Romney's enormous victory in Nevada tells us several things about today:
Nevada Polls Way Off: First, Romney looks like he won with about 46%-47% of the vote, beating McCain by more than 30%. In fact, it appears that Ron Paul finished second in Nevada ahead of McCain, and did so by at least 5%. Both of these results are nowhere near the pre-caucus polls, none of which had shown Paul higher than fourth, Romney ahead by more than 15%, or McCain below 19%. So, our first lesson is that Nevada polls are entirely unreflective of Nevada results so far.
Activists and organization matters. Once again, Ron Paul has decisively outperformed the polls in a caucus, and McCain has under-performed. Romney, the favorite of the Republican establishment, did very well. The lesson here, I think, is that organization and activists matter, and that McCain has neither. Clinton's edge with the establishment, and Obama's edge with unions and activists should matter. Then again, since Todd Beeton thinks that Clinton's final rally was better attended than Obama's, perhaps Obama does not have an activist edge in Nevada.
McCain is in real trouble: Almost all of McCain's support is soft support and media driven, which is why he will do poorly in caucuses and closed primaries as the campaign moves forward. If he loses South Carolina tonight, which is starting to seem quite likely, there is no way he can be considered the frontrunner anymore. On the Republican side, there are very few open primaries on Super Tuesday, and even fewer if one discounts the southern primaries where Huckabee will be favored should he win South Carolina. If McCain goes down tonight, he will have a difficult time getting back up.
Interesting results so far. The Democratic caucuses in Nevada are gathering as I finish typing this.
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