caucus goers.

Obama is the kind of candidate you want your friends to see you publically supporting because of our country racial devide...Many people may want to show they are above the racism toward minorities and Obama gives them the best chance to show people they aren't racist , but on a private setting , people may not feel presure to outright vote for him....You could make a case this hurt him in NH which is a primary/private vote.

I believe Hillary's Hispanic vote will not come out because they may not want to "publically" be seen going against the Culinary which is like a family member in the Nevada Hispanic community.

On the other hand , the Culinary will be able to turn out all of Obama's hispanic supporters and as long as the Clinton's supporters don't show up , Obama will be able to dramatically cut into her Hispanic support.

Don't be surprise if the Hispanic vote looks something like this:
Hillary:45%
Obama  :40%

Those numbers would obviously be a huge blow for Clinton because she expects to blow out Obama among Hispanics.

The Black vote is firmly on Obama's corner and if he couples that we a split among the hispanic demo , Obama will eventually win this.

On a final note , Obama drew about 1,500 people in Elko and 1,600 in Reno tonight...Not saying he will win but Hillary drew about 800 in Elko today , so Obama clearly outdrew her there.

If Obama wins Reno and Las Vegas , i believe he wins this.

If you are latina resident of Nevada, could you please (0.00 / 0)
maybe try and answer just why is it that the latino vote is so pro-Hillary?  And please don't say the black-hispanic rivalry or something along those lines because it is a myth.  in congressional races, they both vote very very similarly.

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.
[ Parent ]
Hispanics (0.00 / 0)
I believe name recognition has a lot to do with her large lead among Hispanics.

If Bill Richardson was a viable candidate a-la-Obama , i believe he would have easily cut into Hillary's support among Hispanics.

Hispanics really do not know Obama in compare to Clinton who's husband was well-liked although not as much as the Black community.

There's a bit of a silent embarrassing rivalry between black/latino , but i think her strong name recognition has much more to do with her strong lead among Hispanics.

Obama gets more support then Edwards among Hispanics , so i think the theory that Hispanics hates African American is extremely overblown.

Again , don't be surprise if the exit polls shows Hillary not running away among Hispanics because the Culinary Union is an institution among Hispanics in Las Vegas and i think many pro-Hillary hispanics may skip the caucus out of respect for the Culinary.


[ Parent ]
Hillary Effect (0.00 / 0)
I expect Clinton to do better in primaries than polls show (due primarily to advantages built up during absentee voting, and secondarily to a possible Wilder effect)

Everyone forgot the Hillary Effect (or Closet Clintonism):

She said a lot of people don't want to say they are supporting Hillary Clinton because it is an unpopular thing to say and causes harsh reactions. So, they keep quiet about their support but vote for her anyway. "I have been supporting Hillary, and having to apologize for it, for a year. I can easily see myself being vague about it when asked by a pollster, but in the privacy of my voting booth I will vote for her enthusiastically."

Clinton 39%
Obama 36%
Edwards 24%
Kucinich 1%

Banned for posting five straight diaries.

Wild guess... (0.00 / 0)
Clinton =  37.4
Obama = 35.6
Edwards = 25.8
Kucinich = 1.2

Not that I have a clue what I'm talking about....just rolling the dice.

After New Hampshire... (0.00 / 0)
you want me to make a prediction after the fool I made of myself with New Hampshire?

I'll just predict that Steve Wynn makes money at the tables tonight.

I Just Have a Bad Feeling That the "Thing" is Over (0.00 / 0)
I think that a resolution is coming that HRC is going to be the nominee.  I think she wins Nevada in the high single digits, Obama has one last, emotional hurrah by winning South Carolina and HRC prevails on Super Tuesday.  No logic, just a feeling.
Nevada Prediction Thread | 44 comments





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